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ProView: Phil Galfond reviews Kitsune at $1/$2 PLO Zoom (part 1)

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ProView: Phil Galfond reviews Kitsune at $1/$2 PLO Zoom (part 1)

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Phil Galfond

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ProView: Phil Galfond reviews Kitsune at $1/$2 PLO Zoom (part 1)

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Phil Galfond

POSTED Jan 28, 2017

Phil aims to find spots where hero can make exploitative decisions against the $200 PLO Zoom player pool.

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sheep_shears 8 years, 3 months ago

Phil, you and your videos are awesome. The way you articulate your thoughts and reasons make your videos pure gold. Thank you for all that you do here.

My background is in NLHE 6 max. I've played quite a bit of PLO tournaments but have recently started playing a lot of PLO 6 max cash. In your videos you are able to put players on much more specific hand ranges than I am able to in the heat of the moment. For example, while playing a hand I might think to myself "there's a flush draw and 2 straight draws, he bet so he probably has either a good draw or strong made hand". Other than putting in more study and practice, is there anything you would suggest doing to improve my hand range and hand reading skills during game play? I apologize if this is too general of a question, but it always amazes me at how honed in you are in with your reads.

Thanks again!

Phil Galfond 8 years, 2 months ago

Thank you, sheep_shears! I'm really glad you're getting something out of the videos.

Sorry for the delay in response - it's been a very hectic month.

2Big2Fail answered for me. Those tools will be best, but practice helps as well.

If you are an Elite member, I'd suggest Tom Chambers' videos on combinatorics. He dives very deep into the frequency at which opponents have certain hands. The extra short version is: Parts of your opponents range that require 3 or all 4 cards (like wraps) and parts that require a lot of specific cards (AT or AJ plus two hearts) occur more rarely than when your opponent only needs two cards (AKxx).

Runlikegod 8 years, 3 months ago

Hi Phil,
great Vid as usual!

I have heard you advocate leads from BB on unpaired lowcard boards several times now (6-max). I do get the gist of it, however my problem is what it does to our checking range. There will hardly be a spot, where we want to lead range from the BB, considering how wide we defend. Thus our checking range becomes very weak, so that we can almost never defend vs heat from the PFA. Any thoughts on that?
Also do you then do not have a x/r-range OTF in these spots?

Phil Galfond 8 years, 2 months ago

This is a really tough problem and not one that I've solved. I believe the best way to think of it is as follows:

On these low card boards, you have a range advantage, either in equity or nutted-ness or both. Treat it like other spots where this is true.

For example, on AJ6hh or KK4 when you raise from the SB (in 6-max) and are called by the BB.

It's important to release yourself from the focus on who raised/bet the last street. Poker is just range A vs range B on board XYZ. When range advantage shifts, so should the betting.

HeinousFiend 8 years, 2 months ago

43:00 any chance of elaborating on the 3b bb v sb with QQJ6ds ?
is it better than call HU ip?

Albin 8 years, 2 months ago

I tough this was slightly loose to but I think the answer is that our hand will play very well and have good equity when villain decides to call

Phil Galfond 8 years, 2 months ago

I would 3bet this hand in HU PLO (oop), so I believe it's strong enough IP generally.

That said, if I'm reading the HUD correctly (which I'm totally guessing on based on the values), it looks like this villain doesn't raise often from the SB (24%). Against an opener that tight, assuming it's top 24% of hands, I would just call.

Albin 8 years, 2 months ago

5:50

Have been a way from poker a few months and trying to understand how AQ92ds could be a fold from CO vs SB cc and BB 3bet (pot). I quickly looked at some equities in propokertools and we was surprised too se that we only have about 28% here. Anyway if SB calls here too we only need 25%, right?

(60%) Relative position is bad
(25%) The flopebility is bad
(15%) It is going to be tough to play some Axx boards

The 3 main bad things I see with calling here is and () are my guesses to how much this factor affect this to make it a fold.

Another question I have is how wide is our folding range is this spot? If we fold this we must be folding over 20% here, right?

Thanks for a great video <3

Phil Galfond 8 years, 2 months ago

Thanks, Albin! Great and well-structured question.

You're right about the reasons, but I disagree on the order.

I think that flopability is the biggest factor (which ties in with the Axx board thought).

The disconnectivity of this hand really hurts, and there aren't many flops which give you a monster.

AQ5r
K98ss (Q hi FD)
J96hh (nut FD)
AJ2
QJ2
Q98
QJ9
A78 2bdfd

These flops range from very good to pretty good for our hand, and I'm barely excited to get in 3x pot with any!

There are a ton of worse flops that will force you to fold away good chunks of equity because your hand could easily be crushed by one of your two opponents.

we only have about 28% here. Anyway if SB calls here too we only need 25%, right?

I think that even if this number magically came out to 31% it might be a fold. It's really hard to realize your equity in a spot like this with a hand this weak.

Another question I have is how wide is our folding range is this spot?
If we fold this we must be folding over 20% here, right?

I think this hand is one of our weaker opens, especially in terms of how it stacks up in a 3way 3b pot, and we are also up against the SB and BB, which means stronger ranges than if it were BN and BB or CO and SB.

I'd be completely guessing, but I'd expect to fold around 12% in this spot?

jonna102 8 years, 2 months ago

45:00 top left table

I would recommend most players at $1/$2 to fold here preflop. Calling the first time around is already not awesome. I mean, you'll call and that's fine, but it's going to be very difficult to make any significant profit. Calling the squeeze though, you're getting awesome odds with a decent hand, yes. But you're getting good odds to get into a myriad of nightmare situations. Four-way SPR 1 spots are extremely tricky to play, they work very differently from HU stack-off situations, and you really REALLY want to get good information from the other players before making your own decision. In this situation you have good relative position, so that's pretty good. So a 4-way equity superstar can probably call pre, start by checking every flop, and play well enough to not lose after that.

The main issue is that you'll have enough equity to stack off fairly often, but your average equity when you do so won't be great. There's a massive risk of being dominated in multiple ways. So on some boards (and given some action) you may have to fold some hands that look very strong. On the other hand, this hand will also very often flop lots of tiny equity fragments. They all add up, and can give you surprisingly much equity in some situations where the naive player may not expect so. So you'll also get it in very light sometimes, and being able to tell the difference requires you to know hand values, board textures and opponent ranges extremely well. I have no doubt that there are players who can do it, but from what I see, most players in the $1/$2 games cannot.

With less knowledge about 4-way stackoffs, you'll end up in lots of situations where you seem to be locked into the pot and have to call even though it sucks. And then you'll complain about running bad and being unlucky, when in reality it's super close preflop, no upside, a potentially very large downside, you're mostly just feeding the variance and rake monsters, and you can avoid it easily by just folding.

Once you play $25/$50 you probably have to figure these situations out and be sure to play them well, but that's a long way from $1/$2.

P.S. I actually haven't run the math on this one, I just know it from experience and other similar situations. If someone were indeed to run the math, I expect that it would actually come out to be a close call. But that would also be with the assumption that you play these spots perfectly, which I've never seen any player do.

Phil Galfond 8 years, 2 months ago

Great post, Jonna.

This hand in this spot is definitely overvalued by most. In general I would agree with you completely, but the fact that we get to check to the 3-bettor and see what everyone else does when he (often) shoves makes me think the call is worthwhile.

Totally agree that people will get into trouble postflop and make some big mistakes too.

midori 8 years, 2 months ago

This is a fairly mathematical spot, and you can't NOT run the math and draw conclusions one way or another.

We need about 20% to call the squeeze (I don't know how much the rake will be exactly). On the flop we will need ~35% in a HU pot and much less in MW pots.

T987$ds flops top two or better 15.5% of the time. Bottom two or better, 19.1%. I have no doubt that we will get it in with top two or better at least (unless the board is all black), and worse two pairs usually have straight draws to go with them thanks to the good rundown structure of our hand (say on Q86 board we have bottom two + gutter), so sometimes you can stick it in with them as well.

This doesn't even include the times where we have strong draws like a pair + wrap (762r flop), wrap + FD, etc. Of course, we can't get it in every time we flop these kind of draws (if the action is heavy we can just check/watch/fold), but this all adds up.

So, on the flops that are "good" for us (i.e. where we decide to stack off), it's almost impossible for us not to have 35% in a HU pot. MW pots are a bit trickier but a) they don't happen very often (4-way stackoffs don't really happen very often, I can't recall the last time I saw it), and b) occasionally we will have good enough equity. You mentioned no upside and a potentially very large downside, but that's not true.

And sometimes, we can front jam on certain flops and clear up some equity by forcing some players to fold. We have at least three options here: donk jam, check/call (or check/jam), and check/fold.

All that said, whilst it is certainly true that people tend to overvalue hands like this in a MW pot, I think we have a clear preflop call in this particular spot. Postflop, you just have to be careful not to stack off too lightly, and if you stick to some guideline like "I'll get it in when I flop top two or better" you'll be in okay shape.

-- midori

DirtyD 8 years, 2 months ago

Jonna, if you have an example handy of a counterintuitive flop spot with a hand like this - either looks like a stackoff and isn't, or looks light but is a stackoff - could you post it? I think that would be super helpful. Thanks!

tsifknits 8 years, 2 months ago

Does that flop really smack anyone as a good one for our hand 4way? A three out nut gutter and 8 hi FD? So it must be a light stack off that looks like a fold but really isn't. If that's the case, it's because you're saying we frequently get it in with a range of hands that includes a lot of dry overpairs. Are dry overpairs an autoship on this flop 4 way?

dbkim92 8 years, 1 month ago

With SPR's of about 1 it probably is a ship with dry AA/KK.

I definitely think the preflop spot is more interesting and personally find myself calling both the initial bet and 3b and ending up confused on many flop.

Cobra Kai 7 years, 8 months ago

2:45 you said you don't like donking on 487. But on this board he is going to raise wraps, flush draws with overs and pair, sets that we are beating. This is about as good as it is going to get and we do some protection and at the same should get some value before the board gets to scary for him. Say he has TJQQ with no flush draw and decides to check back. We give a free card and its a flop he is going to call when we bet. Are you expecting him to bet this board that you can check raise? I feel we have no blockers to equity hands that will continue or even raise. If h had 569T I could see more merit we block more drawing hands then a hand that is more vulnerable that needs some protection. I think he can even just pot the flop if he has 9Txx hes not going anywhere especially if he has a high flush blocker. I think its a great spot to pot the flop. IT doesn't mean we have the nuts either he can look at it as if we have some sort of draw and we are trying to push him off an over pair. I would be doing this if i had some sort of straight and high flush draw. The worst thing in situations like this to me is giving him opportunity to check back ip that can play us perfectly letting him dictate the pot size.

Cobra Kai 7 years, 8 months ago

at 5:00 your folding to a 3b with 2 flush draws one a nut flush draw and a guy behind and we have position on both players? Is it due to him being some what of a short stakc? If your on btn and you get 3b from bb your telling me your folding AQ92 ds? I seen you call with way worse heads up tables. There is no way I am folding this hand double suited ip. Maybe single suited I would. OP ya but ip and the fact hes not 100 bbs tells me its possible hes a weaker player you would fold?. Maybe but I would be more inclined to see flop vs this kind of player. The fact hes not full stack leans more towards a recreational player that we will have big post flop edge against.

9:49 what would be the best bluffing card if we pair the 8? on 899 board? Is this a good spot to bluff both opponents off over pairs and maybe some weak draws? Or would you rather stick with hands that have more equity around straight and flush draw? So my question i guess is the blocker more relevant then bluffing with equity on paired boards?

texasflood2 3 years, 3 months ago

43 min, top left:

Does anyone agree with me the best option is 4bet? The reason is because the Big Blind, DickPrice, seems to be a very tight player. And he has 400bb. Utg has 250 bbs, so the scenario probably would be this one:

hero 4bets, BB 5bets, UTG folds, BTN folds; POT pre flop: $ 504,50 (rake $2,75)
Hero's equity against BB = 43%

EV = $ 501,75 * 0,43 - $196,25 = $19,50 = +975bb/100

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