ProView: Simon Couling Reviews SmbSmbSmb on Running Bluffs
Posted by Simon Couling
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the 10-8hh hand, im not sure i agree totally with this river being a great bluff spot in general ? i just feel like its too easy for villain's range to pick up equity given this run out...given his likely defending range of suited high cards
Given the fact its extremely hard for villain to have a set or two pair (we block TT, KK and AK v likely 4-bet pre, and any other possible combos fold pre). His range otr will mostly consist of a lot of KQ, JJ, QQ, possibly KJs, which is going to have a very hard time calling here. Really only AJhh AQHH AJcc AQcc, are hands in his range he can call with, while we rep all the nutted combos much better due to preflop action and us being the aggressor.
1000nl is low stakes??
hand 1 seems like a bad turn bet. villain should have AK/KQ a lot and could easily c/s this texture.
hand 2 lol at that A9 being a losing call. more like printing money. he has no blockers to JT and the best possible blockers to our slim value range. we also are getting to the river with a spewy range including many extra bluffs, apparently.
Hand 1: I think its fair to say this villain 4-bets AK pre oop so we can largely discount it. If he has KQ then yes he might x/s which isn't ideal but its pretty much the only hand we are worried about when we bet.
A9 - I actually meant to say its a losing line, not a losing call. The x/r ott is a big mistake for reasons I mentioned. Considering its 1k 6-max he probably just about has to call otr but it is absolutely not printing money like you say, considering we shove all hands he loses to (including all combos of AQ, QQ, AA, 55, possibly KJ), and check back so many that he beats (AK, AJ etc).
The only bluffs we can have are J10, and random 9x (which would be a favorite to fold ott), and with these hands we might consider we have enough showdown vs a spewy villain range.
Very nice video. I'd like to see more in depth range analysis, especially on the first hand, like some kind of CREV/Flopzilla/Equilab analysis, or just old fashioned combo counting. Especially the turn I think is particularly interesting, I'm really not sure if he's folding enough / calling with worse enough to make this bet profitable.
In general, this is something I'd like to see more on. Determining whether to bluff the river or not is fairly simple considering the hand ends there, but when there are still cards to come it becomes much more complicated, also with regards to balance.
Thats a good suggestion and I will definately bare your comment in mind for a future video and looking into a handful of hands with super in-depth analysis.
I'm trying this. Being so far from nl1k...there is a good chance of me being out of track.
Shove the turn w/ that T8!...he got no 33/55/AK/KK/AA, we block TT and he fold all JJ/QQ/ Kx except KcXc and if he call random KQ/KJ we are in good shape still. He might even call some mighty Ax flush draw no pair like the one vilain had...and it feel puky to catch an heart and play river when he is on some AQh/AJh/QJh kind of a noway out trap....who knows.
I heard somewhere that shoving turn on 2 possible flush draw and mixed str8 draw + big card was an old school move back from 2008 nosebleed action but I do think it can be worth something to apply it in some spots.
Shoving the turn with 10-8, with all due respect is your worst option imo. He will call with the hands that crush us and fold all the hands we beat. Yes the bet might show a decent amount of success, but we are risking way too much to make it profitable.
Simon why don't you play higher than 100 ? :)
Some ppl would check raise all in turn T8s hand
Great video even compared to Elite Subscription !
Thanks so much!
Thanks, I glad you enjoy my videos!
brb depositing on party poker
Nice vid as always.
Given your analysis I am not sure why SMB would jam AhXh hands on the river in H1?
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