Really good vid Patrick ive recently done a pop up overhaul to group some of these stats closer together and it seems im on the right track, in your opinion when it comes to "downstream" stats particulary WWSF WTSD , W$SD what kind of sample size are we looking for not to be misled? i will usually look at #of opportunities regardless of # of actual hand and combine with early access stats like Vpip PFR and RFI. to get a "feel" but at what point do you put more "faith" in the numbers?
Unfortunately there is no precise figure here, just got to use your judgement. I think youre pretty correct that #opportunities is more relevant than #hands.
This is especially apparent when you look at the number of instances we collect data on an opponent in x hands comparing flop cbet to 4B'ing preflop for example
Hi Patrick. Thanks for the shoutout and the video.
One question I have about choosing hands preflop (to 3bet or 4bet or whatever) which you discuss in the "3bet" section of your video. Suppose we determine that this is a good spot to 3bet (say, Villain folds a lot to 3bets and/or plays straightforward postflop in 3bet pots). There are two approaches one could reasonably take:
Take a hand which is mixed frequency fold/call/3bet and then increase the frequency of 3bet.
Take a hand which is just outside our range (say, K8o is at the cusp of our calling range, and we're sitting with K7o in our hand). We could then use this hand for a polarized 3bet.
Do you think both approaches are valid? Or do you prefer one over the other?
Speaking for myself I tend to prefer the first option, because I often play with linear 3bet range (3bet or fold in position); and my ranges include mixed strategy hands, so it is easy to increase frequencies. Also, it makes theoretical sense, because we're only fiddling around with choices which have the same EV.
However, when opponent is folding too much to 3bets, it can also make sense to go for a more polarized strategy, and not "waste" good hands by 3betting.
I think that the first approach is much more valid from a theoretic standpoint and for the second to be better we would really need to be playing vs a fairly worthless opposition.
If my opponent is folding too much to 3Bs it would have to be a really high number to make me want to 3B the more 'garbage' portions of PF range. Usually I just expand the mixed frequencies of all non 'premium' hands preflop slightly
Hi patrick, excellent video. By far your best video imo. Often these kind of fundamentals get forgotten while grinding.
Regarding the defend strategy vs 3bet, I have a question:
Would you say that a monker UTG 4bet range (4bing hands like: AJs, KQs, KJs, etc at a decent freq.) when hero is OOP is a more profitable strategy when playing NL100+, because people do not cold call very often and 3bet a linear range IP (and therefore call more vs 4bets)?
When playing lower stakes people tend to cold call more and have a polar 3bet range (and therefore fold more vs 4bets) we should tend to call the 3bet with hands like AJs, KQs, KJs, etc mostly and use hands like AQo, A4s, etc as 4bet bluffs?
I asked MMASherdog in one of his streams this question and he said we should stick to the monker ranges even at lower stakes because of the rake. But I am not sure if this the way to go, because imo we are then wasting a nice calling hand vs the 3bet as a 4bet bluff.
Thanks man! I really thought this video was strong so I'm glad that you felt the same.
I think that sticking to monker ranges will always be a reasonable strategy, but if we have bigger samples on players we can probably make exploitative adjustments that yield higher ev. I think choosing more of the AQo type combos would make sense if a player is playing a more 'polarised' 3B strategy with a high Ft4B.
Ultimately, it wont matter too much in terms of overall ev though
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Really good vid Patrick ive recently done a pop up overhaul to group some of these stats closer together and it seems im on the right track, in your opinion when it comes to "downstream" stats particulary WWSF WTSD , W$SD what kind of sample size are we looking for not to be misled? i will usually look at #of opportunities regardless of # of actual hand and combine with early access stats like Vpip PFR and RFI. to get a "feel" but at what point do you put more "faith" in the numbers?
Unfortunately there is no precise figure here, just got to use your judgement. I think youre pretty correct that #opportunities is more relevant than #hands.
This is especially apparent when you look at the number of instances we collect data on an opponent in x hands comparing flop cbet to 4B'ing preflop for example
Great video! I think your best ...btw which is the model of your glasses?
Thanks for the kind words!
Gunnar Optiks Cerberus Onyx
Hi Patrick. Thanks for the shoutout and the video.
One question I have about choosing hands preflop (to 3bet or 4bet or whatever) which you discuss in the "3bet" section of your video. Suppose we determine that this is a good spot to 3bet (say, Villain folds a lot to 3bets and/or plays straightforward postflop in 3bet pots). There are two approaches one could reasonably take:
Do you think both approaches are valid? Or do you prefer one over the other?
Speaking for myself I tend to prefer the first option, because I often play with linear 3bet range (3bet or fold in position); and my ranges include mixed strategy hands, so it is easy to increase frequencies. Also, it makes theoretical sense, because we're only fiddling around with choices which have the same EV.
However, when opponent is folding too much to 3bets, it can also make sense to go for a more polarized strategy, and not "waste" good hands by 3betting.
I think that the first approach is much more valid from a theoretic standpoint and for the second to be better we would really need to be playing vs a fairly worthless opposition.
If my opponent is folding too much to 3Bs it would have to be a really high number to make me want to 3B the more 'garbage' portions of PF range. Usually I just expand the mixed frequencies of all non 'premium' hands preflop slightly
Hi patrick, excellent video. By far your best video imo. Often these kind of fundamentals get forgotten while grinding.
Regarding the defend strategy vs 3bet, I have a question:
Would you say that a monker UTG 4bet range (4bing hands like: AJs, KQs, KJs, etc at a decent freq.) when hero is OOP is a more profitable strategy when playing NL100+, because people do not cold call very often and 3bet a linear range IP (and therefore call more vs 4bets)?
When playing lower stakes people tend to cold call more and have a polar 3bet range (and therefore fold more vs 4bets) we should tend to call the 3bet with hands like AJs, KQs, KJs, etc mostly and use hands like AQo, A4s, etc as 4bet bluffs?
I asked MMASherdog in one of his streams this question and he said we should stick to the monker ranges even at lower stakes because of the rake. But I am not sure if this the way to go, because imo we are then wasting a nice calling hand vs the 3bet as a 4bet bluff.
Whats your opinion on that?
Thanks man! I really thought this video was strong so I'm glad that you felt the same.
I think that sticking to monker ranges will always be a reasonable strategy, but if we have bigger samples on players we can probably make exploitative adjustments that yield higher ev. I think choosing more of the AQo type combos would make sense if a player is playing a more 'polarised' 3B strategy with a high Ft4B.
Ultimately, it wont matter too much in terms of overall ev though
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