There's always at least one thought provoking hand or comment. Why do you think villain's shove w AQ vs your KQ is sooooooooo bad?
It folds out some small pp, a lot of 40% equity hands (can't be a bad thing given ICM on the FT bubble) that can call and lead or checkraise whether they are ahead or not, and can get called by quite a few dominated hands that expect it never to be that strong given the "standard way" to play it. That wasn't a needle - even though it looks like it. :)
Edit: Thought about this a bit more walking back from Starbucks - had a look at OPR and villain has a positive ROI, decent buyin and appears to play a lot of satellites and 180's, probably playing quite a few tables. I wouldn't be surprised to see AQ there. His play might not be maximising his EV (does that depend on what the other parts of his range look like?), but surely it's plus EV, good for multi-table hourly and on a different level protects his future shoves. I'd have been interested in seeing your thoughts on what that shoving range might have been after seeing him show up with AQ. Unbalanced? Polarised? Something else?
Haha, starbucks ideal poker thinking time! It's not in doubt that's its +ev but I think at this stage of the tournament in a situation like his he is losing enormous amounts of value Vs so many hands he has crushed. I could see an argument for jamming if he thinks he has such superior skill and minimizing variance is more important than profit maximization, but with less than 26x in this tourney I don't think it's the time for that. Protecting future shoves is an interesting point, but just because he jams AQ here doesn't mean he isn't jamming all those hands we do well against, so I'd still call if this happened exactly the same again =).
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Enjoyed it as always, Paul.
There's always at least one thought provoking hand or comment. Why do you think villain's shove w AQ vs your KQ is sooooooooo bad?
It folds out some small pp, a lot of 40% equity hands (can't be a bad thing given ICM on the FT bubble) that can call and lead or checkraise whether they are ahead or not, and can get called by quite a few dominated hands that expect it never to be that strong given the "standard way" to play it. That wasn't a needle - even though it looks like it. :)
Edit: Thought about this a bit more walking back from Starbucks - had a look at OPR and villain has a positive ROI, decent buyin and appears to play a lot of satellites and 180's, probably playing quite a few tables. I wouldn't be surprised to see AQ there. His play might not be maximising his EV (does that depend on what the other parts of his range look like?), but surely it's plus EV, good for multi-table hourly and on a different level protects his future shoves. I'd have been interested in seeing your thoughts on what that shoving range might have been after seeing him show up with AQ. Unbalanced? Polarised? Something else?
Haha, starbucks ideal poker thinking time! It's not in doubt that's its +ev but I think at this stage of the tournament in a situation like his he is losing enormous amounts of value Vs so many hands he has crushed. I could see an argument for jamming if he thinks he has such superior skill and minimizing variance is more important than profit maximization, but with less than 26x in this tourney I don't think it's the time for that. Protecting future shoves is an interesting point, but just because he jams AQ here doesn't mean he isn't jamming all those hands we do well against, so I'd still call if this happened exactly the same again =).
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