Hey mate,

20:06, from memory this is final 2 or final table. Theory wise 55 would be a fold here in both of those situations. If our opponent was really really wide I can see this being profitable, also if they were a bit wider than equilibrium and lets say it was a small field I can see this again being a profitable shove (would be making very close to 0 in that situation though). If you can be bothered running it then it would be interesting to see, but I also just had a quick look in GTOwiz then and it would most likely be 77+ (depending on the exact situation in game)

You're right I just ran this spot myself and it looks you're right with us wanting to have shoves. My output said we mix between shove (37% of the time), check 16% and B31% 47% of the time.

While this strategy is more optimal at equilibrium, we need to ask ourselves a few things, Do we think our opponent is calling the correct range vs a shove? If they call too many flushdraws we would want to shove less. I think its likely population call K high FDs here, I also think its likely we see some KT or QT call here with a club at some frequency. The way I would approach this situation is I would still range bet small as the EV difference is very minimal, also I think its somewhat likely our opponents will call too wide vs a shove (meaning we want to shove less often with range), and lastly it can be easy to make with frequencies, eg 37% shove, 47% B31% and 16% shove, which might actually make range betting 1/3 a higher EV strategy due to human error. Anyway just my thoughts around exploitable adjustments and for simplicity given the EV difference is tiny.