Maximizing EV - Career Management

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Maximizing EV - Career Management

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sauloCosta10

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Maximizing EV - Career Management

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sauloCosta10

POSTED Dec 08, 2020

Saulo Ribeiro aka sauloCosta10 starts a series aiming to improve your overall ability to make money in poker. He approaches the concept of maximizing EV from many more areas than just playing technically correct and in the first installment focuses on proper career management.

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AlexinTraining 4 years, 4 months ago

Congrats on the new contract, I always look forward to your videos and am happy we will get so many more. Are there CFPs that work with part-time players and allow for less monthly volume? Your points about vision and knowledge are excellent. I think a lot of part-time players have a vision that includes poker success and advancement, even if the end goal is not to ultimately quit their regular job. These players take the time to study and strive to achieve expertise, but it sounds like without a CFP this is borderline impossible to achieve. Private coaching is obviously an option for part-time players, but that lacks a lot of the benefits you discuss that a CFP comes with in terms of allowing for moving up in stakes quickly.

sauloCosta10 4 years, 4 months ago

Thank you AlexinTraining

Are there CFPs that work with part-time players and allow for less monthly volume?

Pretty sure there are. Some even have contracts based on number of hands instead of months/years, which to me seems like an adjustment to players that can't commit to poker full time. In BrPC we focus mostly on full time/wannabe full time grinders, but we've also taken part-time grinders in a few occasions.

About part-time players, if your long term vision is to have poker as a lucrative hobby and you want to move up in stakes, then yeah I don't really see how trying to improve on your own would be superior in any way than entering a CFP. Private coaching is also suboptimal because you will have to spend a significant portion of your bankroll to get classes and you will still have to deal with bankroll constraints.

simrud 4 years, 4 months ago

A lot of respect for coming out and saying that CFP sans staking is bullshit! Especially on rakeback deals etc. I stake and coach a couple guys myself and I would not like what I see in the mirror if I was taking someone's profit w/out staking.

sauloCosta10 4 years, 4 months ago

Thanks man. Yeah I can't believe how I fell for that in the past. Simply doesn't make any sense, unless its a significantly favourable deal to the player.

RunItTw1ce 4 years, 4 months ago

When your video sauloCosta10 first started out it reminded me of "A-game Master class" with having a long term vision and missions are the baby steps you take to achieve that vision. If you don't already have a structure set up for your 16 videos, I would recommend checking out his course because it seems to be some what aligned with what you are trying to do. Where Eliot's focus is more on life and performance and not actual poker technical training.

Without going into too much detail, I would assume the CFP model being 100% stake is taking 50% of the profits? Is there a minimum level your students start at and do they previously need to be winners already to be part of the program?

I was thinking if it's 200NL starting at 3bb/100 as example that is $6,000 per 100,000 hands a student makes. Now 100,000 hands is still a small sample and I assume 3bb/100 is also on the lower side. Now let's double that to 200k hands and $12,000. How much coaching can a student get for say $3,000 and keep the other $9,000 in profits and achieve similar results? If a student pays for private coaching opposed to joining a team and giving up $6,000 ($3,000 additional) for the similar knowledge? The EV Of joining a team needs to be really substantial with all the resources available these days for poker at a cheaper price.

I think the one strong point you made is moving up in stakes before the bankroll allows because you see the student's potential. I am not sure long run CFP makes sense because let's be frank that is a lot of money the student could be giving up. The amount of resources here at RIO or other training sites such as upswing also individual work with PIO is a lot of knowledge a student can obtain. How much more expertise can CFP actually offer?

If a student is using a lot of these resources and they are still stuck on trying to move up, but can't find the solution or BR won't allow them because of living expenses etc, then I guess it makes sense. Do you have any graphs of students like the one below, where a student double their win rate using your model? Just wanna weigh private coaching cost vs CFP model.

sauloCosta10 4 years, 4 months ago

When your video sauloCosta10 first started out it reminded me of "A-game Master class" with having a long term vision and missions are the baby steps you take to achieve that vision. If you don't already have a structure set up for your 16 videos, I would recommend checking out his course because it seems to be some what aligned with what you are trying to do. Where Eliot's focus is more on life and performance and not actual poker technical training.

Will check it out, thanks for the recommendation

Without going into too much detail, I would assume the CFP model being 100% stake is taking 50% of the profits? Is there a minimum level your students start at and do they previously need to be winners already to be part of the program?

At BrPC we typically only take players that are at least already beating 25nl. Everyone that joins starts playing either 50nl or the limit they are already beating (in cases where someone enters as a 100nl+ winner).

I am not sure long run CFP makes sense because let's be frank that is a lot of money the student could be giving up. The amount of resources here at RIO or other training sites such as upswing also individual work with PIO is a lot of knowledge a student can obtain. How much more expertise can CFP actually offer?

Mildy disappointing that you have this opinion even after watching the video :/ My whole point was exactly that for the scenario you described its not even close for 90% people not beating 500z for 4+bbs.

that is a lot of money the student could be giving up

This very sentence shows a pretty huge false belief. Student is not "giving up" any money by entering a CFP deal. What will happen is you will make much more money than you could have made by yourself. The profits you will be "paying" for the coaching and the staking would not have existed if you played by yourself.

The amount of resources here at RIO or other training sites such as upswing also individual work with PIO is a lot of knowledge a student can obtain. How much more expertise can CFP actually offer?

Imagine you are an aspiring basketball player. You just play with your friends and sometimes competes in amateur leagues on weekends. All of a sudden Lebron James offers to take you into his academy, where you will be able to ask him unlimited questions, practice in a court designed by him alongside other aspiring basketball players who have been breathing basketball for the past several months and learning from Lebron himself. You will be able to watch Lebron play right before your eyes, see every movement of his hands and feet. Lebron also commits to keep updating you with every new trick, move and play he ever develops and applies in his game. He buys you basketball boots, hires a psychologist to support you weekly with your life and career, and then he comes up to you and says: this is my number. Text me or call me anytime. I will be there for you. In exchange for all that he wants you to sign a contract that predicts that if you eventually end up in the NBA, you will pay Lebron half of your earnings for a year.

But then you look at all that and instead decide to watch tutorial videos in the internet and practice shots in your neighbourhood half court.

How crazy would you be for doing that? There is precisely 0 difference between that and what you asked (at least in BrPC).

We have many success cases in BrPC. I don't want to use this thread as a BrPC ad, but since you asked I can provide you with these graphs. This is our best success case so far, Tirelli moved up from 50nl to 1knl in 11 months. I personally took 3 years to achieve the same playing and studying by myself. This is another one. Tomanari moved up from 50nl to 500nl in 7 months. It will likely only take him another 2 to be moved up to 1knl. It took me 2 years to go from 50nl grinder to beating 500nl. This fella just got into the team and moved from 50nl to 200nl in 2 months.

By the time these guys reach the end of their contract they will be set up to consistently make hundreds of thousands of dollars for the next several years. Essentially what we do is catapult their career earnings in a way that is impossible to do by yourself in the same time frame. Its not just about making X dollars in Y months. Its about how much more you can make in the next 2,3,5 years in the end of those Y months. And again, this is only the monetary spectrum of the deal. They have built relationships with people that will do the same and will keep pushing them to their full potential. They will have had opportunities to develop themselves in many other areas of their lives in the process. They will have unlocked a business perspective in their poker career that would otherwise not happen.

Anyways, its really not even close. But ofc, everyone is entitled to their own opinions. As I said in the video, what I say comes from my experience as a player and a backer. If I had the opportunity to go back in time and I had serious companies providing staking deals I would certainly not have spent 2 years grinding millions of hands between 10nl-100nl for almost no significant profit.

RunItTw1ce 4 years, 4 months ago

Student's blog

Thought I would share this link that I came across as I was looking for your website, one of your students made a blog and I guess he is also a head coach there (based on website). Read every post of his right now, it's very long but pretty inspiring. Mostly trying to get into a routine and develop his mental game seemed to be his biggest struggle with volume.

You guys ONLY do 18 month contracts? Here

Should definitely update your website if you want to grow the business, sharing some of the graphs you did would be a good start, "before & after" type of thing. Friendly suggestion, not trying to tell you how to run your business.

Anyways thank you for the response and glad you didn't go hard on me LOL. I know some people come off disrespectful or "know it all" type of thing. Wasn't my intention. Good luck growing your company.

forCarlotta 4 years, 4 months ago

sauloCosta10

Hi there, just a quick question.
How many times can a player re-apply if he get turned down?
I might apply in the near future, but I want to maximize my chances to get in the team.
So if there is a cap I might work better on both my poker and mental games

jayhood187 4 years, 4 months ago

Nice video. Reinforced a lot of good stuff. I always thought cfp was a scam, but this video helped me realize theres probably cfps that can be very beneficial.

sauloCosta10 4 years, 4 months ago

Thank you @jayhood187. I believe many people share your view about cfp deals in cash games overall, mostly because of how some companies treat their students. Its very easy to give no staking, sign someone for 12 months, give a few coachings sessions and then milk profits of someone who is basically improving by themselves. I was once part of a deal where I had no staking, had 1 coaching session per month and that was it. I then quit in the 3rd month of a 12 month contract. Proceeded to climb the limits and built my own company where now I put a lot of effort into providing a service that has the player's growth as maximum priority. Hopefully BrPC can change this bad imagine of a business model that can (and should) in fact be the best possible option for an aspiring player.

darchas 4 years, 4 months ago

Fantastic video. Very useful and interesting and something not often addressed. I like the recognition of differing career paths. I often think there is a vast market of serious recreational players out there that aren't really catered to or respected that much. Often the term recreational is used as a synonym for 'fish' which often isn't the case. I think there's a whole chunk of players out there that play recreationally and their approach is to carve out a decent 2nd income.

Lots of great advice in this video and has really made me look at my poker goals in a new light. Thanks!

Frankie Carson 4 years, 4 months ago

Hey sauloCosta10 thanks for shedding some light on a part of the poker sphere that has always been in the shadows for me.

The Tirelli and Tomanari graphs you posted was for 'all stakes'. Curious what type of bb/100 are they making at 500nl and 1,000nl in Terelli's case and over x sample size? Thanks.

sauloCosta10 4 years, 4 months ago

Well considering that winrate is not fixed and even if it was it would only converge after several hundreds of thousands of hands, I'm afraid it will take a long time before we know their winrate at 500nl and 1knl. By that time they will be probably already playing 2knl-5knl. Saying that they have 5bb over a 70k hand sample or whatever in this or that stake would be completely meaningless

Frankie Carson 4 years, 4 months ago

So given this, how do you know when its time to move your students up stakes when you'll likely never achieve a statistically meaningful sample size (on a per stake basis that is)?

sauloCosta10 4 years, 4 months ago

Me and Zinhao and all the instructors at BrPC have climbed through the limits that their students are playing, so we know exactly what it takes to beat each stake. We coach these players, we analyze their games, we review their Databases, we get feedback from our psychologists about their current mental state and IRL circumstances. We talk to them, try to sense their level of confidence, we try to know whether they have been consistent with their studies or not.

With all this information, there is no need for us to confirm a players' ability to beat a certain stake through their results over a large sample. We know exactly when it is the right time to move them up.

We also know that from one stake to the next there is not all that much difference. If you have work ethic and the proper methodology, there is no reason why you wouldn't beat the next stake if you just keep doing what you are doing. Regs get a bit better but rake gets lower. As long as you keep improving and avoid reg battling for more than half of your volume, you should be fine.

Jeff_ 4 years, 4 months ago

Hey Saulo, I think video is great and path you choosed is as well what this site needs. Plenty of techincal game material but rather less mental(other poker) videos.
Would be very great if you stress about importance long term thinking in next videos as well. This is just very crusial, I see many players( myself included):
_checking daily results(weekly,montly) and making conclusions from them
_got upset from bad session (one session; five sessions)
_try to chase losses(play insanse long session)
_study rather inefficiently in a sense for long term(you covered it in of your first videos for elite, or essential I dont remember)

sauloCosta10 4 years, 4 months ago

Thank you Jeff_ ! I will for sure address a lot of those points you mentioned in future videos of the series. 2 videos from now will be a mental game video "Dealing with variance" (oops, spoiler :D)

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