Good stuff, Nick. Always nice to crack open the realities of the game and the grind. More things we all need to see and hear, esp those still at the beginning like myself.
Maddsoul, thanks for the feedback here. It's nice to know that people are getting something out of a video topic like this. Here's to your progression through the ranks! Feel free to ask any questions that this video sparked for you, or down the road if something is on lingering on your mind. GL.
What kind of downswings are normal for a mtt reg? I see some guys have multiple losing months in a row and in cash games that is much more rare if you play your normal games. Tournaments are very exciting deep and at final tables, but bricking 15-20 tourneys on a Sunday can be pretty brutal. Dropping the number of tables has definitely helped me.
Hello Everytime. This is the best resource to help one understand the variance involved in MTT. Here is a follow-up post to that first link. He has other entries in his blog for other formats of NL; STT, cash, etc. I haven't read those posts yet though.
In short, yes it's more than possible for a good player to have multiple consecutive losing months. One interesting point from those blog posts is that some players with a positive ROI actually are favorites to lose on any one given Sunday because of variance. Crazy. Dropping tables is good in the sense that your ROI on each of the other tables should be a bit higher, since you're making better decisions on each of them. At least in theory.
You should have more attention and focus on each of those tables, and that should lead to you gathering more information, which should lead to better decisions. However, cutting tables also reduces your volume, which is your main weapon against variance. I spent 3 months last year playing 5-6 days a week, long session, but only capping out on 8-10 tables at a time. Since then, I've made it a goal to be able to play more tables effectively. I'm consciously emphasizing this because I want to increase my volume to reduce variance. I also want to improve faster, and I think making more decisions is a good way to do that. Of course, if I'm not able to keep up with the table load, none of these benefits will materialize, and I'll actually be costing myself significant EV.
I would say the top players in HSMTT can have a 100% ROI. This is like 10 people though. More could achieve that ROI, but they're playing cash games or high rollers. The ROI one can expect for themselves depends significantly on their skill and also their ABI. Just understand that there is a lot of variability in what one can do to design their schedule, and that is ultimately going to have a major bearing on their ROI.
Here is a calculator you can play with (I just stumbled on it while searching for links, looks good on a quick glance but I'm not certain). This thread has some interesting and even good anecdotal information and is good food for thought. One last thread. There is a bunch of information on this stuff on the forums. If you look hard enough, you can answer all of your questions about this topic. I'm happy to help answer questions you've got here a well.
I appreciate that man! Thanks for watching. I've caught a couple of your live Sunday series and enjoyed them. That's a neat niche you've got there, recording the biggest day of the week. Cheers and GL.
Haha. Yeah this hand was a bit.. adventurous. I'm making a lot of assumptions that have to be right. One of them is that he doesn't have much 9x in his flatting range preflop. A9s and T9s jump out as pretty much for sure hands he'll have here, but what about J9s or Q9s? They would likely be in my flatting range, but I'm not sure about his. The more 9x combos he can have, the (much) worse my call is. Really what it comes down to here is that I could count every single combination of hand he could have here, both for value and for bluffs. Then I simply see how many there are of each, weigh that against the approximate 2:1 pot odds I'm getting, and call or fold. I could estimate a very favorable or best case scenario for myself, and a worst case scenario just to see the parameters of this situations. For example, in the worse case scenario I could say he's flatting as wide as 96s for example. That way he has so many combos of 9x that it's going to make this an awful call by me.
Hey Sirocko, good to see you here. I've recognized your name for quite some time now. I remember playing with you over the past 6 months in some FTP satellites on Sundays. You do a good job of identifying my ranges and playing yours accordingly.
I hope this graph is useful to you. It will show you how much of what buyin I've played over the past year or so. The 2nd graph is your typical profit graph.
And one final point of comparison: September 2012 (Wcoop) my ABI was $45 (ouch). I played 564 games that month. September 2013 I played 829 games at a $165 ABI. Clearly I moved up over the course of that year. I played an ABI of about $45 through the end of 2012. Then in January of 2013 I had a $75k score in the Million. That's reflected very clearly in my graph :D As you know, one can reduce variance a lot by lowering their ABI and the type of MTT they play. In 2012, my bankroll could not sustain much variance or a high ABI, so I played small to protect myself, and on my own in case I had a big score. That way if I did have such a score, my bankroll would be in a place to let me play a much higher ABI, one that I feel comfortable playing from an ability/skill standpoint.
Really original idea and thx for showing those standard bust out races ; it is always refreshing to be reminded of the variance of those flips and how to let go of the results.
Hello Phil! This will vary quite a bit depending on a few things - one's ABI, one's skill, and one's results (as they relate to variance and plain 'ol luck!). Mine isn't useful to anyone, because it is skewed by a big score. This might make a good topic for a post in the forums as well.
really nice vid. I m struggling a lot by myself in this kind of Situation where i know 90% of the time that im behind but im still gambling, especially in downswings....whatever im allin, i call this...
I found it very helpful, keeping track of the bust out chart you present early in the video. Much room for improvement / reviewing and discussing bust out hands further more. Any suggestion about keeping more data in some extra column, like for example 3bet% or some other stat that you like to improve ..?
thank you very much. great video. I really like your approach to vids. I managed to take my bank roll from $1.60 ---> $3.09 while watching 2 of your vids... soo if any illigitiment kids show up this week on my doorstep im giving you first dibs on God Father!, or sell him to you cheap!
Its the least I could do.
cheers.
Thank you for making this video. I am looking forward to decreasing my tables and then organizing all my bustout hands in that easy excel format you use. I have always had too many categories when I try and log them into excel and lose interest after busting too many and tilting etc. less tournaments will help that along with less categories. Thanks.
love ur vid,and i have a question, an open and a 3bet otb and u shove with 8Ts in the BB with no blocker an ACE or a K , do you think it's kind of a little loose?
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Good stuff, Nick. Always nice to crack open the realities of the game and the grind. More things we all need to see and hear, esp those still at the beginning like myself.
Maddsoul, thanks for the feedback here. It's nice to know that people are getting something out of a video topic like this. Here's to your progression through the ranks! Feel free to ask any questions that this video sparked for you, or down the road if something is on lingering on your mind. GL.
Here is a link to the thread that got the ball rolling on this idea:
http://www.runitonce.com/chatter/video-suggestion-for-pros/
What kind of downswings are normal for a mtt reg? I see some guys have multiple losing months in a row and in cash games that is much more rare if you play your normal games. Tournaments are very exciting deep and at final tables, but bricking 15-20 tourneys on a Sunday can be pretty brutal. Dropping the number of tables has definitely helped me.
Also what kind of ROI can you expect. I see guys with close to 100%, but usually they have a huge score in a tourney above their AVG. Buyin.
Hello Everytime. This is the best resource to help one understand the variance involved in MTT. Here is a follow-up post to that first link. He has other entries in his blog for other formats of NL; STT, cash, etc. I haven't read those posts yet though.
In short, yes it's more than possible for a good player to have multiple consecutive losing months. One interesting point from those blog posts is that some players with a positive ROI actually are favorites to lose on any one given Sunday because of variance. Crazy. Dropping tables is good in the sense that your ROI on each of the other tables should be a bit higher, since you're making better decisions on each of them. At least in theory.
You should have more attention and focus on each of those tables, and that should lead to you gathering more information, which should lead to better decisions. However, cutting tables also reduces your volume, which is your main weapon against variance. I spent 3 months last year playing 5-6 days a week, long session, but only capping out on 8-10 tables at a time. Since then, I've made it a goal to be able to play more tables effectively. I'm consciously emphasizing this because I want to increase my volume to reduce variance. I also want to improve faster, and I think making more decisions is a good way to do that. Of course, if I'm not able to keep up with the table load, none of these benefits will materialize, and I'll actually be costing myself significant EV.
I would say the top players in HSMTT can have a 100% ROI. This is like 10 people though. More could achieve that ROI, but they're playing cash games or high rollers. The ROI one can expect for themselves depends significantly on their skill and also their ABI. Just understand that there is a lot of variability in what one can do to design their schedule, and that is ultimately going to have a major bearing on their ROI.
Here is a calculator you can play with (I just stumbled on it while searching for links, looks good on a quick glance but I'm not certain). This thread has some interesting and even good anecdotal information and is good food for thought. One last thread. There is a bunch of information on this stuff on the forums. If you look hard enough, you can answer all of your questions about this topic. I'm happy to help answer questions you've got here a well.
hey nick, loved it! gonna go watch your making it as a pro vid too
I appreciate that man! Thanks for watching. I've caught a couple of your live Sunday series and enjoyed them. That's a neat niche you've got there, recording the biggest day of the week. Cheers and GL.
loved the video, cant wrap my head around the KQ< 9 10 HH hand though, :)
At the least, I would think his trying to blow me off a chopped pot on the river , goes to show there is alot more theory out there to be discovered !
Haha. Yeah this hand was a bit.. adventurous. I'm making a lot of assumptions that have to be right. One of them is that he doesn't have much 9x in his flatting range preflop. A9s and T9s jump out as pretty much for sure hands he'll have here, but what about J9s or Q9s? They would likely be in my flatting range, but I'm not sure about his. The more 9x combos he can have, the (much) worse my call is. Really what it comes down to here is that I could count every single combination of hand he could have here, both for value and for bluffs. Then I simply see how many there are of each, weigh that against the approximate 2:1 pot odds I'm getting, and call or fold. I could estimate a very favorable or best case scenario for myself, and a worst case scenario just to see the parameters of this situations. For example, in the worse case scenario I could say he's flatting as wide as 96s for example. That way he has so many combos of 9x that it's going to make this an awful call by me.
Nice video, interesting topic. Would like to see some graph, BuyIn-wise to get a feel for ups & downs for a full-time MTT grinder
Hey Sirocko, good to see you here. I've recognized your name for quite some time now. I remember playing with you over the past 6 months in some FTP satellites on Sundays. You do a good job of identifying my ranges and playing yours accordingly.
I hope this graph is useful to you. It will show you how much of what buyin I've played over the past year or so. The 2nd graph is your typical profit graph.

And one final point of comparison: September 2012 (Wcoop) my ABI was $45 (ouch). I played 564 games that month. September 2013 I played 829 games at a $165 ABI. Clearly I moved up over the course of that year. I played an ABI of about $45 through the end of 2012. Then in January of 2013 I had a $75k score in the Million. That's reflected very clearly in my graph :D As you know, one can reduce variance a lot by lowering their ABI and the type of MTT they play. In 2012, my bankroll could not sustain much variance or a high ABI, so I played small to protect myself, and on my own in case I had a big score. That way if I did have such a score, my bankroll would be in a place to let me play a much higher ABI, one that I feel comfortable playing from an ability/skill standpoint.Hope this helps and GL.
Really original idea and thx for showing those standard bust out races ; it is always refreshing to be reminded of the variance of those flips and how to let go of the results.
Hello Jean-Serge. Thanks for the feedback! I'm glad this idea is hitting home with several of you subscribers.
Hey I'm just wondering what's the avg hourly rate as a mtt pro =)
Hello Phil! This will vary quite a bit depending on a few things - one's ABI, one's skill, and one's results (as they relate to variance and plain 'ol luck!). Mine isn't useful to anyone, because it is skewed by a big score. This might make a good topic for a post in the forums as well.
really nice vid. I m struggling a lot by myself in this kind of Situation where i know 90% of the time that im behind but im still gambling, especially in downswings....whatever im allin, i call this...
I found it very helpful, keeping track of the bust out chart you present early in the video. Much room for improvement / reviewing and discussing bust out hands further more. Any suggestion about keeping more data in some extra column, like for example 3bet% or some other stat that you like to improve ..?
thank you very much. great video. I really like your approach to vids. I managed to take my bank roll from $1.60 ---> $3.09 while watching 2 of your vids... soo if any illigitiment kids show up this week on my doorstep im giving you first dibs on God Father!, or sell him to you cheap!
Its the least I could do.
cheers.
Thank you for making this video. I am looking forward to decreasing my tables and then organizing all my bustout hands in that easy excel format you use. I have always had too many categories when I try and log them into excel and lose interest after busting too many and tilting etc. less tournaments will help that along with less categories. Thanks.
love ur vid,and i have a question, an open and a 3bet otb and u shove with 8Ts in the BB with no blocker an ACE or a K , do you think it's kind of a little loose?
Looks like we have got ourselves a troll.
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