Have a ton of respect for your game, stevie. Looking forward to future content. The ICM review ended a bit abruptly so I'm going to take a look at it.

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Question: What is the breakeven fold rate (F)? (cEV vs $EV)

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Payout: 15500/15500/1400/1400/1400/775

Other Stacks After Hand (nearest hundred): 20400/31300/12100/23700/9000

Assume Villain 3b/calls off AK/JJ+/50%TT; thus our equity, eq = 32.2% when called

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Scenarios

1) We fold to 3-bet: stack_fold = 24900, EV_fold = $5611; villain's stack = 40500

2) We jam, villain folds: stack_jam_fold = 31600, EV_jam_fold = $6663; villain's stack = 33900

3) We jam, villain calls, we win: stack_jam_call_win = 54300, EV_jam_call_win = $9736; villain's stack = 11100

4) We jam, villain calls, we lose: stack_jam_call_lose = 0, EV_jam_call_lose = $0

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cEV analysis

stack_fold = (F)(stack_jam_fold) + (1-F)[eq(stack_jam_call_win)+(1-eq)(stack_jam_call_lose)]

24900 = F(31600) + (1-F)[0.322(54300) + 0]

=> F = 0.525

=> breakeven fold rate = 52.5%

=> @ F = 0.525, cEV_jam = neutral, $EV_jam = -$623

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$EV analysis

EV_fold = (F)(EV_jam_fold) + (1-F)[eq(EV_jam_call_win)+(1-eq)(EV_jam_call_lose)]

$5611 = F($6663) + (1-F)[0.322($9736) + 0]

=> F = 0.702

=> breakeven fold rate = 70.2%

=> @ F = 0.702, cEV_jam = +2490, $EV_jam = neutral

Given your expertise in SnGs, I would be interested in your views on the flaws (?) in ICM. For example, as your stack dwindles, the set of +$EV spots available to you often shrinks. How closely do you personally play according to ICM? When do you deviate, if ever?

Concept video?

And would you recommend Applications of NL Hold'em?

Great video Stevie. I thought the A8 overbet and J7 donk-bet on the flop were both really interesting hands. Well played mate.

I felt like the ICM review ended a bit abruptly too, and i was intresting in that. Anyways really nice video. 

And i hope can see more videos of you talking about this things, ICM, math, general concepts.

Hey sorry about that ending guys, it was an editing mistake. Thank you yoren for finishing the math, looks good. We can actually take it one step further and calculate that given that calling range of about 3% of hands and a break-even fold rate of 70% he needs to have a minimum 3b% of x*.30 = 3, x = 3/.30 = 10%. Pretty high but I think a reasonable assumption given stack sizes and his total 3b number of 13% in my hud.

Thought it was a great video Stephen  n so much better seeing all hands and as gave feel for table dynamics

Are you sure it's right to call off in that J7 hand? I mean it really sucks if we lose that pot. Yeah his range doesn't look strong but even losing 30% seems annoying. It's interesting because in most formats having a big stack close to a bubble allows you to pummel everyone else because they have to tighten their ranges, but in a sattelite the big stack is the one who really doesn't want to take any variance. It seemed like you were taking a lot of your +chip spots though. I feel like the best way to exploit a big stack playing a lot of hands is to literally just pile on him every hand. I mean in some cases calling KK is not that attractive. (this could be very wrong lol). like that AJ hand for example like you have 70k is it even worth it for you to be playing a pot with that guy? we don't need all the chips, after all. sorry for being a bit rambly here, watched this vid a few days ago. any thoughts you can give on just general theory of how to play different stacks in a satty. and do you like pakman's play (he must have thought his FE was super high).

i guess the tl; dr version would be, how do you discern the point at which it's prudent to play super tight, as opposed to when you need to be in there battling.

Hi, 

when you say: "the bigger your stack, the more +$EV spots you will have so it can be correct to take higher variance plays in the lead up to points in the tournament where ICM has a big impact so you can be the one pooping on everyone."

How would you define the high variance there? And not just in the satellite but in a general tournament..

For example,  

You have 40bb, raises,  somebody 3bets you to 4,5bb from the big blind with total stack of 23bb and you shove with 88. If you know he has AQo, would you prefer him to call or to fold?

In this example I would guess that is better that he folds, but what if it was a 62/38 situation or with he has 30bb?

Lets do the Ev:

if he folds ( with sb and antes): +11,5bb

if he calls: 31 x.55 - (19 x .45) = + 8,5bb

Because if it is a flip, you  prob will go with the higher ev play. But in a 67% favorite situation, if you can play a big pot with this good equity would you be willing to give up some Ev? What are your thoughts about it?

ty

Berbel

I would like more satellite stuff too..

Hey berbel, good question. I guess the best representation of my point would be if you are in a pot with someone facing an all-in bet with a lot of money already in the middle. You determine that it is very close between calling or folding based on the merits of your hand, however if you fold you will be left with 17bbs towards the bottom of the remaining field and be pretty handcuffed but if you call and win you will be the chipleader and can use that advantage to accumulate a lot of chips in the upcoming hands. This could happen, for example, somewhat near the bubble of a live tournament where you clash with the only other good player at the table who is seated on you're immediate left. You might be a little more inclined to say, call his reshoves because the times you bust him will result in you being able to open almost every hand and build a huge stack where you would otherwise have to tighten up to avoid getting exploited. 

I am a little confused about your math but I would say that these considerations should only really come into consideration in spots that are already really close...the vast majority of the time it will still be correct to take the best vacuum play.

Great Vid!  More satty vids especially ones with more seats given out.  Thanks