Practical Deviations from Equilibrium (Part 1)
Posted by Francesco Lacriola
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So re the Q9 hand.
I call there all the time too but I don't think I have been shown a bluff once, except by certain people who I know are capable to begin with.
I play in a small fenced in pool similar to yours (probably) and I it feels like certain regs just do not have it in them to ever put in a bluff there - even if they know you are never calling.
I know you talk about how the dynamics may change but that seems a bit paranoid. The more I play the same people day in and day the more I'm convinced that mice shall never become lions.
You don't make a mistake by calling Q9s even if your opponent is never bluffing here. You have to think in terms of range EV and not of single combination, and even if our opponent is never bluffing we exploit them by overfolding (never calling 0 EV hands).
Sometimes in poker we have annoying situations in which we are expected to lose money and by just calling a very small % of strong bluffcatchers, if we manage to make our opponent never bluff we gain a lot in terms of EV when we have thinvaluebets/raises. Also we can comfortably bet/raise-fold hands which aren't good bluffcatchers.
In my case my opponent made a huge mistake by not going all in (so won less than what he was expected to win here). If you have some thin value-raise you can always fold such hands and only call Q9s+ (you also don't have Q9off in your range here, therefore bet calling the second nuts straight is even less relevant, as it's a much smaller portion of your range).
But if villain is never bluffing it is very likely he is also incapable of making the adjustment of changing that if we never call. I just don't understand what the point of calling is in some extreme examples.
Say you are up vs some heartless reg playing 18 14 6max stats with a wwsf of 38 why call?
Unfortunately I have no 18/14 players in my games. In that case, and only in that case, I would consider a fold.
First hand 86s.
Could you perhaps make a video or post some hands where you have bluffs in similar spots and how they work?
Cheers
I'm planning to shoot a theoretical video about flop and turn leads and how to play against them from the IP player's perspective.
In general, when we decide to bluff this river we want to block the 8x and some straights in our opponent's range. Our opponent will basically have only suited 8xs, so KT combinations which block K8s and T8s combinations are the best bluffing candidates. Also T9 combinations which block 98s and T8s are viable candidates, as 9x is going to have little to no showdown value on this river. Keep in mind that you don't have to lead with all your gutshots/OESDs/flush draws on the turn.
I'm not sure I agree that he shouldn't jam/raise river with QT. Vs 1/3 flop size you will have most of J8,A8 but again thats only 12 combinations at best, and 89 - +6 combo. That give you 18// and as for valuebets any 8x(roughly same) you peel preflop and QT too. Rough estimations tells me that you can fold ~70% of your range and that nails down with only calling better(FH+), however if you deviate wider that become it might be higher EV than raise/call.
However I agree that shoving QT is slightly overplay because of too big size, but can't be terrible.
What you think?
Great video and you explain the concepts really well.
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