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Heads Up Tourney Play (part 2)

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Heads Up Tourney Play (part 2)

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Nick Rampone

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Heads Up Tourney Play (part 2)

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Nick Rampone

POSTED May 15, 2013

Nick returns with another detailed look at HU play, this time from the $55 Turbo 2x Chance Sunday MTT.

Part 1

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Matthew Affleck 11 years, 10 months ago

Great analysis as always Nick. You do a very good job at deciphering ranges in both the videos in this series. Looking forwarded to getting to play HU in some SNGs ad hopefully a MTT or 2  this summer and take these ideas into practice.

Matthew Affleck 11 years, 10 months ago

Also general question in regards to defending the BB to min raises in these spots with a 15-20 bb stack depth. For example in the video the 95s or J6s you folded (but defending Q6s although a little deeper at that point). At what stack depth or what ranges are you defending rather than shoving or folding in theory vs a semi aggressive opponent like you played here where you have post flop edges. 

Nick Rampone 11 years, 10 months ago

Hey buddy! Great to hear from you, and thanks for leaving these comments. I need some revenge from that LAPC sat a couple of years ago! We may as well just up the stakes to WSOP Main haha. I know you have some unfinished business there anyways.

I choose to fold those hands in that situation because I thought that I was making so much more money on the button vs this opponent. Looking back, that's a gross miss-estimation on my part in two ways. First, yes there were some things in his game I could exploit in position, but I think that I significantly overestimated at the time just how much extra EV this would bring me. Especially in a turbo format, where I'll have less time and hands to gather this EV. Second, thinking that this extra EV based on his specific errors is greater than the EV that 95ss and J6ss are going to make getting 3:1 pre, even OOP, is a major faulty assumption by me. Especially since the EV of getting those preflop odds with my equity vs his range, is so defined there. The EV that I'm making on my button, from his mistakes, is totally ambiguous and not able to be specifically quantified. 

If I had my time again, I would defend both of those hands. I also think that any stack size of 15-20bb + should be defended with essentially the same range. Any changes in this range would arise from additions to a 3betting range, not hands that I would fold. The pots I'm getting when he min raises on the button are independent of the stacks sizes. Basically I'll always be getting the right odds, the same odds, regardless of stack depth. My mistake in this video was to ignore this fundamental aspect of poker. As the effective stack depth enters that 15-20 bb range, then we can start making pretty mathematically defined preflop shoves. From here it's just a matter of estimating his range to open, and running the equity of our hand vs that frequency, and seeing what shoves make profit. Of course we can't do this in-game, but having some general idea (as we all do) is what we'll use in the moment. 

This is pretty basic poker advice, disguised as a long winded response! Embrace pot odds and all of the underlying math involved first. From there I do stand by the theory I was operating on in this match: that is that I should tighten my BB defend range in order to maximize higher than average button EV based on opponents errors. I just think I took it too far in this instance. I think a more appropriate manifestation of this idea would be to drop the bottom one or two hands out of your bb defense range, no like an entire 3-5% of it as I seem to have done. The final note it so to take into account the structure of the heads up match. In this turbo format I should have been hesitant to give up any mathematical edge, no matter how slight, because with the relatively small amount of actual hands we figure to play in this match, it become less certain the amount of profitable or very profitable situations I'll be presented.

Cheers buddy! Let me know if you have any follow up on this, would love to keep the talk going.

GregGT 11 years, 10 months ago

Nice series, Nick! :)

17:05, J5o: 

1) lets suppose we get check/shove on this turn, our actions?);

2) same question for check/minraise(not allin) on turn;

3) he leads turn half pot, (we prob call(?), river 2c and he bets half pot again;

4) he leads turn fat (65%+), (we prob call(?), river 2c and he overbet-shoves it.

p.s. love tricky questions :P


Nick Rampone 11 years, 10 months ago

Hey Greg, thanks for watching and for leaving a fun question! 

1. Wow check shove, that would be such a big bet. For the record I don't see him or many players of his skill making a play like that, nor do I think they should be. But he shoves. What beats us? T8, 79, and J9 are most likely, outside chance of J7. Would those hands shove? I would think the two pair hands could decide to shove here because they feel vulnerable on this connected board, so taking the pot down on this street is desirable  At the same time, they have my range crushed now and they know it, so they're happy to get allin. Plus they know their hand looks like a draw if they make this large bet, so they might try to fool me into thinking their hand is in fact a big draw. The thing that gets me here is that he should know I'm betting almost any river. Unless it brings 4 to a straight, I'm confidently value betting good one pairs hands and better, and bluffing tons and tons because his hand looks like a weak one pair a high portion of the time. Because of this, I expect him to check call all of his 2p or better hands on the turn, without fear that he'll lose value because he's certain I'll bet the river. Of course he might not assume that I'm betting the river 100%, and that combined with the above logic I thought he might employ with his two pair hands might be enough to make him miss this or simply choose check shove turn over check/call, check/call. 

All of this is fine and well, but am I calling or folding? I'm folding if he shoves. If he shoves, I think he would have two pair much more often than I would expect (and that I think he should have), and when he doesn't, he still has a ton of equity. The worst draw he could have is K8ss. Plus the only pair+FD he could have is JXss, and that has me crushed. So my equity to get in is pretty awful vs his range. I guess throw in some stone bluff here and there, like K8o or something, and even then, my equity isn't good.

2. Here I would be more worried about two pair or a straight. And he can also have stone bluffs much more often when he does this, so this is much more tricky. He also has the quirk in his game where he is attacking boards almost at random, instead of attacking a board that's bad for my range, or good for his. This board is great for my range and okay for his. I'm not sure that fact means much in this case though, because I don't know if it means anything to him! It's worth noting though. If he CR min on the turn, I don't think he would expect me to fold Ax or anything like that, so I would fold J5 here. I've demonstrated that I'm willing to call him down, so that should do two things to him. First it should consciously make him aware that I'm willing to call down. Secondly it should make him subconsciously a bit more hesitant to construct a major bluff in the near future because he's been negatively reinforced to not get caught bluffing. The best way to not get caught bluffing is to not bluff. Just like you burn your hand on a hot stove. You will be extra careful around that stove in the near future because you have associated touching it with pain. 

Pot odds are fantastic, hand strength is okay, but I'm still folding. I don't see myself being anywhere near ahead of his range when doing this, even when you factor in a few more stone bluff combos like K8o. Be careful here though, if people know you're going to be making this fold often, they're going to be making this bet often! In this case (if he were to CR min on the turn) I would fold because I don't think he would have that read or that assumption about me that I would be folding good one pair hands to him here to that action. 


3. Leads half pot turn. Yes, call here. He's already shown that he will make bets and bluffs that are basically random, and make no sense in the context of the board texture or our ranges. Granted, I would expect him to be bluffing a lot less than usual here.. Mostly because of the hot stove! I think he would also think that I would think he was bluffing since he knows that I already know he's wiling to bluff. And there's enough out there on the board that I will have enough equity to continue a pretty high percentage of the time, as opposed to a 8832 board or something. To clarify, in a vacuum with this hand this board vs a player of these tendencies, I'm calling turn. In the context of this match I'm not nearly as confident, in fact I think it's right on the edge. I'm still calling because there are too many K8ss in his range and I have fair equity. If he bets the river in either of the conditions I just described, I would fold. I don't think that he would think I would fold the river after calling the turn, so that's what I'll do. I also think he's much less likely to be bluffing twice than he is to be bluffing once, on the turn. When all the equity bricks I think he'll just give up a lot. Even if it's not a lot, I he definitely check gives up a non-zero percentage of the time, and I think that percentage is enough to making calling the river -EV. Finally, a lot of the concepts I brought up in answer to "2." are in play here. 


4. Oh maybe a quick answer! We'll see, hah. I don't see this changing much from the previous question. I think it would change his range a little bit though, and I think it would change it to being a bit more value heavy. I just don't see guys taking these really odd lines like that as bluffs. I mean that's a very unique line. The one thing I will say though, is that I'm not sure he would take that line with a bad two pair like 79. I could certainly see him leading the turn with any bet size, but to overbet jam the river, I feel like most players wouldn't do that with a poor two pair. I think the perception is that that would be a semi-thin value bet, and I just don't see many players making thin value bets to a big size. And with that I'm talking in any scenario in poker, but especially the river. From what I'd seen of the guy I would assume that he would be right on the edge of a guy who would overbet allin on the river with 79 here, and with J9. Basically I think he would do so with J9 a lot more than he would with 79 even though they're pretty similar. When he takes this action I think he's got T8 a whole hell of a lot. And I say it's rare, but I mean shoot guys could be bluffing here. They could be bluffing just to bluff, or they could even be bluffing because they're one level ahead of me and they think that I won't think they would bluff this way, so it must be a value bet. Well, so then they bluff because they realize I'll likely think that. Another crucial piece to this hand is that I still don't think this guy would think I would fold. I think he thinks I'm folding Ax less than average, possibly much less than (the) average (player), so he's going to be bluffing less and betting more often and to a bigger size, for value.

Woo! That was a fun one. What a way to warmup for the session haha. Let me know if you have any points of clafiifcation or any follow up questions - I'll check back here soon. Gl! 

Nick Rampone 11 years, 10 months ago

Poker's fun to think about! Honestly you guys are doing a great job of asking stimulating questions that make me think. It's fun for me to think about them and then give you the best answer I can. Plus, it's my job man! Haha. 

Smile 11 years, 10 months ago

Hey Nick!

Couple spots:

18:05 KTo, the plan was to limp/call shove? What if he 3x it? If you wasn't going to call this villain shove, then I don't like it and prefer to openjam 18bb with antes with this hand

23:15 55, well after he stopped shoving to your limps, I feel like he just had somewhat decent hands when he jammed before and is not going to play crazy, so from now on, i wouldn't expect him to jam a lot and think 55 with 10bb must be a jam and not a limp, cuz we give him a free look at the flop with a hand that plays poor post flop. And especially at this point, when gaining a bit of chips and get back to 15-18bb is so important. 

Just for example, as you said you plan to get it in on that flop no matter what ( which I agree with), but let's say if we ran into J2o, or the flop can be 823r and we ran into 84o. This stuff will happen often enough so I wouldn't say we are unlucky if he hits random TP.

28:30 A5, after he start shoving again to limps, I rly like it.

Thanks

Nick Rampone 11 years, 10 months ago

Hey Smile! Thanks for watching and for asking some questions.

KTo. I can't say that I had a direct intention to limp/call a shove here. I mean it's on the very edge equity wise at this stack depth for when I would prefer to do it. I limped this hand just as a part of my broader strategy of limping almost ATC. In doing that I definitely open myself up to some questionable situations that don't usually come up, and can be avoided. I'm okay with that though. As a poker player you should never be afraid to make a decision. That's what we get paid for! Keep in mind there's some other benefits to limping here. Granted I'm not sure they're enough to justify not shoving and taking a bit of clear EV, but here's my thoughts. 1. I get to play KTo post. In position with a hand that dominates his range is good for me. 2.  If he 3x, I will shove here, and he's definitely 3x folding a bit, so I'm making some money there. 3. If I shove, I expose and define my ranges. He now knows that hands like A5, 44, KTo are not in my limping range anymore. He realizes that I'm taking my clear-cut EV preflop with those by shoving. That hurts my overall strategy of limping a balanced, wide range. What do you think about all of that? 

I really like your thoughts about limping and his changing frequencies throughout the match. I just sat back and thought about the way the match played and what you noticed is totally true. He does seem to shift his tendencies. And I agree with you about the 55. That's taking my game plan too far, and being too stubborn to deviate. I mean that stack depth is so dangerously low, with me at 10 bb, that I just need to take that pot and make a lot of clear money preflop with a simple shove. I mean if I have QQ, that's a different story, but like you said, 55 is so vulnerable post that it just makes much more sense to shove essentially "risk free" knowing that I cannot be exploited for my play and that it makes definite money.

Thanks for watching carefully and leaving this thoughtful comment, I enjoyed thinking through this one. Cheers and gl. 

Smile 11 years, 10 months ago

Hi Nick. 

Thank you for your detailed response, appreciate it. 

I definetely agree with your points about KTo hand. I like your thought about defining range if shove here and opponent can realise that our limping range is weaker. Although i think it's it's more important in HU sng or vs regs in a HU of an mtt, where the probability you play with them more is high.

I enjoy your videos, keep it going and good luck at the tables man! =)

Nick Rampone 11 years, 10 months ago

Awesome man, I'm glad you got something out of my response. I do think that "bigger picture" kind of argument in the KTo hand is an important piece of that hand. I agree with you that it's more important in a HU SNG type of situation, but even in this HU MTT situation, even one lone hand like this will expose our range to. All he needs to see is one shove before he can realize that "ahhh, he has a limp range AND a shove range at this stack depth. I'll have to keep a close eye on his stack depth and estimate what depths  he'll shove what hands" And that's a pretty easy thing to estimate, because he can pretty safely assume I'm shoving the vulnerable hands like 44 A5o and KT. 

ShovingHereIsOK 11 years, 2 months ago

Hey, Nick, I have a question. At the begining he shoves with like 15 BB and you fold pocket 2s. You had like 40 BB why did you fold ?

Nick Rampone 11 years, 2 months ago

Hey, good to see you here again! In the future could you please include a timestamp with your question? "Why did you fold 22 @ minute 12:00 of the video?". It just makes it a little bit easier to find the hand in question. 

Villain actually had 16.15 BB in this hand. It's a small difference, sure, but it can make an important difference. I folded because at the time I felt like this hand is right on the border of being profitable, and I wasn't certain that it was in fact profitable. Now I have a better understanding of the math in these spots, and it's definitely profitable to call here, at 16bb, and I should have called. I would call in this same situation today. 

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