ProView: Phil Reviews Apotheosis (part 2)
Posted by Phil Galfond
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Hey guys, I'll just jump in and maybe talk quickly about some of the stats/random things that Phil couldn't pick up in the video because it went by quickly.
First, the most relevent stat line is the 2nd one (RFI by position) followed by the last one (which is fold bb vs btn/fold sb vs btn/fold CO vs Btn/3b Btn vs CO)>
Specific hands:
So the A7QQ hand at 27 minutes that we defended in the BB that checked to the river I was going to check raise bluff but I looked at his river aggression frequency at it was only 3% (over the 500 hand sample and 30ish river instances) which was why I just ended up folding.
The tag on the villain (maloyd) in the next hand on table 1 is just an old cash tag that denotes "reg".
I dug the JT98 hand up that was 4 way on the flop with fakeorreal short on the button. The link is here: https://www.weaktight.com/h/5575da1fa525115b67909d9b
the AKccJ3ss on Table 4 at 51 minutes I just assumed this guy was recreational (given stack size) and they generally just open too wide in earlier positions but I agree the spot is kind of dicey. I may or may not have looked up how many tables he was playing so I'm not actually 100% sure he's recreational. It's just hard to remember that there are regs who play PLO with stacks < 500 relatively frequently unlike NL where anyone with a stack < 500 is a recreational player > 99% of the time probably.
Hey, if u please have time would you write other stats too so it would be better to follow the video?
Thank you
Yea sure. I've since updated my HUD so I don't remember every exact stat but I'll post my HUD here (as best I can remember). I will say however that if you watch part one the relevant stats were displayed on screen at the start of the video (which is probably easier to follow than the text blurb that's about to follow)
Line 1: VPIP/PFR/3B (total)
Line 2: RFI by position
Line 3: Fold vs 3b by position (the extra stat is because CO Fv3V is split into IP/OOP, and this won't be that relevant since it's Omaha)
Line 4: Barrel stats. By Street. IP then OOP. (I.e. IP flop, OOP flop, IP turn, OOP turn etc.) These really won't be that useful since they aren't broken down into 3b/srp/multiway. I just use them to gauge general aggression and then go into the popup for specific stats.
Line 5: SB limp UO/SB Limp UO fold/ SB limp UO re-raise/ BB raise SB limp UO (honestly, these may be out of order but no one is going to have a great sample anyway)
Line 6: BB fold vs BTN/BB fold vs SB/BB fold vs CO/Btn 3b vs CO
I ran some quick numbers on the 3cJsAsKc hand at 20:45 top left table:
When this goes HU it's a clear fold. I think that still holds when it goes 3-way, except possibly in some corner cases. What's maybe more interesting is to change hero's cards around a bit and see which hands are a call. The A clearly hurts hero here, as does the 3. The K also hurts quite a bit because of the proximity effect. KQJ3$ds would still be a fold, whereas QJT3$ds would be a call (although that hand would probably not be squeezed pf). I've posted the PJ file if anyone wants to play around with it.
AKJ3$ds is a very easy fold in a HU situation vs a 4-bet, although you will get to see a lot of regs calling this all day long because well, they are double suited.
In a 3-way pot like this, it still is a fold because our 3-way equity is pretty bad (in the vicinity of 25%) and our average equity on the flops where we get this in is not high enough.
I actually did some math on this and just blew the post, but trust me, this is a clear fold. :)
Phil you mentioned about over betting the AKQ flop on the river with JT if it was No limit Omaha given ranges. Do you have much experience with NLO cash and is it something you would be interested in making a video in giving your opinion on key differences?
I've played a small amount of it and the one thing that I've struggled with is 3bing preflop since villains can just 4b jam AAxx for 100bb or more forcing me to fold my equity. For this reason I flat more IP with hands that play better Heads Up and hence goes multiway more often. Maybe I should just 3b/f these spots. Sorry if this seems a bit off topic. Thanks
good video. i think if you want to pick a spot in that video to support the topic of transitioning from texas it would be the AQ6ss on QJ6ss hand. its easy as an holdem player to overlook spots like that cuz one might think that our hand is stronger than it is or that we might look to strong/faceup when we lead. something i struggled with when i came over from holdem. so maybe you can look for more spots like that in case you pick up that series again.
i would like to see some hands disscued from live cashgames since they play much different from online games. i understand that the video format is a problem since its tough to remember dynamics, stacks, image etc but i think g-man in his previous videos found some nice ways to illustrate livehands. now with the wsop running and i remember seeing you in the bellagio games quite a bit in the last years i hope you might find some hands to share with us :) topics i find interessting are limping, isolation (tough cuz 3bets get coldcalled lighter by fish) and other live adjustments. cheers
I'm actually a limit player so give me some slack if this is a stupid question. Why would we prefer to overbet the nuts (JT on the AKQ b b) river vs a capped range of 2p or less? I would say his range is capped but doesn't seem to be very inelastic here. If it was possible, would we be overbetting when vbetting our AK and AQ combos as well?
In theory, you'll maximize EV by betting as large as possible when you have a polarized range of nuts and appropriately many bluffs. Larger bets means that you get to bluff more frequently. A simplified way of thinking about it is that you're effectively turning air into nuts, and it should make sense that maximizing the amount of air you turn into nuts also maximizes your EV.
This is a simplified explanation. The exact theory gets a bit more complex in corner cases. For example, you may arrive on the river with too few hands to bluff with, which will also put a limit on your EV. The opposite, when you have very few nut hands, isn't so much a problem in theory but is instead very hard to balance right in practice.
However, in actual game situations this may not be all that valuable, since many opponents would actually end up playing more correctly against the theoretically correct strategy, than against (for example) a smaller bet size.
I'll get to game theory concepts a bit later in my article series if you are interested in more details.
jonna thx for the sim, but I guess there is a small possibility that UTG somes along how do we take that into account in our EV calc?
thx in adv.
Well, in order to do a complete EV calculation for this spot you would need to calculate the whole game tree from the decision point preflop. In principle you do it the same way as heads up, but there are just many more calculations. You need to account for the cases when it goes 2-way and 3-way, and when it goes 3-way to the flop you need to account for when it's a 2-way all-in and when it's a 3-way all-in. And to be exact there's also a ~$120 side pot to account for between UTG and Hero, which may or may not come into play.
So the calculation quickly becomes quite involved, and it's also beyond what PokerJuice can help you with. I made a quick approximate manual calculation of the full situation, and while it improves Hero's situation slightly, it doesn't seem to be enough to make the preflop call worthwhile.
Expected value is just a probability weighted sum of all the possible outcomes. That is true both heads up and 3-way. The only difference is that there are many more possible outcomes 3-way.
yea makes sense, I guess that us having the A and K lowers our equity and that makes the whole difference, and it's a call with a hand like 9TJQds, because now we have mush more live straight/wrap twopair potential?
Yes, there are two effects in play here. One is that the ace is dead as a pair/two pair out. So it's only useful to the extent that it helps to make straights and flushes, but that's a significant drawback. The other effect is sometimes called the proximity effect. It has to do with his AA card blocking the straights that hero can make. The proximity is strongest with a K in hand, a bit less with a Q and so on. For that reason, a hand like 9876ds is better to have than QJT9ds for example.
Thx for taking time to explain jonna..
Almost seems like Apotheosis hits those boards a lot better than your average player. Lot of interesting spots! :)
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