Super Tuesday (part 1)
Posted by Grayson Ramage
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first time hearing of you (sadly). Great video and great analysis.
Thanks Jrive!
Hello,
Nice vid Grayson I agree with your fold on the river with the KQ.
Keep up the good work!
Matt
Thank you Matt!
Hi, for the hand at min 8, with AJcc, are we assuming that a fish will bluff there too often on the river? Obviously the case here, but in general I would be expecting them to checking back a lot. Especially if they have a set or some 9x. I don't see too many bluffing combos relative to the hands that might snap call a lead.
I do think he should have more Jx combos than me in this spot, and leading when I have a J and checking when I do not is obviously very exploitable. The fact that it is exploitable probably doesn't matter much since it is unlikely I will find myself in a similar situation against this opponent ever again.
It really depends on what I think he is doing with his hands that play the board, and whether or not he has come to the conclusion that he will have more Jx in his range than I will in mine so he should probably be shoving quite a bit to get me to fold a chop. I decided that he would probably be bluffing enough that I should check rather than lead. If I expect him to check back and hope to chop, then a lead with Jx definitely preferable to checking.
Hey, Gray happy to see a new video of you here :) Enjoyed seeing you on the video made me focus more to learn more.
Will you finish the 500 review like that?
Also a suggestion to the next live session please make 6 tables like old vids, maybe a Wcoop live session review? :).
You have been crushing since ever haha How much do you think the game changed since let's say 2012?
Thanks
Thanks David, glad you enjoyed the video. The final part of the 500 review will be either my next video released, or be released after the end of this Super Tuesday series.
I'll definitely try to record a live session during WCOOP!
I think the game has changed a lot since 2012, some of the main differences are that there used to be way more preflop Xbetting wars, less BB defending, and less knowledge and application of GTO strategy in tournaments.
Hi Grayson, great video! At 25:49 UTG goes all in for about 5BBS...it folds to you and you re-shove all in with A8 on the button for 10BBS. He has A4 and you win. You say this is an easy play. Could you go into why this is such an easy play.
As a newb i would fold because I would think he could have a better ace or any pair and we are just flipping. Also the blinds could wake up with something and have you dominated. Even though you have 10BBS I would of waited for a better spot. Sorry for the newb question.
Thanks niceface, no need to apologize for the question, it's a very valid one. This is a spot that is best figured out using holdemresources nach icm calculator. I've plugged in all the stacks, using a winner-take-all payout structure since we are not that close to the money so we should be focused simply on taking +chipEV spots. Results
This shows that he should be shoving about 1/3 of all hands, and we can re-shove 19.5% of hands. Assuming he is shoving correctly, A7o is the worst off-suit ace that we can profitable re-shove so this spot is actually a littler close than I thought with A8o.
It might be a fold if UTGi isn't pushing as wide as the software says he should. It might be a clear fold against an unknown at lower stakes that nice likely plays.
Thanks Grayson that cleared up the hand, I appreciate it!
What are your thoughts on the below question I posted to the forum, I must be looking at it wrong and wanted to get your feedback on it...thanks!
Does Positive EV/Equity plays really matter in Tourneys in the Long Run?
I understand you always want the odds in your favor. I get how in cash games in the long run if you get your money in good you might lose in the short term but all those edges add up over time and in long run you will profit just like a casino does with their edge.
But in tourneys you need to avoid getting knocked out. So you could go all in 10 times as a 80-20 favorite, you win the first 8 but lose the last 2 to bigger stacks and your out. You did great getting your money in good and put your self in a good spot but I don't see how that 80% edge you had carries over to other tourneys. Since its not like a cash game. In many videos the pros say your making the correct long term play but once your out of the tourney I don't think any of the profitable moves you made matter for the long term. Since a tournament is a different beast than a cash game.
I get why positive EV plays are important to give you an edge in the short term but I don't see how they factor into long term - future tournament play.
Thanks!
I noticed you got some other responses to this question, I agree with what Jeremy said and noticed you asked some follow-up questions too. In short, you basically are waiting for that tournament where you god-mode and almost every all-in goes your way. Due to the nature of tournaments and the fact that a huge portion of the prizepool is paid out to the top few spots, by making +EV plays you are essentially giving yourself a better shot at making it to the top.
That open utg with QJ suited at 22:14 would you fold it if it was not suited ? Personally I would not open if it was off suited in that spot with these stacks.
Thank you.
I agree. I think it would be too loose to open QJo there.
At minute 33, I would cbet 77 on A98 ep vs. BB. I might not cbet QQ/KK, but 77 is weak enough to bet on an ace high flop.
The last hand with KQ, IMO flat is the only play, as you are absolutely pot committed to the original raiser when you squeeze. I would just shove the flop for a psb with TPGK on a drawy board. I know that is not the style these days, but is there some merit to forcing draws and weaker made hands to get allin or fold. We are only behind AA, AK, KK, JJ, KJ and 66 OTF.
I agree that 77 should be a cbet there. I have a big range advantage against the BB on that flop so I can do a lot of cbetting.
I agree that squeezing commits me there, but I don't like shoving flop. I think his range is going to be very strong when he cbets into two people and although there is only a PSB behind I think it is close as to whether or not I have enough equity against his range to go with my hand on the flop.
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