Yeah the Q9s is pretty close. I tend to play more 3b/fold against 3x than I do against 2.5x.

You're probably right. I think AK is probably the threshold.

Killian,

long, thought out questions are encouraged!

2/3 pot is probably the smallest sizing I would use on this river and that would include hands like AQ. I don't think there's much merit in trying to implement a smaller sizing. I don't really see many weaker Ax playing this way as they'd often check turn (meaning we probably don't have the A5 2 pair OTR). Like I said in the video, I think the threshold for the turn bet is somewhere around AK.

Whether or not using a larger river sizing is superior is difficult to say definitively. It depends on what the OOP's turn strategy looks like. The more flushes he's x/c, the less incentive we have to bet large OTR. My default assumption is that he would x/r most of his flushes OTR but mix some strong flushes into his x/c range. Under these conditions, he would not be able to fold all non-flush hands OTR to the bet sizing our hero chose. Alternatively, if we give ourselves only the options of check or all-in, I think 22 falls below the vbet threshold. Further, OOP can likely comfortably fold most combos worse than a set.

The "best" strategy probably implements multiple sizings OTR. From my rough sims, the EV of playing the river as 65% bet/check is greater than the EV of all-in/check. The EV of all-in/65%/check was almost the same as 65%/check.

If you have reads on your opponent though I think there's a lot of different strats you could choose OTR. In particular if you have accurate reads/stats of his turn tenancies.

Yeah, I definitely agree that 22 would not make it in an over bet/all in. So, as you said, having multiple bet sizing's is probably optimal but as game play goes I don't see anything wrong with using just the one 2/3's sizing. And without being able to run the simulation, I think using one sizing of 75-80% is going to be less EV. Makes our 2 pair and sets a little thinner of a value bet and we lose more when opponent has a flush.

PL,

the (presumably linear) SB 3b range does so well on 552 that cb every hand is a fine approximation. I think it'd be a mistake to only cb made hands and hands with some sort of semi bluff value as we wouldn't be taking advantage of our range's equity effectively.

One way to think of this flop is just 3 blank cards. IP wiffs with almost his entire range. Now consider how much stronger the SB 3b range is than the IP flatting range pre-flop. These cards did just about nothing to change that.