Proview: James Obst reviews CrazyB15 in the $162 6-max (part 4)
Posted by James Obst
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Good smooth flow with great logical breakdowns James. Have a question tho, at 34:45 you quickly say 22 is a fold despite having our aggro friend opening utg and getting 22:1 implieds in position.
Then at 38:07 you say you would at least just call with the 66 facing the aggro player again this time 3 betting from sb and getting 15:1 implieds.
I thought you were quite quick to dismiss a call with 22 and wanted to know your thoughts on why? Was it simply that with the 66, HU, we close out the action and face a strong likelihood of him following up his 3 bet pre with post flop aggression and a good chance to dbl? As opposed to the 22 where we still have players behind that could squeeze and aggro guy might see less need to go after a single raised smaller pot oop?
The 66 call pre is somewhat speculative you're right - we are going to be able to continue without setting up much more often though and closing the action is definitely critical. I think we can show a profit on a call but I wouldn't criticise anyone for folding to the 3bet, it'll be hard to play and high variance. From memory this opponent was going nuts against us and having his way up to now though, so while there would be more ideal conditions to take him on, if he is doing this with a wide range either due to tilt or to exploit us not playing back at him to now, we have enough to take a flop. We'll have to win some pots without setting up to show a profit though, and I do think if we're up against a very strong player with some weaker spots left just moving on to the next hand would be more prudent. This flop unfortunately makes it hard for us to rep much, and I think flatting just to hope he has worse and doesn't barrel again would be a bleed with only two outs to improve. Also, if for some reason we're putting him on a tight range against which we won't feel good about continuing unimproved on any board textures, or if we're up against a tight opponent in this spot say, I suspect the odds aren't good enough to call.
You're spot on about the 3bettor being likely to be more determined to win the bigger pot where he's demonstrated a range edge by 3betting, ergo better implied odds - so if we were to flat 22 he may slow down post-flop, but it's the worst hand to try to bluff post-flop with, and if we're including 22 in our pre-flop calling range and post-flop floating range we will balloon our frequencies to where we will be crazy exploitable.
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