$10,000 WSOP HU Championship: Round 2
Posted by Nuno Alvarez
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Nuno,
Fun and interesting video on HU tournament play.
Thanks.
Thanks! Glad you enjoyed it.
Really enjoyed this one live and have been looking forward to seeing a review of it!
Thanks brother!
Dang really unlucky result, was hoping for a long series. Ts OTR would be nice but heck - this is how poker works.
Great commentary as always anyway, thanks Nuno :)
Thanks mate! Poker happens :)
Hey Nuno, enjoying the analysis as usual!
On this river you decided to give up with this hand and said that you think the river will be over-called on average. Please could you explain why you think that? Is it because of the way that people construct their check-back ranges on paired flops?
Hey matt! So sorry for the late reply, just saw these comments, somehow I missed them :(
Exactly as you put it! I think the check/back range here would be full of medium strength hands that will not fold enough especially on a K river.
No worries, you are usually one of the quickest to reply so I will forgive you!
So it is because of the combination of the paired board AND the K river that makes you think you will not get enough folds, or are paired boards and K rivers both over-defended in your opinion? If the river is a brick (not A or K), for example, would you consider bluffing?
For this spot you said you felt your opponent had something exactly like he had - K7 or K9, and said its not good to use a custom bet sizing here because its too face up. I thought it was ok to be face up on the river with your sizing so long as you included enough bluffs and traps in that range too? My sim on the river has a K worth around 50% pot and an A worth an overbet. Is the issue that he bet 45% pot rather than a pre-set button like 50%?
The idea of being face up OTR as long as you have enough bluffs is definitely valid unless your range needs to be played on the whole to be protected. The thing is that using such custom sizings runs the risk of just remembering to do so with your value hands and then bucket your bluffs into the sizing that feels like it accomplishes the most fold equity. For example in this particular spot I think is very easy for the OOP player to remember to use half pot with Kx but then end up putting all the missed straight draw combos into their PSB range or whatever because half pot feels like it would just get called too much.
Thanks for explaining! I agree with the logic, and I looked at MDA data for this spot in 6-max, and as you predicted the 50% pot sizing seems substantially less bluffed than the ~75% sizing (compared to a balanced bluffing frequency for each size). Also the fact that its 45% rather than 50% probably exacerbates this effect even more. Unlikely that someone gets to the river and thinks "I want to bluff 45% pot here because K7 wants to bet that size".
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