Hey Simon,

Well firstly we have to think about what GTO is. If you look at a solver it will be perfectly balanced on the river and so the answer is no, a solver playing vs a solver wouldn't ''think'' like this on the river. If however you nodelocked in a solver OOP to not be balanced on the river and have too many bluffs, the solver would now call all its bluffcatchers. Conversely if you nodelocked OOP to have too much value the solver would now fold all of its bluffcatchers.

We need to remember in game that we aren't playing against solvers and instead we are playing against unbalanced humans who will often have too many or too little bluffs in a given spot.

What I've suggested here can give you an idea of where the threshold is. However there are also some negatives to this approach. One negative could be that we don't know OOPs range on the river, maybe he has a personal rule that he will never probe turn (probe turn = an out of position bet made after the preflop aggressor had the opportunity to continuation bet on the prior street, but didn't) with an unmade hand and so on the river he only has value in this line. Maybe he has a personal rule that he always goes for a check raise on the turn with his value and so in this line he only has bluffs on the river. Maybe his preflop range is really skewed towards being too tight or too loose, both will have major implications on our river decision. Human biases can also affect this way of approaching the game. However in a spot where i don't have reads against a player i could choose to stick to what i think is GTO on the river or i could try to make what i think is a better estimation by hand reading and counting combos.

The reason i think this can be better is that in some spots you'll quickly find that based on his assumed range an average player will get to a spot where he finds it really difficult based on his range the action and the board to find bluffs and in other spots given his range the action and the board he will find it too easy to overbluff. In those scenarios we can find a pure call or pure fold with our bluffcatchers. In other scenarios we might not be able to perform this exercise with any degree of confidence for instance playing HU where its extremely difficult to track ranges preflop through to river.

Let me know if you have any follow up questions.

As for counting combos, there are a lot of resources online that can help you with this, so I would recommend just having a search but yes preflop there are 6 combinations of 22.

Hey Humberto.cunha91 I'm doing good thanks yourself?
Thanks for the positive feedback.
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Hey, thanks for the reply, I don't think there is anything wrong with your thought process and in a solver the EV of bet and check will probably be close, however I do think that you're over valuing in your thought process the times that we bet and face a jam. Here's my thoughts:

So you're right in that if we bet turn and get raised its not great because we will likely be behind but as you say we have the right price to call (so its not a mistake), however, you have to keep in mind what's most likely to happen on the turn and I don't think that scenario will happen that often. For example, its much more likely that villain has hands like QJ KQ KJ AQ AJ 45 56 67 66 89 9T 99 A5 A7 than he is to have a hand that shoves turn which will be something like AT+.

Something else that I think is also more likely than facing a jam when we bet on turn is when we check and it goes check check. We will find ourselves OOP on a lot of rivers where the value of our hand has decreased against an opponent who can make a lot of better hands that would have folded turn. Even if he doesn't, we may face aggression that could be tough to defend against on a lot of rivers which could potentially happen a lot if we check turn and check river.

Villain will of course sometimes have hands that are ahead of us that call but even so if we continue betting turn we still improve on a 9 or a heart river where we can now jam river.

Overall my thoughts on turn here with this hand is that I can get value from worse, protection, and I can also still improve on rivers against hands that are better than mine currently. Those factors for me are more important than the times I bet and face a jam cause even when that happens I still have a hand that can comfortably call.

All the best

Hey ModernGrinder, thanks for the positive feedback again.

My next video will be me reviewing a members live play footage so keep an eye out for that. Glad to hear you've been getting value from my videos. I will also mention that in upcoming videos I'd also like to provide more content on transitioning from live to online and online to live too.

Ummm i would think that at 50nl a lot of regs will think in terms of ranges.