Good question RunItTw1ce

I think he's forced to defend almost every Qx just because of the equity vs Stefan's 2p hands, any flush draw and any 45. I believe he gets to fold every single 7x and medium PP.

EDIT: I actually checked this and seems like I was somewhat accurate with my analysis.

Nuno Alvarez looks good just fold out the Q6-Q4 that block some of the bluffing range but also can't improve to a better 2 pair if Stefan has a hand like Q7.

Correct! Note as well that Q6 has awful reverse implied odds vs the main bluffing hand for OOP which is 54o.

31%, 71% or 29%, 77% is basically the same betting split structure for a human IMO.

Both of these players are just a nightmare to play against though.

Gotta agree with this though :P

There are quite a few All Ins in HU in general but there's certainly not as much aggression as some people tends to expect.

Indeed! Stay tuned for that one matlittle :)

26:00 - Very good question. In my experience this is extremely tied to a couple of factors.

1. IP bet sizing. If IP delay cbets for 67% or bigger you don't want to x/r larger than 4.5x/6x.

2. How ''volatile'' the equity of your good hands is. This is a new concept that I discovered lately. When your good hands are likely to retain most of their equity on most runouts, you usually wanna put a lot of money in. However, if the board is much less static and the equity of your good hands is going to vary a lot depending on the river card, you usually don't want to be x/r larger than 6x.

Qh7s2h

Qh7s4h

Note that this really big x/r sizing never gets used on paired/flush turns either because IP is much less capped on those spots.

Thanks, great answer!
Had not considered the volatility of the board before, that's very interesting. I guess it's similar to other scenarios where we are OOP and tend to size down on volatile boards before the river. I.e. the more likely our value hands are to be devalued by river cards, the more we size down when OOP given that we can't check back bad rivers with value hands that are devalued by draw completing rivers.

Note that this really big x/r sizing never gets used on paired/flush turns either because IP is much less capped on those spots.

Yeh I had assumed that your opponent has to be hard-capped to make massive check raises, i.e. the flopped nuts is still the nuts on the turn.

Exactly as the same as those scenarios. Spot on :)

I'm not sure I understand your logic behind checking back very often twice with pocket pairs when the turn pairs. I guess that you're thinking about the probe range from OOP being stronger? In any case PP's have a lot of incentive on protection betting in these spots since they go up on value and they become more vulnerable because they can get counterfeited on some rivers.

DCB

I actually even fell a bit short on how thin OOP can valuebet in this line hehe. Looks like any Kx that plays gets to valuebet

Nuno Alvarez impressive KX value bets! I watched a bluff the spot youtube video last night and he called Q high in a line that didn't make sense to him. So these K-high value bets can be quite good!

I actually even fell a bit short on how thin OOP can valuebet in this line hehe. Looks like any Kx that plays gets to valuebet

That's pretty wild, I am just a 6max nit and not used to such wide ranges!

Thank you postwar18! Coming next :)