$40k NL Live Railbirding: T Duthweiler vs G Yakobishvili

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$40k NL Live Railbirding: T Duthweiler vs G Yakobishvili

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Nuno Alvarez

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$40k NL Live Railbirding: T Duthweiler vs G Yakobishvili

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Nuno Alvarez

POSTED Apr 10, 2024

Nuno Alvarez sweats a session with two heavyweights going at it and breaks down their lines and anything that can be gleaned from their showdowns.

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RunItTw1ce 11 months ago

With Duth being a stronger player thank Yako, what percentage of the time do you think Yako wins a HU match? Not sure how many hands they typically play, but I'm curious if a player who floats a bit too wide or uses wrong bet sizes too often on the smaller side. How often do they actually win?

Nuno Alvarez 11 months ago

Interesting question. It just depends entirely on how big the edge really is and how long the HU match will be. Over the course of a couple thousand HU hands, anything can happen really.

RunItTw1ce 11 months ago

Its obvious you spend a lot of time in the lab with your predictive bet sizing in most of the spots. Would be nice to see more showdowns. The adjustments he was making was doing what the hand wants to do mostly.

We saw a lot of 25% cbet sizes from Duth but on K76dd board we saw him size up around 1/2 pot with 85 trying to increase his FE perhaps. Then with 65d When he calls the 3bet, calls cbet, and then uses like 1/4 pot turn on J624dd? Where you mentioned he is just doing what his hand wants to do. So pair + FD trying to get some ace high floats in by giving them a price? Where they are likely only drawing to 4 outs.

Felt a bit one sided. When you have a pro like yourself explaining the action you can clearly see one player being out classed.

Nuno Alvarez 11 months ago

I do spend a fair amount in the lab indeed :P

We saw a lot of 25% cbet sizes from Duth but on K76dd board we saw him size up around 1/2 pot with 85 trying to increase his FE perhaps. Then with 65d When he calls the 3bet, calls cbet, and then uses like 1/4 pot turn on J624dd? Where you mentioned he is just doing what his hand wants to do. So pair + FD trying to get some ace high floats in by giving them a price? Where they are likely only drawing to 4 outs.

Yeah, exactly. It felt like he was using a lot of exploitative betsizes in general for what I saw.

matlittle 11 months ago

At ~9.50 we saw T Duthweiler min cbet A82ccc. You mentioned at the time that you thought this sizing down meant he was cbetting range, then we saw him Q9hh hand and it further supported that idea given that this is one of the prime check-back candidates on the flop. I have seen this increasingly often from regs, especially those playing higher stakes. From my sim, with a min cbet sizing, the solver is only betting 35% frequency on this board. It seems a pretty wild stretch to go from 35% to 100%. IP EV drops from 2.64 to 2.58. So I'm quite confused as to why I'm see this type of strategy so often. Does the player pool respond to this bet size so poorly in a bunch of spots that it makes for a very easy way to exploit player tendencies? Even if I nodelock in BB folding more and raising less than they should, I still only get a cbet frequency of around 55%.

Nuno Alvarez 11 months ago

Solver doesn't like this minbet strategy that much. I think that most regs use it as a way of oversimplifying the monotone boards since these are among the most difficult textures to play theoretically correct.

Does the player pool respond to this bet size so poorly in a bunch of spots that it makes for a very easy way to exploit player tendencies? Even if I nodelock in BB folding more and raising less than they should, I still only get a cbet frequency of around 55%.

I think the player pool does indeed respond to this betsize quite poorly so most players just simplify to rangeminbet these textures and hope their opponents don't punish them for it.

matlittle 11 months ago

Seemed like Yakobishvili was giving off constant timing tells. Sure, they are not 100% indicative of hand strength, but there were plenty of spots where both you and I were able to narrow their range down and remove/reduce combos of certain hand classes from their range based on how quickly they acted on that street or a previous street. Did you feel that during the match T Duthweiler was making exploits based on this? I saw one river overbet from TD after GY snap checked back the turn, and I thought that was potentially a good way to bluff and counter this, so perhaps that was a bluff but we didn't get to see it.

Nuno Alvarez 10 months ago

Hey mat! Sorry I missed your comment somehow.

I think Tobias was for sure making exploits based on this given some of the hands we saw and some of the lines he took.

matlittle 10 months ago

I thought timing tells would be very unlikely from a high stakes reg, but having seen it a few times in some of your videos, I am under the impression that it is still reasonably common?

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