I think it was a close spot and definitely not a huge mistake if it was one. He showed that he had 27% equity against that specific hand, but against the range that might include hands like A3, A5, JT, QJ, etc he is likely at least even money to shove there if not the favorite. Short stackers do weirdest things sometimes. Overall, the decision is close and it is in the gray area, so that means either call or fold is not a terrible decision. I may slightly lean to folding there just because it was 3 handed pot and it was less likely he would be air balling. Heads up I would prob call. 

Hey guys appreciate the analysis here. I've expanded my thoughts on this hand a bit more in response to nema vlad's range equities below.

Correct, seeing him not jam the nut flush does tell me quite a bit about how he views the game. And you are also right that I will definitely not value bet this thinly against him in the future. River becomes a checkfold I think, once I know he is this tight.

Agree with you and some others on the TT, it's probably just a bit thin in these positions. However I did make the assumption during the hand (although incorrectly) that we was a looser player based on the stats and what I had seen over a tiny sample.

The QJ I think has just high enough up in my range that I feel like if I am bluffing with it, I am bluffing that spot too much. You are correct about the validity of the blockers I hold, although I do expect AQ to 3b pre almost always though.

Thank you. I discussed the TT a bit above, but going based on my assumption of the guy being a loose passive type recreational player I think it is defensible, against the range you mention. 

Yes I think the AK is a very crucial spot where he has an extremely tough time repping any value hands, and the river shove keeps it clean. My non-showdown red line goes downwards as well, but I still think that non-showdown situations are extremely important and we should always work on improving them. I do think there are a lot of good players who succeed with a losing red line.

Thanks mate!

I think you are making some unfair assumptions though. Saying stuff like, "9x will always go all in" is an exaggeration and not always the case. 

What if this player actually check calls most of his 9x on this dry flop? Think about how easily that could substantially change his range to be something completely different from what you are suggesting.

Thanks for running this. I was just going to do something similar myself. 

As the math shows, the spot is extremely close. And as soon as you add a little more randomness into his shove (like a random QJo or AJo bluff) you will see the equity can shift enough for the jam to be ok.

I also think shoving incorrectly here, will be a much smaller mistake than folding incorrectly could be. What I mean by this is that his value range can only expand so far, however, in theory his bluffing range could expand a ton. So there is the off chance that if you fold this spot, you are making an enormous mistake, however getting it in incorrectly can only at worst be a small mistake.

@nema. Your method and conclusion are completely wrong. Every time we call we lose an ADDITIONAL $26, whereas every time we fold we lose an additional $0, therefore it is a -$26 EV move. The current pot size, prior to his raise amount, is $90 ($36 pre + $27 + $27) but it is irrelevant how much was specifically put in on which street: You are mistakenly thinking that by folding, the arbitrary loss of the $27 flop bet offsets the $26 loss from calling. Another way of looking at it is that a fold results in a total loss of $39 (what we have so far invested) whereas a call results in a total loss of $65 ($160 - $95) which of course demonstrates the same conclusion that calling is a worse decision by an amount of $26 ($65 - $39). In simple terms, would you pay $121 for a 27% chance of winning $330?

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So my opinion is that it is a very clear fold, especially given how dry the flop is and the fact that it is multi-way.

I enjoyed the video though Parker. Very good, thanks.

If you are going to say he can jam random stuff like A2 then I think it's completely plausible to add random bluffs like QJs, 56s into his range as well.

Cheers!

I think KJo is plenty strong enough for me to be comfortable flatting a SB vs Btn 3bettor.

Yeah I definitely agree that this hand is a good one to possibly bluff with. But it also has the tiniest bit of showdown value which makes it ever so slightly better relative to 45 as a check back. It's def close and reasonable spot to just bet the river.