Sunday Million: Early Table Captain Gets All In a Bunch
Posted by Sam Grafton
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I like this format but my favourite format is the classroom style like you used for for the triple barrel candidates video, learned so much from that, can imagine it is quite time consuming though.
Thanks for the great content as always
Duly noted. Thanks for the post.
I like seeing postflop analysis for MTTs like this. So much seems to be based on preflop analysis which is great, but personally I struggle postflop more than pre. So thanks!
Happy to help.
Thank you Sam, great to see how a champ like you attacks these fields that we alle face so often. I do have a question about the last hand where you r/c 26.5 bb w QJs btn vs sb jam (sb is jamming 50bb eff. vs. bb). I´m always a bit lost in these spots. Did you have any knowledge about your opponent? Obviously, vs aggressive regs you kind of do have the equity to call off but vs most recs or tight opponents it could end up quite a disaster as their range just always has you crushed there. Generally speaking I tend to believe the SM population is not jamming as wide as they could here (>20bb), a lot of regs actually adapt their tightness in these fields "to avoid variance" as you pointed out earlier. Ofc it feels a bit dirty leaving yourself exploitable and folding.. Seems like you are proposing not worrying about the general tightness and just going with your game (preflop), is that right?
It definitely perhaps a less clear spot that I accounted for and you're definitely right that we should account for how deep our opponent is with the big blind. While it means that likely they don't have top of their range, as being deeper with bb provides an incentive to play a non-allin three bet range here, it also means they may not have the bottom their range which we do well against.
Generally speaking, however, tightness and low variance doesn't get it done in these big fields I would just stick with whatever our preflop game plan is. There's a lot of chips to accumulate!
You talk about making exploitative folds. At 16:20 (3b pot with KQs on AQ8m) what do you think about just folding vs cbet? You said yourself you are going to play cautiously here. And I don't even think your hand is a clear continue in GTO.
That min donk bet with QTs was really cute. I don't really understand how you can see this spot and realize that our range just wants to donk for 1bb. It seems really unintuitive to me.
I was really surprised by range donk
Didn't consider foilding in game or vs the population. You really think a solver wont call? That's interesting to me because I had so much confidence the flop call was standard.
You can see, though, from the way our opponent played their hand that a fine exploit against the player pool is to call perhaps even wider than a solver on flops because we over realise down the streets. I make the same point on 554 woith KQ. The player pool doesnt punish light flop calls with appropriate aggression down the streets - in most spots anyway.
Glad you liked the lead spot, think it's reasonably cutting edge right now and wanted to share it with you guys.
Hi Sam nice video as usual. On the first hand my only concern is people overplaying their KQ vs a small cbet size (i know its 4way but sometimes they only see the size and think theyre ahead and xr KQ)
Yeah I mean that is a small concern. The way i reconcile myself to the thought that I might be facing this kind of inadvertant bluff is that if they do have say KQ all the other strong hands will make more than they should, and indeed our raises already made more than they should as likely they should jam that hand pre.
can you post some assumptions and range analysis on the QJs hand in the end?
Well my thinking in game was it's a call at 30bb and we only have 26bb. However, when we remove some of the low pairs plus T9 and/or QT from the sb range it becomes a small losing call. Perhaps in retrospect given the player is an unknown we might want to pass.
yes, given villian shoves almost 50bb effective against the bb and he is unknown we can estimate a rather tight range with little to none of the bluffs you're ahead of, at least until we have further info. I tend to overfold this spot a lot and I'm pretty happy about it.
For the showdown at 18m you say opponent should bluff river with T9hh for third pair but player has less than PSB left. What would you suggest the sizing be in this spot from their perspective?
Think it's a good river jam for pot. Gives me a big problem with lots of my range.
I like the video up until the QJs call off. It makes no sense to me. Like it's literally AK almost always when people make a shove that big. I mean sometimes it's 10s or Jacks or a low pair, but the vast majority of the time you're in bad shape. I stoved it versus a super generous range, all pairs, 87s, 98s, T9s, All blackjacks, All suited wheels, and A5 off. You're not getting anywhere near the odds to call even in a dream scenario IMO.
I was very surprised by that hand I feel like I would snap fold in game
You’re tough player Nate keep it up
I mean I'm almost certain that a solver would always call of here. If you think people aren't calling off QJs here you should absolutely pound on them with sb jams.
Hi Sam great video, really enjoyed the QdTd hand. When you approach the big field Sunday tournies do you generally find yourself using a strategy which consists of taking the high variance spots because of the big field size and how do you balance that with the assumption that pool is going to be far more weighted to being value heavy in all in situations rather than finding the correct bluffing frequencies?
Think that you only want to avoid variance when approaching the money or when super, super deep. On a Sunday if you bust you can always fill the table with a different profitable spot. Hopefully, your'e in a position where you have worked a bunch off the table and have a very robust game. If you just take that game and run it in a field like the Sunday Million you're going to print. There is no need to make large deviations.
QJs call off for 22bb effective seems a tad loose. This is a call against someone you know will 3b shove hands like J8s, 9Ts, etc. Do we know that villain is doing that? Also, villain is 48bb eff vs BB in case he wakes up with a hand. I tend to think we should call tighter than QJs in that spot
That seems to be the consesus in the comments and I think you summarise the spot very nicely.
What are your thoughts about limping the QJss last hand in the video? Feels so dirty putting in chips and folding there on the btn w such a high equity holding. Limping gives option to call a raise and play pot in position.
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