hey man, thank you!
Regarding the QQ hand: In hindsight I felt like pio would have wanted to fold right away with ICM to the checkraise, I did use ICM here and it still wanted to call. However you are right when we think about the average tendencies of our opponents here in this spot, I also think that most regs probably dont bluff much here, as its not a favorable board for them and they cant really represent much of a value range. Usually when a reg takes a weird line, esp when they cant rep much, we should proceed with caution (emphasis is on "usually" here though, always some opponents where that doesnt apply).
So yep I I do think your assumptions have a decently high likelihood of being true here and simply folding on the flop is probably just best and exploitatively higher ev for us. Its a spot in which if he still is somehow balanced, we dont make that much in $ev, he is unlikely to be overbluffing, whereas if he has zero bluffs, we are just giving ev away to him.