Hey lospollos, thanks for the message and glad to see you're enjoying the content.

16:25 Sorry I should have specified between in theory and in practice. In theory from these positions with ICM to be considered we should be betting upwards of 2/3-3/4s of the time with range (as we are able to apply more pressure with our stack), in practice I think an exploit would be to ramp up the cbet frequency, but to use a smaller sizing as population don't check raise enough and they also over fold flop slightly. So I think theory wise we would mostly be cbetting with the ICM consideration somewhere around 66-75% of the time, as an exploit I prefer cbetting around ~90% of the time (will be player dependent).

You do raise a fairly good point about BB having a tighter defending range and I think it is more likely they fold some of their offsuit Kx/Qx/Jx and because of this we will need to very slightly decrease our cbetting frequency, but I still think as an exploit + ICM somewhere between 85-90% if very reasonable.

Ryan Henry
thanks for the reply
ran it with ICM with 56.5% opening range for BTN and that's how it looks

https://gyazo.com/6306b1474dba6ee71b18e1c235132242

without ICM and same ranges we check behind 65%

lospollos

Hey mate, thanks for taking the time to run the sims on this situation.

I just pulled up a sim I had on this situation at chip EV (I haven't run this spot with ICM), the output I had was to bet 51% of the time, using 1/2 pot only, so I assume we are using slightly different ranges preflop.

I think with the ICM implications the opening ranges you inputted look fairly accurate, although I could see myself opening slightly wider in the suited portion (T2s, 94s, 84s, 74s pure) I would also see myself opening J7o, but potentially folding Q6o, K4o, but overall I think it is a very reasonable range and will give a very similar output.

A couple of things I would be interested in is firstly, what range you have given villain preflop, secondly have you tried to node lock to give an accurate estimation of populations check-raise and floating range to see how this would change our flop strategy?

Overall though it looks you are right and I have been over cbetting this flop ~20-30% more than equilibrium. I will run a node locked sim when I have time and will see how drastically this effects our cbet strategy.

Ryan Henry

thanks for the reply mate (:
I will take screenshot of BBs range that I gave there and will node lock my estimated OOP reaction vs Cbet when I'll have a little bit more time, great action this days (:

would be interested to see your output as well
GL in the meantime (:

Sorry for the delay, but I finally got around to looking into this at ChipEV, but it would translate well to ICM.

This is our strategy at ChipEV at equilibrium.

This is villains strategy at ChipEV at equilibrium.

This is our strategy in response to villains node locked flop strategy.

This is villains flop strategy vs 1/2 pot bet.

I think villain will be very limited in bluffs in this situations and its possible they even bluff less than what I have given them. The output from this is just to range bet 50% pot. What are you thoughts on this?

Ryan Henry

thanks for the response mate
It looks like a reasonable and kind of disrespectful response that you locked for OOP, but I think it is reasonable
based on this assumption it makes sense that we want to bet a ton. good to see that we can just range bet in this case

this is the range I assigned to BB in my original sim -
https://gyazo.com/a74a27aa720bdbb6125d9ab7e21bb8a5

I think given the 2.5x sizing, the ICM, and the 0.5 ante in the pot it's probably going to be even good to start folding the worst suited hands like 92s 82s 83s 72s etc, and the lower offsuit Kx and Qx as well

I will re-run the sim now in order to node-lock (saved as a small tree)
I will give it some under check-raising assumption but will just cut the bluffing freq in like 1/2 and keep the same value range and we'll see how we should play vs this assumption as well

Ryan Henry

kind of obvious but when I locked 1st underbluffed strategy to OOP that cuts like 40-50% of the bluffing range, our cbet went up (from 35 to around 50 in my sims case) and than when I locked a very underbluffed strategy with with like 10-15% of the bluffing combos or so - we went up closer to 75-80% flop cbet

the difference is mainly because of the slightly different ranges that we assigned

anyway I guess we'll just have to try and estimate how largely underbluffing villan will be

nice one mate (:

Yes I completely agree with you that villain should adjust their preflop range, I just used a previous sim as a template at chipEV, but I should have changed it so it was more realistic to the situation.

When you say a disrespectful response, I'm guessing you mean I haven't given villain very many bluffs? I actually think with the ICM as well as how population play I may have given them more bluffs and what we would actually see in practice lol.

In terms of estimating their bluffing frequency I think a very useful stat to have it checkraise on flop, if this is very low I will Cbet much more often, especially in an ICM situation, as you are likely to see population lower their aggression frequencies with ICM.

Ryan Henry
cool, I might be giving too much credit to people in these spots yeah

Thanks mate, good to hear you've enjoyed it. Bottom of the get in range for value is JJ

Thanks mate, good to hear!