Proview: Phil Galfond Reviews Linc in the Monday $530 PLO MTT

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Proview: Phil Galfond Reviews Linc in the Monday $530 PLO MTT

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Phil Galfond

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Proview: Phil Galfond Reviews Linc in the Monday $530 PLO MTT

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Phil Galfond

POSTED Nov 06, 2015

Phil takes a look at a PLO MTT hand history provided by RIO member Linc and offers his analysis.

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jonna102 9 years, 5 months ago

Hey, nice video Phil.

We see hero put hands in the wrong ranges occasionally. I wouldn't presume to know what that means for hero in this case, but it's something I see frequently from other players at the tables. What would you recommend if the situation is reversed, let's say we're up against someone we know puts hands in the wrong ranges occasionally, but we don't know exactly when?

  • What kind of (exploitative) adjustments do you think would make sense in that case (if any -- it kinda auto exploits itself)?

  • What kind of data/reads would you look for in order to make such adjustments?

  • What counter exploits do we open ourselves up to?

I think those questions are interesting to have considered in case we see something similar in future episodes of this series.

Linc 9 years, 5 months ago

At Airport Right now Long flight ahead of me, will watch this over the weekend looking forward to it. Just want to say thank you for the review already

Linc 9 years, 5 months ago

love the review! I like videos the most of people who I respect but who have a different viewpoint on certain things than me. So im actually very glad that this is getting reviewed by a plo cashgame player, especially you, been watching your videos since 2009. I just recently watched a Bill Burr interview where the comedian talks about him getting into acting and doing a movie with Kevin Costner. At one point during one scene, he had a moment where he was in the middle of his dialog and was screwing it up because he was realizing "oh shit, it's Kevin Costner!" and had that look on his face. Kind of like the feeling for me now.

So just to give some of my general outlook on things as a tournament player and some of my thought processes on some of the hands, maybe for future references:

Regarding my plo experience in general, my main game is NLH, PLO I have a little bit of a lowstakes heads up cashgame background but not like i grinded it for years, just took a few months off total maybe to play it since 2010 every now and then. Other than that ive just been playing plo mtts. Which of course is also why I send the hh for review as I think there are many areas for me to improve in.

Absolutely see your points about a couple of my weird riverbets. However will still explain my viewpoint on some of them.

At minute 24:00, Im actually valuebetting ATxx on the 837T3r board on river, which you said would be the worst intent. I might be too naive here. But I do think in mtts players make worse calls than the average cashgame player. I felt id get crying calls by worse Tx sometimes here, also felt im super rarely beat the way the hand was played. Basically most mtt plo players I expect to make cbets with all their overpairs on the flop, as well as all kinds of gutshots and straightdraws. So I thought I mostly would be only beat by 3xxx and T7xx type hands while i even expect most players to bet most their T7xx combos on this flop. I personally felt the likelihood of getting crying called by worse Tx for my small sizing was bigger than of getting called by better.

Now one other general component to this and to other spots in which I made bad looking riverbets, which is more of an overall gameplan/metagame element but which I think definitely has an effect in mtts: I feel like when im betting often in spots in which I think I have the best hand a huge majority of the time but will get just folds, is it will get more to the heads of the players, especially in a shorthanded game. They will get to see me win pots without showdown more often than others, which will, so is my theory, lead to them making wrong decisions in the future. They either think im overbluffing, or they get tilted and make wrong calldowns in bigger pots etc. It is a more abstract idea of ev which does not necessarily correlate with the immediate chip ev of my play. So lets say my immediate ev of betting small in a certain spot is slightly negative, if the bet itself does not hurt my stackutility much and it will lead to my opponents making bigger mistakes in future situations, it might not be as bad a play as it looks in the end. Not that I think he would approve of this specific idea of mine at all, but the core idea here could nicely tie into the video that has been done by James Obst recently, called "the art of mtts", where he talks about the specific and different skillsets required for mtts.

Minute 33:30, I am betting this big here because I want to rep a polarized range and simply because I would want to bet my big hands like this here too. I actually thought my sizing would make it more likely the opponent looks me up with Jx or 9x. I also use the various bigger postflop sizings you talked about simply because in those spots im thinking how id bet my stronger hands, so ill always bet my weaker hands or bluffs like this too. In tournaments, more so than in cashgames, I think players give alot away with their sizings which can often be attacked. So i try to protect myself against this vs other observant regs, although I actually dont think it is too necessary tbh. But just to explain why I make some of the bigger bets in general. The preflop sizing btw was just lazyness. Its the sizing I use for my nlh mtts I have a button for this, and i think (and this may be wrong) for plo the preflop sizing, like weather you make it 2.5x or 3x or 2x, is not as important as in NLH.

around Minute 42:20: after limping A78Tcc i decide to bet/call a big raise and a call on 6AJ7hhss, which I totally agree is bad and this is what I thought right after, however just to explain where my brain was wandering off to: everyone checked the flop, now I thought smallblind or bigblind would both lead if they had a set, which is where im already going wrong thinking about this in hindsight. They can easily check sets here with intention to checkraise. So basically I fantasized everyone had draws lol, worst played hand/biggest mistake out of all the reviewed hands. Even if they all have draws, half the deck is a bad river for me.

I think thats enough imput to understand my point of view in future a little better, but dont even think its too necessary anyways. Thanks again for the review, very much appreciated.

Phil Galfond 9 years, 5 months ago

Hey Linc,

Thanks for the HHs and the comments!

So lets say my immediate ev of betting small in a certain spot is slightly negative, if the bet itself does not hurt my stackutility much and it will lead to my opponents making bigger mistakes in future situations...

You remind me of myself :)

Being strong with creativity and logic is usually a great thing, but it has its downsides. If it were my goal, I could have made this video and defended every single play you made, and the majority of people probably wouldn't have questioned me. This is a dangerous skill, because if you ever have a hard time admitting you're wrong or don't have great self-awareness, you can use it on yourself and explain away everything.

I can't argue with any of the logic in your above post, but that doesn't mean you're right!

Starting with the above quote, in reference to value bets that take the pot w/o showdown. I think that in MTTs especially, you won't get enough time to capitalize on much (if any) of the psychological benefits you mention.

I could also argue that causing your opponents to assume you're bluffing more is a bad thing in MTTs, (especially in PLO where equities run so close) since you generally don't want much action from them due to tourney considerations, especially as ICM becomes a big factor.

If people started taking stands against you more often, especially on early streets, you could be seriously damaging your $EV.

Now, I said I could argue that because I actually don't believe it :). My true opinion (or is it!?) is that the psychological effect of people assuming you bluff rivers causes most to tighten up against you on early streets, which is great for you.

At minute 24:00, Im actually valuebetting ATxx on the 837T3r board on river

(not quoting all your assumptions because it will take up too much space)

If your assumptions are right, it's a fine play. I just don't think people are betting all of their overpairs, and I think T7/T8 very often get played this way. That said, the largest factor is that I just don't expect a lot of weak Tx hands to call you, which means even if they rarely have better, they probably don't call with enough worse hands to make up for the few times they have you beat.

Minute 33:30, I am betting this big here because I want to rep a polarized range and simply because I would want to bet my big hands like this here too. I actually thought my sizing would make it more likely the opponent looks me up with Jx or 9x.

While in theory, they should call a larger bet less often, I get what you mean and I don't think it's too unreasonable. To be fair, you've probably played more tournament PLO than I have, so it's possible your assumptions here are more accurate than mine.

I still think we have more EV with a smaller bet, but I don't hate the play.

Overall

In general, the reason I'd prefer smaller bets all around from you is due to MTT implications. I explained it in the video I believe, but if we opt to use a strategy with larger sizings, we increase our variance.

On early streets, we put give our opponent more incentive to shove once we increase the pot-size to a certain amount. We also build larger pots in a game where equity runs very close, which of course increases variance even if they are just calling.

On the river, betting larger means we need to add in more bluffs, and that combined with a larger sizing in general just means bigger swings.

In the early stages of a tournament, this isn't a big deal at all in theory. In practice, most of the PLO MTTs I play are big ones (and live ones), and I believe my edge on the field is quite high, so I'm especially protective of my tournament life throughout.

Towards the end, anyone would prefer to keep variance lower, and in this game it's a very big struggle to achieve that without blinding out. I take any chance I get to make my strategy a lower variance one, and smaller sizing is part of that.

Looking forward to doing more parts of the series!

chasepoker 9 years, 4 months ago

Great video please more non hold em mtt videos. I enjoy the depth you go into as there are plenty of 100bb Omaha videos but few 20-40bb spots discussed.

With regard to bet sizing in Omaha mtts could it not be argued that he larger sizings are good as they will discourage people ( like yourself) from playing pots with us in some shallow stack spots where equities run close ( which is obviously a benefit). I do play quite a few Omaha mtts and find this strategy is best employed late in mtts though not on final tables, probably due to ICM effects being stronger and the playing chicken to not be worth it. I know this is a how long is a piece of string type debate but one I think about and am interested to hear your thoughts.

Cheers

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