Hello Nick, I don't really agree with you analysis on the first hand K7cc.

I remember that very thoughtful analysis you did on the homework hand in BrickandCrai's video where you said in the video you would call based on the price and how Zack didn't have that many value combos, nut value combos are hard to make etc and how he has enough bluffs in his range to make it a fine call.

I think here you call based on the idea "That nobody bluffs taking this line" rather than having a clear picture of what his range is.

I would certainly call here based on the price and given he has very few better hands in his range in  my opinion.

When UTG is 23bb deep is he likely to flat UTG1 with 66/33? I don't think anyone reasonable calls these here, especially pre-ante when UTG being short doesn't really have a big incentive to open light and may have a range that looks like 77+, ATs+, AJo+, KQ, KJs, QJs.

Those PPs will play horrendously post-flop at this stack depth and especially against that range.

Does he have bigger flushes in his range?

Flatting A9cc-A2cc in this spot is the same as the PPs and I don't think people do it. So that leaves AQcc and ATcc as you said in the vid. I think AQs is a bit of a tight flat preflop and a lot of players we 3ball to get that in pre but maybe he thinks in 700 re-entry that he should be a bit tighter so we can give him that.

That means on the river his only nut combos are 88, AQcc, ATcc and that is an incredibly thin value range.

Your bet also looks somewhat polar on the river so shouldn't he jam all in with his value range? Rather that making this strange sizing.

I also don't think people almost ever take pot control lines on the turn with sets even in 3bet pots. Look how small the pot is here, I think he is going to want a build a pot with his big hands especially when he can boat up on the river and win a huge pot when you have a strong hand.

I think against good regs like yourself also he won't expect you to fold any 8x hands on the turn so he has no real incentive to "trap". So I think his only real traps on the river are exactly the nut flush which he has only 1 or 2 combos of.

It is possible he had that and thought he had the board crushed and then maybe he would put you in a weird spot on the river by raising.

His bluffs actually make more sense such as Ac Qx, Ac Tx and who knows maybe an 87s, 98s that he is making some bizarre elaborate river bluff with a boat blocker.

I look forward to your response. Your video certainly got me thinking deeply about the hand so even if you don't necessarily agree with my analysis, I should thank you for that.

6:15 you say that your options are to check call or check raise, why do you not consider leading an option?

26:34- "Potentially folded a king there, I doubt it."  If you doubt he folds a king to that bet then your bet makes no sense.

Satellites are not a way around your bankroll limitations, especially not on PokerStars when you can just take cash for them. Winning a satellite to the Super Tuesday doesn't make it a good idea for a player with a $20K bankroll to enter it on his own dime.

QQ:

-question whether it's a good strategy to 3b so polar
in bb's spot, as junky hands like J3s/K4o do not complement the value
portion of your range well, and those bluff hands give you very few
opportunities to barrel with equity when a competent player will flat
your 3b fairly frequently 100bbs deep, think the bb's 3b sizing is bad

-turn, probably should prioritize your Jx ahead of QQ in your turn calling range, which puts QQ only above gutters w/ no fd and hands like 99 or 6xthat you take one card off with, slightly explo call (? what do you think; I have you defending around 2/3 your turn range if you're defending 2p+/Ax/QQ+/Jx/gutters+fd)

-river, excellent imo, think you could go bigger tho as you might with your 2p+

---

A4s:

-mixed feelings about this hand b/c I think that board hits him about as hard
as it hits you, maybe just slightly less hard, but you do say he has no
AK; how good of a barrel spot this is depends heavily on who your oppt
is imo

---

K8o:

-I think this is a spot where some people overdefend preflop. BB wants to defend 40% (K8o is 38%) vs somewhere between a 13-18% opening range with an SPR of 5.5. 

K8o vs 13%

              equity       win       tie          
Hand 0:   67.021%  66.37%  00.65%   { 55+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 1:   32.979%  32.33%  00.65%   { K8o }

K8o vs 18%

              equity       win       tie      

Hand 0:   63.691%  62.86%  00.84% { 44+, A4s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, ATo+, KJo+, QJo}
Hand 1:   36.309%  35.47%  00.84% { K8o }

-How much equity do you expect to realize? How much edge does that result in? What kind of postflop investment do you have to make on avg to realize your edge? (someone should coin a phrase for this, like 'outcome profile' or 'path profile') I'm skeptical.

-Quickly, say we are vs an 18% range and we realize 2/3 of our equity, that means we have a ~6% edge in a pot of 1165, or ~70 chips. 70 chips w/ optimistic assumptions, and you raise your bust % when you have 33 bbs back. Is 70 chips enough for most regs? (Probably? You tell me, I don't know that many regs) What happens to your edge if you make pessimistic assumptions?

-Turn, why not c/r turn?

hi nick.  second hand against tony gregg.  curious the line you would have taken with AsJx in this same spot.  on the 4sQh9s2s3d runout when checked to on the flop.  Im assumed you would flat AJ preflop,  before i asked for the rest of your line

Hey Nick, 

What is your "fun idea" about next vids? looking forward to watch it