ProView: Phil Galfond Reviews Leo Nordin, $5/$10 HU PLO Deep w/ Antes (part 4 of 5)
Posted by Phil Galfond
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I was following series from starts and really enjoyed the game and both Leo and opponent;s play and your analysis
From what i noticed so far, opponent though playing 100 percent hands preflop is very difficult to play with postflop
As you said he is checking a lot so he can call light almost any value or weak holding he does have, not missing to get value out of anything either by leo betting for him or by himself getting to river cheap and valuing or showing down cheap, and to top the bad Leo cant get aggro anyhow because of opponents frequent checkraises, so so far he is extracting value of anything he has and isnt missing any equity he has to get to rvr and is charging Leos aggression with light call downs and checkraises
You had few suggestions , to c bet more with stronger hands , to bluff more, which is awefully difficult because this opponent seems to realise his equity perfectly, and little adjustments are just expected adjustements that opponent is handling rather well
Oppponent checkraises killed action and aggression, Leo isnt c betting as much as i guess is his usual nor as big, making game go his way, and so far i cant see any leaks in his game that you can break through to get things go your way.
I just wanted to remind in first video you suggested that maybe playing bigger pots with this opponent might be good idea, but since you havent mention it, and through out videos is visible opponent is very careful with big pots, so what i wanted to suggest is maybe go back to your primary observation, and make this opponent play prebetted 5 betted huge pots, where he wouldnt be able to realise his equities as good, and wouldnt be able to kill action with checkraises because almost on flop pot would be huge and checkraises would be stacking off
PS ~ ANother adjustements to this play might be to do exact same thing as he does, but i think that game would be game of ultimate boredome with opponent who is perfectly estimating his equity and ev
PS2 ~ my vocabulary isnt as professional as yours, i hope i made my point somehow in common words :S
PS3~ what i wanted to suggest is actually 5 betted pots with any decent hand Leo has and 3 barreling with any connection to flop, not allowing our opponent to float and getting some value, and taking off opponent of safe grounds of small pots
Easily some of you best work even counting your videos from bluefire.
Thanks!
I began using a custom 3bet range of 19% of hands (not top 19%), and also tested an 11% and 25% 3bet ranges to see how results differed, including our hand as dead cards.
On the flop I assigned the preflop 3bet range of 19% to villain (assuming he doesn’t have leading range for this board which may be incorrect but simplifies this example), excluding AA (also running sims for exclusion of KK as well)
On the turn after villain checks in creating his range we would need to know whether he has turn leading range or not (how this could affect his turn c/c range) so I created a couple different ranges for illustrative purposes:
Entire continuing range check calls.
From what we have seen from this opponent being comfortable c/c marginals this would probably be;
2PR> translating to 2pair or greater,which occurs 71.37% of the 19% 3bet range minus AA.
Within this turn continue range OTR:
***19% 3bet range; FH = 45.56%, excluding KK pre; FH=36.75%
The following river ranges are obtained from the turn results of each of the respective preflop ranges, however for simplicity’s sake I’ve omitted them and just put river results:
***11% 3bet range; FH = 55.37%, excluding KK pre; FH= 45%
***25% 3bet range; FH = 46.52%, excluding KK pre; FH=38.04%
We require just under 32% equity to make a +EV call so under the above assumptions each circumstance would be a call.
If however, villain chose to check some showdown value OTR (which could be possible as the river will most likely be checked back by Leo) and bet his full houses and non-straight hands his range would look something like this:
FH, (KJ, K9, J9)-ST, T8-2NS> translating to full house, blockers not containing a straight, and bare Q high straight. This is 64.92% of hands that get to the river from the 19 3bet range that calls turn.
OTR:
***19% 3bet range; FH = 70.02%, excluding KK pre; FH = 61.96%
***11% 3bet range; FH = 79.01%, excluding KK pre; FH = 71.34%
***25% 3bet range; FH = 71.08%, excluding KK pre; FH = 63.44%
Each case would be a close fold here, and to demonstrate the effect of preflop ranges in the decision, if villain were folding KK preflop for example, it could be a call.
C/C Range with turn lead range
If we assumed villain leads 100% of straights on the turn then the c/c turn range would be as follows :
2PR>-ST which occurs 36.36% (2 pair or greater excluding straights)
On the river villain if villain leads 100% of range due to absence of straights that could check down;
OTR:
***19% 3bet range; FH = 70.52%, excluding KK pre; FH = 61.31%
*** for an 11% 3bet range FH = 78.74%, excluding KK pre; FH = 69.31%
***and 25% 3bet range FH=69.28%, excluding KK pre; FH = 59.9
If we assumed villain lead nutstraight and c/c rest of continuing range then:
2PR>-NS> occurs 63.4% OTT.
OTR
***19% 3bet range; FH = 50.24%, excluding KK pre; FH = 41.07%
*** for an 11% 3bet range FH = 61.16%, excluding KK pre; FH = 50.68%
***25% 3bet range FH=51.45%, excluding KK pre; FH = 42.67 %
if we also examine the range that checks straight and leads everything else then FH, (KJ, K9, J9)-ST, T8-2NS> occurs 72.42% OTT.
OTR
***19% 3bet range; FH = 69.34%, excluding KK pre; FH = 60.98%
*** for an 11% 3bet range FH = 78.28%, excluding KK pre; FH = 70.16%
***and 25% 3bet range FH=70.67%, excluding KK pre; FH = 62.85%
In summary, depending on villains turn lead tendencies, as well as river donk tendencies (and preflop ranges somewhat as they become tight) the decision could be swayed either way which is why this spot is so close. In reality his actual play is probably lies somewhere in between a couple of the above examples. One thing to note, which we didn’t have the benefit of knowing at this point in the video (since this was a read from the next vid in the series), is villain has river lead range which is unpolarised (potentially on cards he doesn’t expect us to fire enough) so if villain can ever c/c a straight OTT and lead river with it some % this is probably a call based on the above numbers. However this read may not necessarily generalise to this spot in particular.
Hope there was something interesting in all of that and thanks again for this series Phil/Leo!
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