I think the point of 3betting those 93s type hands is not that they are profitable in their own right but that you add them in occasionally to balance a polarised 3b range.
Ok let's say you have a 100bb open shove range of 100% of AA combos and 1% of 93s combos. Hopefully you can agree that people should be folding everything but AA vs this range. Therefore when you do shove 93s it will not be -EV. The same logic from this extreme example applies in a 3bet situation.
First, your example is only true vs an opponent exploiting your shove range. Vs someone playing reasonably jamming 93s is of course a huge mistake. Second, I don't think an example where you purposely play badly to make a particular hand +EV is very useful in proving your case.
I do think the reasoning you give ("add them in occasionally to balance") is the reasoning a lot of people use, but that does not make it true!
its nice to add hands that are slightly too weak to call i think. 93s is a little much, but a hand like 95s is decent if you are generally defending 96s+ (lets say to a 2.5x-3x rather then 2.2x). 95s will have close to zero EV as a call and it can be used more effetely in a 3b range to enable your value hands to get called more pre flop. it keeps calling range strong and has decent barrel potential and board coverage features
I tend to use stronger suited connectors, hands like T9s-T7s, 98s-96s, 87s-85s, etc plus some weak Axs/Kxs. All of those hands I do some mix of calling/3betting. Generally speaking I don't like the term bluff preflop, even the weakest hands have pretty reasonable equity. But I think using the stronger semi-bluffing hands makes sense vs someone defending aggressively/appropriately against 3bets.
I think you could consider increasing your bet vs missed cb frequencies, perhaps employing a smaller sizing, in order to take advantage of populations poorly constructed checking ranges and their tendency to over-fold. Also, I think the one-and-done strategy with AK on Qxx boards isn't great as flop is too thin for value, villain never folds better and protection isn't necessary. I think you should be looking to check/showdown or empty the clip at a frequency which balances your AQ+ value triples.
Around 24min you talk about folding/3betting 98s sb vs hj open and say you wouldn't 3bet unless hj folded too much to 3bets. Maybe unanswerable but in an exploit vacuum what would you say is folding too much/enough for you to 3b 98s for around pot size? Without postflop you'd need around 67% folds, add BB defending some %, postflop equity etc, what sort of fold% would you be looking for?
Good question that I don't have a great answer to. Some math you can skip:
Let's say he 4bets 15% of the time, folds f%, calls 1-f%, our EV when called is x.
EV = 0.15 * (-19) + (1-f) * x + f * 9
For EV = 0
0 = -2.85 + (1-f) * x + 9f
x = (2.85-9f)/(1-f)
When called pot will be $42 (less rake), we risked $19.
If he folds to 3bet 60%, then breakeven point is lose $6.38 when called. We need to win ~30% of the pot on average.
If he folds to 3bet 50%, BE point is lose $3.30 when called. We need to win ~37.5% of the pot on average.
Side note: winning 37.5% of the pot is NOT the same as winning the pot 37.5% of the time.
Rough estimates, but I think if he's folding 60% you can 3bet profitably, if he's folding 50% probably not.
Let's say he 4bets 15% of the time, folds f%, calls 1-f%, our EV when
called is x. EV = 0.15 * (-19) + (1-f) * x + f * 9 For EV = 0 0 =
-2.85 + (1-f) * x + 9f x = (2.85-9f)/(1-f)
I think you made a mistake here, he calls 1-.15-f% amirite? so you'd end up with x=(2.85-9f)/(0.85-f)
60% folds means you can lose $10.2 when called or win 21% of the pot.
50% folds means you can lose $4.7 when called or win 34% of the pot.
Rake at lower stakes would increase the win%'s required by 1-1.5 %-p
Winning 30% is enough with 54% fold vs 3b%.
So maybe 50% folds is actually enough or thereabouts?
Yep, good catch. Hm I'm a bit skeptical that 50% is enough from a gut feeling perspective, but perhaps doesn't need to be much more. Also of note is that we've ignored bb cold 4betting, so we get 4bet an extra couple %.
Not sure what you're asking, I have no program that shows me GTO plays. This might be the video I looked at some of Poker Snowie's preflop strategy (?) but Snowie does not play GTO.
Yes Steve, It's Poker Snowie!! Thank you. Btw, about poker snowie, i just downloaded it but it seems to be bugged (we have 1 free month trial but when i try to use it says the trial expired 595 days ago). Do you think it's worthy of buying the pro version?
Don't think I'm really qualified to say either way. I did buy the pro version and have not gotten my money's worth, but that's largely due to me just not spending nearly as much time with it as I'd planned to.
Great video! Don't you think hero turns his hand face up on the river so often. He seems to bet half pot for thin value a lot, surprised players weren't seeing through it and putting in check raises in spots where he clearly can't be strong. Is it ok to do this as long as your willing to call check raises?
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I think the point of 3betting those 93s type hands is not that they are profitable in their own right but that you add them in occasionally to balance a polarised 3b range.
If a hand isn't a profitable 3b, then you shouldn't 3b it.
0 EV is a thing..
The onus is generally on the person asserting the absurdity to show cause. Please prove to me that 3b 93s is >= 0 ev.
Ok let's say you have a 100bb open shove range of 100% of AA combos and 1% of 93s combos. Hopefully you can agree that people should be folding everything but AA vs this range. Therefore when you do shove 93s it will not be -EV. The same logic from this extreme example applies in a 3bet situation.
First, your example is only true vs an opponent exploiting your shove range. Vs someone playing reasonably jamming 93s is of course a huge mistake. Second, I don't think an example where you purposely play badly to make a particular hand +EV is very useful in proving your case.
I do think the reasoning you give ("add them in occasionally to balance") is the reasoning a lot of people use, but that does not make it true!
its nice to add hands that are slightly too weak to call i think. 93s is a little much, but a hand like 95s is decent if you are generally defending 96s+ (lets say to a 2.5x-3x rather then 2.2x). 95s will have close to zero EV as a call and it can be used more effetely in a 3b range to enable your value hands to get called more pre flop. it keeps calling range strong and has decent barrel potential and board coverage features
Steve, how would your 3bet bluffing range look like in that spot (BB v BTN 2x) against average reg?
I tend to use stronger suited connectors, hands like T9s-T7s, 98s-96s, 87s-85s, etc plus some weak Axs/Kxs. All of those hands I do some mix of calling/3betting. Generally speaking I don't like the term bluff preflop, even the weakest hands have pretty reasonable equity. But I think using the stronger semi-bluffing hands makes sense vs someone defending aggressively/appropriately against 3bets.
Fold AKhh pre vs that terrible nit!
I think you could consider increasing your bet vs missed cb frequencies, perhaps employing a smaller sizing, in order to take advantage of populations poorly constructed checking ranges and their tendency to over-fold. Also, I think the one-and-done strategy with AK on Qxx boards isn't great as flop is too thin for value, villain never folds better and protection isn't necessary. I think you should be looking to check/showdown or empty the clip at a frequency which balances your AQ+ value triples.
Thanks great video,,...
Around 24min you talk about folding/3betting 98s sb vs hj open and say you wouldn't 3bet unless hj folded too much to 3bets. Maybe unanswerable but in an exploit vacuum what would you say is folding too much/enough for you to 3b 98s for around pot size? Without postflop you'd need around 67% folds, add BB defending some %, postflop equity etc, what sort of fold% would you be looking for?
Good question that I don't have a great answer to. Some math you can skip:
Let's say he 4bets 15% of the time, folds f%, calls 1-f%, our EV when called is x.
EV = 0.15 * (-19) + (1-f) * x + f * 9
For EV = 0
0 = -2.85 + (1-f) * x + 9f
x = (2.85-9f)/(1-f)
When called pot will be $42 (less rake), we risked $19.
If he folds to 3bet 60%, then breakeven point is lose $6.38 when called. We need to win ~30% of the pot on average.
If he folds to 3bet 50%, BE point is lose $3.30 when called. We need to win ~37.5% of the pot on average.
Side note: winning 37.5% of the pot is NOT the same as winning the pot 37.5% of the time.
Rough estimates, but I think if he's folding 60% you can 3bet profitably, if he's folding 50% probably not.
I think you made a mistake here, he calls 1-.15-f% amirite? so you'd end up with x=(2.85-9f)/(0.85-f)
60% folds means you can lose $10.2 when called or win 21% of the pot.
50% folds means you can lose $4.7 when called or win 34% of the pot.
Rake at lower stakes would increase the win%'s required by 1-1.5 %-p
Winning 30% is enough with 54% fold vs 3b%.
So maybe 50% folds is actually enough or thereabouts?
Yep, good catch. Hm I'm a bit skeptical that 50% is enough from a gut feeling perspective, but perhaps doesn't need to be much more. Also of note is that we've ignored bb cold 4betting, so we get 4bet an extra couple %.
Thanks for the great vid!
What program are you using to see the gto plays?
Not sure what you're asking, I have no program that shows me GTO plays. This might be the video I looked at some of Poker Snowie's preflop strategy (?) but Snowie does not play GTO.
Yes Steve, It's Poker Snowie!! Thank you. Btw, about poker snowie, i just downloaded it but it seems to be bugged (we have 1 free month trial but when i try to use it says the trial expired 595 days ago). Do you think it's worthy of buying the pro version?
Don't think I'm really qualified to say either way. I did buy the pro version and have not gotten my money's worth, but that's largely due to me just not spending nearly as much time with it as I'd planned to.
Great video! Don't you think hero turns his hand face up on the river so often. He seems to bet half pot for thin value a lot, surprised players weren't seeing through it and putting in check raises in spots where he clearly can't be strong. Is it ok to do this as long as your willing to call check raises?
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