Saturday MTT/SNG Session Review (part 2)
Posted by Stephen Chidwick
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Question about superknockout hand. Is it really that good to get it in with 64s there or other hands that are that weak? I understand your getting a great price and everything.
As Denis said, can you talk more about the bounty stuff. Seems like your forcing it way too much with weak hands. I.e. the 64s hand.
Denis/Christian, what part of the analysis do you disagree with?
Ty for your vidéo.
04'15: JTo I don't understand, you want b/f turn?
Correct, I don't think he is shoving worse hands
16'49: You think OVB>OVB shove vs CS?
I think that a lot of draws are getting checked 4 ways and the bounty structure really favours forcing lots of money in on the earlier streets
27' Which Strategy with 66 vs the BU/ 3b for 5bb if the BU 4 bet? Fold if the BU 4bet shove?
with 30BB, you adopt for a 3 b/c?
Yes, I would be folding to a 4b shove from the button but 3b/calling with 30bbs…ripping vs the open would also be fine with 30bbs
27' with 25BB, you decide to 3 bet shove?
Certainly
Great stuff. Would love to see a video on detailed hand analysis with the Holdem Recourses calculator (so not just the push/fold calculations). Also would like to see deeper analysis of spots early on in superKO's or hands from progressive KO tournaments.
I don't think the HR calculator would be the correct tool for this kind of analysis. Afaik theres nothing rly out there that takes bounties into account…just gotta try and do math and figure it out yourself.
I didn't mean do the bounty analysis with the HR calculator. I meant in general these are the things I would like to see in future videos. So in general a video on how to work with the HR calculator, and a video on early stage KO tournament strategy.
Ah ok, yeah I'll definitely be doing a HR soon. As for KO's it seems my opinions are controversial ;)
Great video! More parts pls!! :)
Thanks FlySooHigh =)
Ty.
27' with 66, which strategy with you stack 40BB if the BU decide to 4 bet? 5 bet AI?
Vs weak players, do you prefer flat as deep your little PP?
With 40bbs I'd probably be going with it yeah. Against someone who I expected to call wide vs my 3bets I would prefer flatting.
Its not the analysis that I disagree with. I disagree with just going HAM with any 2 cards as long as we cover the other opponent in the hand.
Well thats what the analysis concluded...
Its hard for me to articulate my thought process well for this situation so bear with me. It seems like you created a slightly +EV situation (cold 4b 64s to call) when you can mostly likely do the same thing with better hands that generate greater edges than just taking the first spot u cover someone to get allin. I think its kind of similar to say c/r with a draw and getting the right price to call making it +EV doesnt mean that c/r was the best play.
Im not sure on the math of this, but I feel like you have such a big edge in the tournament itself that you shouldn't basically be willing to get it in so light for a small edge for the bounty
Can you explain your thought process when it comes to resteal spots? E.g software tools do not take into consideration fold equity.,would it be as simple as knowing your oppenent folds to much to resteals so your doing it light, and if he calls corectly your waiting for hands to resteal that are ahead of his range?
I am getting truly butchered in this area at the most, any training tips would be much appreciated
Benny
The HR calculator has a reshove tool that takes into account FE…I will include one of these hands in my next vid.
Hi Stephen, great video as usual. I don't quite understand why you add 3k to pots when a player is AI in the superKO. My reasoning in such spots has always been the following: (1) at the start of the tournament, I buy in for 300 and get 3000; (2) 3000 chips is worth 300 dollars, at least early on; (3) the bounty is 150; (4) therefore I need to add to add half the starting stack (1500) to the pot when a player is AI.
Can you please tell me where I'm going wrong? Thanks!
Hey Konrad, glad you enjoyed it. The problem with your logic is that if you only account for the regular part of the prizepool you are getting 3000 chips but only for $150…the bounty portion is completely separate and as it is the same amount as the regular part of the buying it has the same value so it is worth 3000 chips also.
I think that 64s hand is just massive spew. Yes we know that the bounty is worth 3000 chips, yes once you are faced with the 5b shove you're getting odds to call, this much can be proven by math. But unless you somehow think that specific spot is great for cold 4b (as in getting heaps of folds as well) it's just got to be terrible to put yourself in that spot in the first place. I mean, you can 3bet 99% of your stack with 72o in a normal tournament as well and when the guy shoves you can shrug it off going "yeah I'm getting 100:1 here so obv I gotta call, unlucky me that he has a hand".
I feel like the part you're missing out on in your analysis is the EV for all future bounties as a covering stack. I know this is impossible to quantify precisely (and I'm not a math guy), but with your stack before the 64 hand takes place what's the average amount of bounties you're going to get in that tournament? Like ~3-4 I'd say? But when you get that in and lose which happens most of the time once you go to the races, your future "bounty EV" goes down to like 0,2, not to mention your tournament EV. I know this isn't the correct way to begin to calculate it because the bounty value decreases as blinds go up and thus most future bounties are going to be less valuable than the current one you are chasing, but still I just feel like there's going to be wayyyyyy better spots opening themselves up for you in the near future that you can ditch that without thought.
(In case it was left unclear I'm not arguing against your last call against 5b which is standard once you get there... but you shouldn't get in that spot in the first place imo)
Why do you think we are going to get 3-4 times more bounties than the average person? If that was true we would have a 100% ROI in the tournament without even taking into account the regular part of the prizepool. You do make a valid point about future bounty EV though. As for the spot I do think it's a pretty decent cold 4b spot since chinatown is 3betting the only guy at the table he covers that he can iso so if he is bounty aware he should be super wide himself here and I should get a lot of folds.
Oh and please include the HR reshove stuff in the next vid that you talked about a couple of posts above, shortstack numbercrunching stuff using those programs would be great!
Hey, sorry this doesn't let me respond to your comment directly. My bad - I watched the vid on my ipad earlier and then forgot about your exact stack as I commented a day later without checking - for some reason I thought you had double starting stack there in which case I think my estimation of your avg bounties would be close to true (?).
Anyway I think the future bounty EV is something that's nearly impossible to quantify but I'd give it at least a little bit of consideration because it's definitely something the direct math regarding X spot doesn't take into account. I like these tournaments a lot since they are such mindfucks, heh. Definitely seems like the only way to really screw it up is to play nitty and never be the covering one.
And yeah fair enough about the legitimacy of the 4b spot - you didn't elaborate that so much in the video and made it sound like it's automatic which is why I think so many people commented on the same hand, if you had been a bit more throughout on why you think you'll also get folds a lot I think people would've been less inclined to argue about the hand. Anyway good stuff, I always enjoy your vids :)
Nice vids! Another live series of a sunday MTT session (4-6 tables showing) would be awesome!
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