Playing on the Bubble
Posted by Sam Greenwood
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Would you mind sharing this excel sheet.
Sorry for taking so long to respond. Here is the spreadsheet. You can't edit it in the link below, but you can copy and paste it into another google sheet and it should work.
Bubble spreadsheet
I might be mistaken, but subtracting only the 16 mincashes in the ITM PP doesn't seem correct to me. I think we need to substract the mincash for all cashes in the same way we had to do that for the 16 mincashes to avoid counting them double. It seems like you account for the mincash for players 1-39 double since you give them their mincash-dollars twice, first as part of the ITM PP (G) in column B and second as mincash ev in column C.
Again might very well be a fallacy on my side, would appreciate it if someone can point out what fallacy I make then
You are right. This is a pretty big mistake on my part and makes a lot of the specific analysis in this video incorrect. When I'm back from PCA I'll post the spreadsheet in a google doc so that people can ruin their own calcuations. I'll also spend some time in my next video going over the mistakes I made.
Sam, I am posting a hand history from a live tournament close to the bubble spot that I am not sure about.
Live tournament, 21 players left and 18 cash. Min cash is about 3x the buy in.
I am in SB with TT and about 19BB stack. HJ opens for 2.5BB, Button 3b to 7BB.
Some more info:
1. Not much info on HJ player but he had about 30BB stack and I only saw him play one hand for past 20 min (time I was at that table).
2. Button is top 1-2 chip leaders and has been active. 3b at least once before, called shove with 33 vs 12BB stack. During my time at the table, he talked a lot about how he was winning all flips and sucked out on people for past 5 hours.
3. There is at least 1 player with about 10BB on my table and few more players on other tables. So, if I fold I will be cruising towards top 18 and $$.
4. I decided to cold 4b shove as I was thinking that Button's range could be wide given he just won a decent pot and is close to being chip leaders.
5. Result is not important but after my 4b shove, Button called with AKo and I was out in 21st place.
Sam, what are your thoughts on this spot? For chip EV, I think it is a shove, but given that we were 3 away from $$, I think a fold is more reasonable. My 19 BB stack simply has too much value and losing it is much worse as far as ICM vs doubling up.
With the information given, my intuition is to fold. It is good for CEV, but a 3x min cash is huge, you have no FE and you bust the tourney ~40% of the time you shove.
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