4 Tables of High Stakes PLO (part 3)
Posted by Phil Galfond
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Love this series!!! Try to make a live PLO video next if at all possible. :D
who gives out ipads at the main event?? TY PHIL! (forgive the fact that this is in the wrong place)
great video!
the spot in min 11 table 2 is very interesting, so I'd like to ask if I got that right / my conclusions are correct:
if our gameplan on such a flop consists in c/c with medium-weak hands (weak trips , pocketpairs and AK-hi type hands ... and probably quads) and we c/r with our good trips and some bluffs with backdoor EQ
...turn blank gets check , check
on an Ace-River like in the video would you advocate to
- valuebet AK/AQ and trips
-bluff with underpairs to the J (or like in that case to the T)
-c/c with TP no kicker (like A885)
-maybe also c/c with QQ/KK / Txxx ?
-c/r with straights and better ?
all under the assumption that villain calls any ace, bets most of the time w/an ace and bluffs with most hands weaker Txxx
Good question and breakdown, John!
I think that is pretty much what I'd advocate. It's slightly ambitious to x/r a straight here, just because he rarely has a worse hand that can call, and occasionally has a boat. Without an ace blocker, I might just bet my straights. With an Ace, I'd x/r.
min 25 tables 3: my first instict tells me that +EV wise it can't be too profitable to raise /get it in with a hand that weak and an SPR of >7 .
since he probably knows that you will raise frequently in these spots we can assume that he bet/3bet with all his 2pair, TP/OP+gutshot or better and pair+OESD or better
and bet/call his TP / OP with backdoors like AKKTds or QJT8
so the only hands he will fold are airballs and maybe the weak bare overpair
I'm not experienced enough with propokertools but I think we don't have enough foldequity and we are in terrrible shape the times we get it in - the times he bet/calls we are also likely to either face a Turnbet or get c/r on any card higher then a 8 , so we are not having a good bluffspot neither
I think the play is much better with an SPR of 5 or lower bec of lower reverse implieds or with 9 or higher since now we can safely raise/fold
I'll take a first crack at this, with the caveat that what I came up with needs improvement.
I'm adding a few assumptions that may or may not be realistic, but let's look at the calculation and challenge the assumptions later:
* His 3b range is PPT 12% straight up
* He c-bets 100% of his range on this board
* When we raise we raise full pot and always get it in if he wants to
* When he has top pair/overpair there's always a backdoor straight or flush
* After we raise and he calls, the turn and river are always checked down
* Rake is negligible
So... a quick check in PPT tells us he has top pair or better 70% of the time. Using your ranges for b/3b and b/c our equity is 39% vs his b/3b range and 45.7% vs his b/c range. Maybe someone will want to dig into those numbers more deeply, I'll leave the exact ranges out for now to keep this post a bit shorter. With these assumptions he'd be folding 30% of the time, but that's very possibly overly optimistic.
I put the numbers into the EV worksheet below. From there it looks like raising would be +EV by a decent margin, but there's a good chance that this calculation overestimates the EV because of the assumptions.
I'm well aware that this is just a first stab, but it's all I have for now. Can anyone improve on it?
Good question again, John.
First, to address Jonna's analysis (very well done, btw). The only major problem I see is that our EV for calling is still quite high, so just because raising is +EV, it doesn't mean it's the play.
There are two main reasons I raise here-
1) To play tough, and protect my range for the times I raise this flop with air.
2) To induce a 3b bluff.
These two work against each other in a sense. I'm hoping to induce a 3b bluff here OR deter him from 3b bluffing when I have the weaker parts of my range.
It's going to be very hard to find the solution here in an EV calc, because his 3b bluff frequency is entirely unknown. If his 3b bluff frequency becomes 0%, then the value lies not in the vacuum play here, but in the times I bluff in this spot.
Hi Phil,
how would you play this hand if you were close to 200bb deep?
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