Phil Reviews a Gentleman at $10/$20 PLO
Posted by Phil Galfond
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Hey Phil at 4:33 what size bet on the turn can we continue against with this hand.
what are some the weakest hands in our range that we can continue against vs this Pot size bet.
thanks
Even hands as strong as an open ended plus middling flush draw are getting iffy against full pot.
Our hand can call 1/4 or maybe 1/3. Not 1/2 pot.
I’d guess that any aces up calls, and a lot of Ace+draw.
Great to see a new vid! I think a part 2 to this would be great.
3:00 Our bdfd is weak and we are against a stronger range with the 4bet. Is it ever a thing to xf here?
15:20 if we had a bdfd do we actually prefer to chk back to avoid a xr?
17:00 if we bet this turn and miss river do we keep firing or is the 78 too bad of blockers to have?
Thanks!
These are great, thank you.
You’re very welcome!
11:16 Would be interested to see what equilibrium river play is facing the jam here. In practice not sure how many people are even leading all in with 99 and flushes; very hard to see what bluffs they can have.
I agree. I don't think the population would or should pure jam flushes, especially non-K-high ones. I like the fold and I'd think solver likes it too but haven't checked.
My (total) guess is that a solver wouldn’t fold this, that OOP would jam roughly Qhh+ for value, and would bluff a lot of Q98, J987, AQ8 type hands.
IP might call straight or better with an Ace blocker and Khh+.
Guesses like this will often be way off because if you misjudge how often each player has certain hands, the results might change a lot, but in-game, this is roughly how I’d try to play.
I ran this spot and the summary is you were spot on @phil. Well done. Here are the takeaways.
1) OOP checks the Q-flush 30%, blocks 9%, jams 61%. K-flush checks 50%, blocks 40%, jams 9%.
2) IP calls this combo KhQTT 100%.
3) OOP bluffs with most Q8 and 78 on river.
Why I got it wrong:
A) I was struggling to identify easy bluffs for OOP but once you pointed out Q8 and 87 those are very clear good bluffs.
B) I thought SPR was higher. I looked at OOP stack as effective size so odds were better than I thought. But, I think if I ran it at deeper it would still be pure call with TT.
Thanks for that Zach.
2:10. As IP on Turn it feels like a spot that our value and bluffs might want to min raise? Thoughts on that vs a jam? It's a board that IP would want to do a lot of calling with his rare 5x and slowplayed QQ to protect given most of his turn call range will be AQ, KK and big draws. But a min raise puts OOP in an awkward spot. I wonder how KK and AA are supposed to react to a min raise? Id expect pure call and mix in some xf's on rivers but seems like a tricky spot for oop facing a minR. It also feels a little tricky vs an IP turn call. I wouldn't be surprised if we are supposed to check a portion of our KK and possibly AA on the river.
Vs a minraise, OOP will do some jamming with overpairs I’m pretty sure. Some calling too, of course.
As for how I like it vs. jamming: my guess is that the EV difference is negligible in theory. In practice, it might perform better but I’m not sure. You need to find bluffs with some weird combos because a lot of the semibluffs you can jam on turn don’t want to minraise-fold.
I suspect, btw, with a jam or call strat, IP calls 100% of boats and jams a bunch of trips.
Hey Phil i am enjoying the yourube channel aswell. The last video about the state of poker today is really cool. For someone who started playing back before black friday and now playing in the regulated markets in canada it feels like a seconed poker boom. Apologies for the thread derail.
Cheers.
Glad you enjoyed that one! Thanks for letting me know :)
Hi Phil! Always enjoy listening your soothing voice breaking down hands ;P
Cheers!
Thank you!!
Thanks for great vid! learning PLO is fun!
You're very welcome!
Hey Phil! At 15:20, would you ever semi bluff-Jam turn since we block so much of villains calling range? We rep K's well (his 3 betting range also consists of fewer KK's than our opening c/o range contains). We block the KQTx 3bets. He has fewer AAxxCC's when he checks flop..
What would your semi bluff-jam range look like on this turn?
great vid, love the format. Thanks Phil
Definitely one of the videos that I learned the most in the last few months, I hope a series like this continues, as this video format is very good for understanding your thought process, which I think is one of its strengths.
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