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MTT Fundamentals #8: Game Selection, Variance, and Volatility

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MTT Fundamentals #8: Game Selection, Variance, and Volatility

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Ryan Martin

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MTT Fundamentals #8: Game Selection, Variance, and Volatility

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Ryan Martin

POSTED Oct 31, 2018

Ryan Martin recaps the previous installments of his MTT fundamental series and shares a bit of what's going on in his life both on and off the tables before jumping into the discussion of tough subjects that are key to maintaining success as a player.

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Solid 6 years, 5 months ago

Wow really mind-blowing video for me, excellent info. Thanks Ryan

I have a couple of questions. I play 11-55$ MTTs 4-5 times a week and I want to know your opinion in a couple of possible scenarios.

1) How bad idea is to play slow sats to bigger MTTs?
2) I understand bounty mtts have more variance. What do you think is a good proportion of this games in our schedule taking in account more fish play this format?

Great work man!

Ryan Martin 6 years, 5 months ago

No worries, man - glad you enjoyed

1) Urgh, tough question as I'm not someone well versed/with much familiarity with satties. Intuitively I'd say if you're playing those bigger field, decent structure satties into bigger events which also have larger fields and decent structures (those big seat guarantees to the Sunday Million come to mind), my guess would be those are fine. I'd fade satties that are fairly reg heavy.

2) Bounty MTTs are fascinating to me because I'm not 100% on how they're influencing volatility in our schedule

  • Fun players love them (+)
  • Even in the event we do not cash we often win back fractions of our BI (+)
  • Min cash is smaller than that of a normal freezeout, usually ~ one BI (-)
  • Unlike regular MTTs where all of the money is in top 3'ing, all of the money in PKOs goes to the winner (-)

Gun-to-my-head I'd predict that the PKO element results in less 'severe' downswings (i.e. rarely just go straight down 300 BIs or something which is somewhat normal in regular MTTs) while likely lending themselves to small/steady losses/breakeven stretches over larger samples as a result of actually outright winning these tournaments being so important (rare/hard to accomplish).

Bonus: I think a lot of these bigger BI PKO's are much more attractive options than their bigger BI (especially with reentries) freezeout counterparts (much better fun player:reg ratios since they appeal so much to said fun players)

DSantanna87 6 years, 5 months ago

Hey Ryan, I appreciate your effort, excellent video! Couple of questions:
-What do you recommend for someone raising their bankroll in the micro limits with huge fields? Just stick to the SNGs turbos with insane volume?
- You mentioned winrate which is difficult to calculate without a good sample. What's the importance you give to the ev bb/100 to evaluate your MTT game?

Thx once again.

Ryan Martin 6 years, 5 months ago

Hey, glad you enjoyed!

Um, I'd say stick to what works best for your schedule/you/what you enjoy. Low stakes tournaments are still - and always will be - super profitable. If it's possible I'd recommend spreading some funds across multiple sites and adding in some Party and 888 (fields still super soft, bit less variance w/ smaller fields). That said, if you want a bit more schedule flexibility/more of an ability to start/stop sessions quickly SNGs are a great option.

EV bb/100 is super important in MTTs. You're pretty much never going to get a sample in terms of # of games in MTTs to draw any reasonable conclusions from it so EV bb/100 is my go-to and something I pay a lot of attention (probably too much attention even)

Ryan Martin 6 years, 5 months ago

Hey guys full disclosure I just moved to Vancouver yesterday so just sorting out everything in the new place and then I'll get to these questions!

Cogitus 6 years, 5 months ago

Can you comment or do a video on how live MTT professionals survive? After watching this video and factoring in travel expenses it seems impossible, but many of these professionals do exist.
This video was very eye opening for me, thank you!

Ryan Martin 6 years, 5 months ago

haha honestly I don't have much of any experience in the live MTT realm, but the crux of your comment is accurate. It's very difficult on average and you're just never going to come close to getting a sample size indicative of anything worthwhile. If we're being honest, I mostly ignore what's happening in live poker. Will tune in for the odd Super High Roller Bowl or PAD cash game but don't consume much in the way of live poker content outside of those things.

BrunoCaetano 6 years, 5 months ago

Thanks for the content, Ryan.

I could not watch it in better time, as I just got away of a staking team and decided to start playing with my own bankroll. So this topic is so important for me.

Two questions, please.

  • Do you think we should consider in any way our Average ROI? Of course I read the description of what it means in Sharkscope, but I didn't got it clearly. I found out that players who didn't had a big hit have a higher Average ROI than it's Total ROI. Anyway, do you think it is a number that we should approach or just ignore as it is not the real one?

  • I got curious about your SNG schedule. There is any video about it or can you comment more so that we can have a better idea about the field size you most play?

    Thanks again.

Ryan Martin 6 years, 5 months ago

I'd mostly ignore anything ROI-related in MTTs for sample size reasons. Focus on your EV bb/100 to get an idea of just how much you are beating the games for. Assuming you're not taking too many big shots and playing very few turbos, the higher your EV bb/100 the less likely it is you experience a massive downswing/losing year/etc.

Re: SNGs, I'm basically just a 6-max turbo regular on Pokerstars and Party right now playing everything from $15-$200

Philipp 5 years, 6 months ago

hey Ryan,

quick question reagrding EV bb/100. That is Allin Adj BB/100 for PT4 right?
Any idea what are standard EV bb/100 winrates for MTT regulars? maybe on the lower and the higher end?
And regarding SNGs what is a decent EV bb/100 winrate? Is it similar to MTTs or does it differ?
Thx a lot!
(These things help a lot in understanding and accepting variance and on how much we are beating the games)

aramsay 6 years, 5 months ago

As a Canadian, recommend any other small sites? Ive heard really good things about Winamax but understand Canadians cant play on there. Currently playing 888, Party (a little) and Stars (strictly 18 man SNG as massive reg laden fields aren't worth it imo). Ps. Go Leafs

Ryan Martin 6 years, 5 months ago

Um I personally also play on BlackChip Poker...Winamax and .es are apparently very soft as well...if you're in B.C. or Manitoba I believe you can also play on a provincial site called PlayNow (haven't played there since moving to Vancouver but I'd assume it's quite soft)

VeganISSTBesser 5 years, 10 months ago

but this tfnc guy only plays turbo mtts/sngs and i am sure he never even had a loosing day ;-)
great video Martin <3

but should i mix in 6max Hypers and Hyper Satz oder 18man, 45 man, 180s?
i struggle so much do make even a good mtt schedule ... only nl or plo horse?

guilis 5 years, 9 months ago

Hey Ryan, great video! Do you happen to know where I can find that 2 plus 2 analysis that you said about mid/high stakes turbo MTT´s?

Philipp 5 years, 8 months ago

hey ryan,
i was playing around with that calculator aswell and noticed that the variance is much lower as soon as you reduce field size. but one thing that i cant figure out is. do we have the same roi in a 200 and 2000 field mtt?
thx!

Ryan Martin 5 years, 8 months ago

No, definitely not. Max achieveable ROI is going to depend on a bunch of factors like player pool composition (how many fun players, how much are they losing for, how good are the regs, etc.), payout structure, blind structure, freezeout vs PKO, etc.

General rule of thumb would be that assuming all other things being equal (i.e. we're comparing a $55 200-person freezeout on PS to a $55 2k-person freezeout on PS w/ identical blind level structure) your achieveable ROI is going to be >>> in the 2k-person field. Then I assume (not 100%) there is some inflection point where your ROI becomes so much higher in the 2k-person field that the difference in variance becomes negligible (it's possible I'm wrong and variance is still way more massive in the larger field MTT)

Philipp 5 years, 8 months ago

okay regarding the 55$, 109 etc i totally agree but i guess you could argue that when we talk about 5$,11$ and 22$ there arent that many pros and if pros play these buyins they focus on the big GTDs tourneys. so you could argue that for these buyin ins even (or especially) the small fields are very soft and therefore your ROI is basically the same but you cut out a lot of variance, no?
another question: do you know what decent ROIs are for those 180man lower buyins?

Ryan Martin 5 years, 8 months ago

so you could argue that for these buyin ins even (or especially) the
small fields are very soft and therefore your ROI is basically the
same but you cut out a lot of variance, no?

Again, I don't think so. And I believe that's to do w/ ROIs just being more naturally capped in the smaller field tournament.

Looking at the PS schedule from yesterday, there is a $22 5k at 1am PST and a $22 20k at 10am PST. The 5k got 295 runners and the top three (3) payouts were $1057 (48 BIs), $664 (30 BIs), $489 (22 BI's); the 20k got 1428 runners and the top three (3) payouts were $3976 (180 BIs), $2149 (98 BIs), $1576 (72 BIs). Every payout in the top four (4) of the 20k got paid more than the winner of the 5k did.

Even though the 20k guaranteed is going to have better regulars in it than the 5k guaranteed tournament, it's going to have more than enough fun players losing at decent clips to make up for this. Something else that's going to help your max achievable ROI in these bigger field tournaments is that there is more money on the line at the end --> higher stress factor --> people playing poorly (almost always in the direction of playing too tight). It's a very lucrative spot for a good player to find themselves.

So yeah, I still think at the lowest stakes the achievable ROI is going to be considerably higher in the bigger field events.

do you know what decent ROIs are for those 180man lower buyins?
I do not. Sharkscope should lend some insight here, check their leaderboards feature. My guess would be that in something like the $2 turbos one could obtain an ROI > 20% and I know a few guys who still make a killing grinding the $3r's full-time.

13Strike 5 years, 4 months ago

Interesting enough the results don't include mental breakdown over the sample. The simulator assumes that your ROI remains constant, I'm pretty sure that would, at the very least compound the fall, if not cause it to become exponential.

Flight_Risk 5 years ago

So I just watched this for the second time. The first time I watched I was all over the place, playing tons of different structures. After, that I buckled down and stuck to reg speed MTTs.

I've struggled a lot since then. I play for hours only to bust out almost immediately after late reg. It's been tough.

However, I enjoy the On-Demand turbo SNGs at ACR and I do well in them. In fact, after a few days of playing reg speed MTTs, destroying my bankroll, I go back to the turbo SNGs to build it back up.

For whatever reason I do well enough at them to be able to depend on them to build back my BR.

I think it's because they're shorter and they have fewer players (anywhere from 20 to 60 usually). The finish line seems more real to me. But maybe that's because I've always done good with them. And not so good in reg speed.

Would you be able to offer any advice (even briefly) on this?

Should I stick to what I seem to be good at until I can build my reg speed chops? Or should I try to avoid these turbos like everyone says?

I know l need to get with a coach who can help me iron out specific problems in my game to solve this. I'm doing that ASAP. But if you have any insight on this I'd really love to hear it.

Anyway, thanks for this video and all the others you put out. They all have really helped me a lot!

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