Raising Turn C-bet
Posted by Julian Kopanskiy
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I'm not sure about the A3h river bet. Villain have more Flush, AdA, KdK, QQ, TT, 55, QTs ..(j9s probably do not open this). Hero rep 55, 44, TT, 88 .. Qjh, KJh, j9h, Axh ... some Axd, middle suited diamonds ... but realistically Hero probably check raise with strong Axd (wheel flush draw, pair+flush draw) QJd KJd 98d (that blocks Tx and part of his backdoor continuing range)... so I'll say hero has more hearts than diamonds. I just think this river barrel is quite risky cuz Qd is better for villain's range. And if we were to bluff river with some missed heart draw .. I think KJh, A9h, 79h are better candidates. If villain is folding all his Tx one pair hands ... does it justify bluffing here with all missed heart draws? Also In practice I'm not sure they are folding overpairs with a diamond in hand.
And what do you think donk leading overbet turn line as a comparison? Thank you
Sorry for late reply guys, it's Christmas time now in Ukraine)
I don't like donking turn. Since we just ch/c flop our range is a bit weak, and if we want to donk some bluffs ott we also need to add value hands, this will leave our cheking range very weak. Ott this is still a good spot for our opponent to overbret, and if we will start splitting range this will be even more appealing to him.
From my FR experience most opponents will fold KdKx on the river, or they even could b/f turn, J9s without FD is also folding turn. So his range most of the time is diamonds, hearts, sets, some % of overpairs. And on average with my image, and this large sizing i think opponents might fold 44, so this will leave enough FE for us. But yeah looks marginal.
First hand wold be interesting to see how the raise preforms if you weight the frequencies that he fold AK ott.
Cool video man!
Glad you liked it.
If we put him b/f AK 50%, EV of the raise will be 9.5$ (4.75bb), EV of call slightly negative.
Crev file
First AT hand on A74r Jd board co vs mp. Given the dry nature of the board, the narrow value range and the lack of bluffs wouldn't it be better to delay the agression until the river? Especially if opponents tend to fold AK AQ etc to turn agression, it would be beneficial to delay the raise until the river to gain more value.
I meant to delay agression with our whole range, not with AT specifically. We can gain more value with our value hands by waiting until the river.
The turn actually brings a lot of draws. And on a lot of rivers we will not be able to raise our sets (dimond, T; also 3,8,K,Q will not be very good for us). So we need to charge his draws and get value from his 2pairs, sets right here. Probably optimal strategy would be to raise 77 and JJ on the turn, and slowplay AJ and 44 to the safe river.
Hi Julian,
Re: first hand. You've mentioned in many videos the equity required to call a turn cbetand you estimate it to be around 45%, why is this so high given that we need 30% equity to call a 75% bet with 1 card to come (in this case villain bet around 1/2psb)
Do your estimations include some factor regarding having to fold rivers so the equity we need is higher to avoid such a situation where we call call fold too much?
I really enjoy your videos by the way. I play mostly FR and have above average wr over about 7million hands but have been struggling recently after adding some 6max into my game. My FR game has suffered and your videos remind me not to overcomplicate things in a FR setting.
I like this hand, my A game would use this hand as a bluff also but recently I have been neglecting to turn top pair into bluffs in such a spot and have been too passive.
Also In my games (ACR) pretty much nobody folds AK vs a a turn raise here and ive started to lose confidence and feel I don't know what I'm doing anymore (on biggest downswing in 7 million hands that just doesn't seem to end) because I would fold AK vs a turn raise here but had started to feel it was a mistake. I'm sure AK is a fold though right?
I keep trying to remind myself not to get sucked in to how the rest of field is playing because there is a reason my wr has always been above average but whenever I start to follow the field my wr suffers.
45% equity: usually i refer to this when we are OOP, since our range will be quite obvious after ch/c, ch/c vs two cbets, we will most of the time have some bluffcatcher, not much draws in our range and not much nutted hands also. In position this equity could be a bit lower, maybe 40%. This recommendation is right if: opponent is aggressive enough on the river and will be continuing on variety of cards. Solvers are using this 42-45% gap for calling with made hands also. I come to this while was analyzing hands in CREV: vs decent opponent range, and well balanced river continuation strategy calls with less then 45% appears to be negative EV on the turn.
For me AK would be b/f on the turn, or ch/c. Once again we need more then direct pot odds to justify calling AK vs a turn raise.
Obviously you need to take into account opponents b/f freq when justifying a bluff raise.
KQo 2nd hand. Are you bluffing spade and club rivers with this combo?
Spade is definitely a shove, club a bit tricky. It's also not bad combo to jam on blank river. Since our turn ch/r will be value, FDs and hand like this, this seems to be one of the best candidates to jam blank river. KQ without a spade would usually be a fold on the flop.
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