So much love for this video, Phil !
Was looking at a similar spot where I didn't know if shoving or calling was better and was wondering how to analyze that <3
How many hours would you say did it take you to do this analysis?

my guess: NIT Andrew Robl, Legend Brian Townsend

any more hints about who the NIT and Legend are?

andrew robl

1 Could you give us a grasp of how much of thoughts you did during this decision live?
2 How would your thoughts process look now after making this video?

Fantastic vid, Phil!
Very impressive work, man.

I have a few questions for anybody who wants to contribute:

• Phil's analysis clearly shows, given his reasonable assumptions, that he is better off calling turn then jamming. But doesn't this also assume that he will play perfect on every river? Phil showed a breakdown of each river to show we have good visibility with our equity distribution, but even still, we will make mistakes that impact our EV. I understand the value from this video is in the method and not necessarily the result, but I feel like this is important for practical application.
  Is it possible to quantify with any accuracy the margin for error Phil is allowed to have that would still justify calling turn?

• Also, is there merit to potting flop for an effective jam given legend's stack? A quick sim from OO using a 6% range (high-card equity), shows we have ~62% with our specfic hand so there is equity to push here. At 3.5 spr after villain cbet, villain call/jam range needs about 44% equity against our range. I approximate villain call range to be: 82+, (AA:97+), (AA:hh), (KK:97+), (KK:hh), (J9+:hh). If this is acceptable, villains calls half the time at 50.58% and Phil nets $6,171. Which seems decently close to ev call($6,806), especially if you account for margin for error.

Well done Phil

Just had to out do me. Not cool.

I love the feature of pokerjuice that shows equity on different rivers in a bar graph. Anyone know of a program that can do this for NLHE?

just a comment on the format as it is too high elite content for me and it is not my variant of game. this is the kind of video that I consider as a real training stuff and a high value because it forces us to work on the topic. Some hard work has been put into it in order to make a high valuable learning material.
Hope, this kind of stuff will be available for MTT as I feel, this variant is not so much deep investigate especially recently. a lot of session review, HH review, live session are thrown as training material and not so much deep fundamental stuff with deep investigation on examples. I'd like from MTT coach a deeper work instead of making review that don't need too much work on. I don't say that it is not great content, it is most of the time, but it could be balanced with deep stuff, topics, that need investigation from the coach instead of just making a review.

Inb4 someone makes a video named "One hand, 990 Runouts"..

As always, a very nice vid Phil! Will watch it to the end by tonight and throw in some questions :O

The nit is socalquest/don nguyen and villain is prahlad :)

Total ripoff of freeman's title. Immediate compensation required to prevent legal action imo.

Title aside, this is one of your best videos ever. It's easy to tell from watching the video what a hustle it was to make it. But it was extremely educating, not just because of the strategic value but also as a demonstration of what's possible to achieve with in-depth analysis.

As for the hand itself, I think the reason so many people view shoving as standard is because shoving is a lot easier. Calling with this type of hand on the turn just feels very messy intuitively because there are so few rivers where you are fistpumping to get the money in. It's very tempting to choose the emotionally rewarding (and profitable) play of getting your money in as a favorite against his range, but it's that Galfond mentality that says "rivers are tough for him too" and "we'll figure it out when we get there". This is one of the most valuable things I've learnt from watching your videos and this particular video is just a beautiful representation of that philosophy.

Thanks for taking the time to make this video, if your goal was to add value to your members then your time was well spent.

just wanna leave the obligatory comment saying this video was super awesome and thank you so much for doing that much work for us

Hey Phil,

Excellent video!

I have you on around 51% equity on the turn vs a range that reflects the same assumptions you make about villain (but not using PJ), so it looks like your PJ calc is probably robust.

Your result is a ~6% EV spread between jamming turn (52% of pot) and calling turn (58% of pot), this seems extremely ambitious to me at first glance because you only have one small bet left in play to leverage on the river. Villain has to be playing exceptionally badly for you to realize that large of an advantage from that small of a bet, especially since your hand only rivers polarized versus villain's range on the 8/2/7 offsuit for value and on the 4h as a bluff/fold (you have ~4.5% here by my calc). You're between 14% and 34% equity on most of your other bad rivers, mostly hearts and Tx. Luckily, on your worst rivers, your range often improves, and on your best rivers your range gets weaker, so you'll likely way outperform what a toy game model of his range vs your exact hand would suggest. Even so, I think if villain plays well he should be cutting the advantage of your turn call from ~6% to ~2% or thereabouts.

The reason your calling advantage is so big in your calculation is that it seems like villain was playing poorly on almost every river, but some of the most obvious examples were ones like Jo-Qo, the Ko and the Ao. On the Jo/Qo you fold to a jam but value jam yourself, I think it's intuitive that this shouldn't happen if he's playing well. On all the rivers you define his value/bluff regions with reference to your range, not your hand, (which is correct, but I just mean that he doesn't need to beat 82 to shove) and given this methodology he should show up with relatively balanced ranges when he bets. Instead, on the Ko he has a ratio of 44:4 value:bluff and on the Ao he has 59:3 value:bluff and you again jam your hand for value against his checking region even though you're only 24% against his jamming region.

I'm certainly not disputing your reads (and I definitely can see a player like the one you described playing like this), but I just thought it's important to note that the lion's share of your play's EV comes from villain's poor play. However, I'm pretty sure calling will still win you an extra 1-3% of the pot even if the river play is good on both sides, and the reasons why this is the case are very similar to the ones you showed in the video. It's just that the magnitude of the improvement should be a lot smaller if villain bluffs with better frequencies, uses his blockers more efficiently, and check/calls a stronger range.

I can't even buy leafs tickets for 100 bucks... but I can watch this. What a crazy world we live in.

(I will admit using the Toronto Maple leafs as a measuring stick for value may not be ideal but hey...)

Villain PA? :)

I really liked this video. Very impressive that you put so much time behind the theory work before making the video. It really shows in the quality of the product.

Great video! I'll be honest the 1.5x speed feature was the absolute best suggestion for this video. Easy to rewind also if something is missed.

Seems like Patrik Antonius

Whats the measure of inaccuracy of those river EV calcls? And how do you guess villain's river strategy like that? I think you should try and do a second iteration i.e. fix your own strategy and come up with the best counter strategy for villain. After at least 3-4 iterations you can come up with the river EV.

great title

Didn't another instructor make a video that was based on this/had a similar title?
Who? Name please?

Hey Phil its a really great educational video,
I learned a lot about how to think about poker. Its a really great process you walk us through thanks for the time you dedicated for this video and in general for the pokerworld, I really appreciate your work, I wish you the best.