Nightly $162 Hand History Review

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Nightly $162 Hand History Review

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Sam Grafton

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Nightly $162 Hand History Review

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Sam Grafton

POSTED Jan 01, 2016

Sam reviews the $162 which he managed to take down!

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Kaizen 9 years, 2 months ago

nice vid sam which hands can we check raise the flop with at 37'20 in semi bluff as we certainly can have our flopped flush no. I thought that it was a pretty good candidate to do that, ty ;)

Sam Grafton 9 years, 2 months ago

Check raise is certainly a nice option.

With the King and the Ten out there we don't have as many flush draws as you might think, although as I say in the video, this doesn't matter a great deal as I also don't have a huge amount of off-suit hands with a heart. I'm certainly continuing in a lot more hands with a flop check-raise as that is the direction solvers as suggesting we go in, so without much real show down value I think a craise may well be better.

Being results oriented, of course, as a ten (our card!) came on the turn, in this instance the check-call worked out perfectly. A mixed strategy is probably optimal.

Kaizen 9 years, 2 months ago

Haha cool ok ty for the quick answer !
Yeah it was a nice card for us on the turn ^^
We have something like 5-7 combos of flushes flop if my preflop range is not too bad (the T and K block a lot of them indeed i underestimated that) so we definitely can't check raise all of our combos of QoJh, QhJo. I slightly prefer to choose the Qh ones but it doesn't matter at all and we are in end of MTT so maybe he can think that we overbluff this spot. GG for the perf and the AQdd hand was funny lol we don't see that that often

Beatnik1988 9 years, 2 months ago

Hi Sam, nice video. I'm particularly interested in the hand at 18.30 where you pay off a river bet getting 4.7/1 on a Th Ax 6h 7 A. On this board texture where the OR has raised utg +1 and presumably has a normal range do they ever have enough bluffs here to be paying off? It's a multiway pot and it looks like they have exactly what they have. Futhermore, they can check Axhh twice and would presumably bet their gutshots on the flop or turn. Obviously a pretty minor hand in an mtt but it's a spot where it might be interesting to go into appropriate betting/ bluffing ranges in more detail. Anyway keep up the good work!
Cheers

Sam Grafton 9 years, 2 months ago

Hi Beatnik,

Firstly, let me apologise for the delay in replying. I completely missed this comment.

I'm glad you draw attention to this spot, because I think on reflection I am a little too quick to cry pot odds and justify the call. Even with a little analysis it's hard to reach a firm conclusion and it depends greatly on our opponents tendencies.

The first interesting thing to note is that 9c9d are actually two pretty bad blockers to have in this spot. Our opponents complete give-ups that he might make a desperate stab on the river are Q9s, J9s and possibly K9s, with no flush draw or back door, and we completely block them.

So really it comes down to if with what frequency our opponent bets QJo, KQo. If we give him all combos which don't contain a heart we have a slam dunk call. If on the other hand he stabs them all on turn, or flop, we're bang under it. Cbet stats and turn probe are gonna be crucial. In the equilab calc I've posted, I also have him only getting to the river with KTs combos, so again the amount of Tx he checks will influence the outcome.

Overall, however, I'd lean toward agreeing with your intuition that this is a marginally losing call

zsemo 9 years, 2 months ago

Hi Sam, nice video as always! 31:30 : what about shoving the turn with AQ on 5cQhJh2c to deny him equity with Ax fd or AK? I think with this SPR many players tend to call anyway; and check/fold many rivers when they dont hit, also because this is quite bad spot to bluff shove here because of the ICM.

Sam Grafton 9 years, 1 month ago

I hear you bro. It does seem that with two flush draws out there that we could adjust our strategy and jam turn with our strongest draws and with our most vulnerable made hands that we are felting with anyway.

That said, we can see that the villain did bluff all-in on the river with a hand that only had seven outs on the turn. So that suggests that some of your assumptions are wrong regarding this villain at least. Secondly, as a general rule I try and do very little raising when I am at a range disadvantage. After villain takes such a strong preflop spot, and such a strong post-flop line, we are going to need to keep our strongest bluff-catchers in our range, and our opponent's range as wide as possible, heading to the river - in order to profit with a one pair hand. Additionally, although, jamming with this hand might be a good vacuum play against some villains not having a turn jamming range is going to allow to reach showdown with AJ or KQ.

Overall, you definitely could be right, but this is an outline of my thinking.

Altrerun 9 years ago

Great video!minute 12:00 What do you want to rappresent raising this board? would you raise also the strongest part of your range here? In this way you can stak off some over pair but you loose value from his bluff on the turn expecially if he like to cbet a lot. usually i don t belive when i get raised on this board and i bluff catch a lot.(sorry for my english)

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