Analyzing Big Pots that I Lost
Posted by Paul Gough
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Hi Paul.
36:20 I feel like for a non gto solver regular human like me, betting lower pocket pairs like tt-jj with a spade on turn complicates the tree a bit too much. I don't think we fold out any better and not a lot of worse call. I think it puts us in a crappy spot on the river. If we do bet turn and river bricks off would you look to bluff bet those pairs with a spade?
Thanks!
Hi SoundSpeed
Yea i think if we bet turn we for sure have to think about bluffing these on river, i think they will do a good job of blocking OOPs flushes and when bet on turn and called i doubt they have much showdown.
Paul,
The A2o hand that you played at ~19:00 on board of 8hKh9c turn Qc river 2s, on flop A2o does a fair amount of betting but shuts down on turn, is this mostly due to villain folding out the dominating Ax portion of their range on flop so on turn we want to now bluff with hands that block the straights and not the weak Ax portion of our range? Seems like our objective of getting dominating hands out should have been accomplished on flop and now the turn bringing possible straight we shift to hands that block straights and the good top pair/second pair combos. I imagine this is true for river bluffs as well. Is this how you see this spot?
Thanks Paul.
Hey 777TripSevens777
Yea i think you're correct about turn, we also just have a lot of better bluff candidates now too as our flop bluffs with a BDFD have picked up equity so i think betting those more would be good as well as the hands you mentioned.
As for river that is also true however now we want to bluff the Tx Jx that doesnt have showdown whilst AT AJ do have some small amount of showdown that they dont need to be bluffed. At least of course that is in the sim.
Paul,
Thought that the last hand where you had TT with a spade on AsKs3s turn 3c river 9s facing check raise on flop check check turn and check raise on river is interesting. Seems as though strategy on river could be off by quite a bit if villain is checking more hands on turn and river than equilibrium. Villain arrives on river after checking with more strong hands than they are supposed to which would have hero betting less I suppose. You mentioned in the video that the ranges on river are different due to villain deviating on turn and river (which makes this spot a guessing game in real time), I am just curious how much you think this changes hero betting range on river. I would imagine some of the hands you thought you would not bet on river turn out to be check backs when node locked for the deviations you think villain is making here. What are your thoughts?
Thanks Paul.
Yea i agree, i think some of those hands would be very bad bets in that case so leading us to check more. Great observations and deviations :)
Nice vid Paul, enjoyed it :)
Thanks mx404
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