I realy like this vídeo format. Hope to see more live plo hands analysis in the future!

Zach,

Really love the way you have formatted this video and used various tools to calculate the answers you're striving for. I hope to see much more content following this style, so thanks for that. With that said, when you make a few of these calculations, do you think you are overestimating how often you will get folds (specifically vs the pf squeezer for ex? Like on J73cch, is rly going to fold like AA9Thhxx or AAKThh etc? even AA98ddss? I realize im only referencing a handful of combos, which would be no means make the play dramatically less EV (i dont think) and perhaps thats why you didnt bother to include what im talking about in ur calcs. Just curious to hear your thoughts on this point and if its worth elaborating on. You have very few JJ and 77 combos expect for like QQJJ (dbl pairs etc) so it would seem to me that if he folds like AA with any kind of immediate (non flush draw) back up or back door back up, given pot odds he should be calling. Sorry if im rambling, hopefully that makes sense. Cheers

The PF 3bettor's flop calling range used in the simulation was
PLAYER_4 MATCH HAND RANGE ((37,j3,j7,33,77,jj),CC,(654,T98),(98,T8,T9,654))))
This means if folded to him, he is calling with any 2PR+, any FD, any wrap, and any nut gutter. In reality he might call with non nut gutter like AA56.
So 2 of your examples that you thought I had him folding, I have him calling with (AAT9, and AA89) . I have him folding the other example (AAKT). I think it's reasonable for him to fold his mostly naked AA because my range to commit into 3 un acted ranges has to be strong.

If my PF range is ($FI20)!($4b2) and my flop leading range is (37+,456+:(cc,3+),acc,cc:(3+,89+,456+) then I will flop 2pair or better 32% freq which is not insignificant.

He needs 37% equity to stack off and his naked AA hands will have that or just barely more. If he calls off with naked AA its basically neutral EV so it won't affect the results.

Results Spreadsheet

Really enjoyed this video. It’s a nice change of pace from standard videos and one I’ll have to rewatch to really improve my game. The ranges look pretty spot on, but I’m still really surprised how infrequently P4 is calling (~26%) in all scenarios.

P3 folding KKxx with clubs seems like a big mistake.

My one question: Was there an option to run it twice in this game? If so, how much (if at all) will that increase each players calling range, specifically P4 when folded to him?

Thanks and I'm glad you liked it. Player 4 only calling 26% is misleading. It's because he is last to act behind the loose player 2. Every time player 2 and player 3 have to act before him so if either of them vpip he has to switch to an over-calling range which will reduce his vpip frequency by a lot.

You can run it twice but it won't affect people's calling range. Most of these guys own a pair of gambling shoes.

Thanks Zach nice analysis :)

Great video as always! My one question is regarding the EV of shoving flop when not holding a flush draw. Would the EV you calculated be true only the first time you shoved that hand? If your opponents regularly see you shoving that type of flop with a pair, gutshot, and no flush draw, they would likely widen their calling range. If you were to rerun the simulation with wider calling ranges, your EV for the play would likely be smaller, right?

Great video!

Great video Zach. So if I'm understanding correctly 5 ways you need 20% equity pre to break even and you have 21%(slightly less than 20% needed due to dead money). Are you concerned about getting backraised some % of the time or is nobody in the game backraising w/out AA?

In games I play in and I'm sure some you play in some people are looking to stick it in pre w w good looking cards that do poorly against AA. In this case you would be forced to fold 100% of your preflop equity?

2nd question I have is what is the point in even raising this hand? If everyone's calling range is inelastic (i.e. Anyone who vpips will call your raise anyways) all you're doing is building a pot oop at an equity disadvantage. Is this just to balance an AA raising range?

Any additional videos on live multiway pots (specifically on ep ranges and ep ranges vs button straddle) would be very helpful.