This format is just awesome. Keep this coming Nick.
I am working a bit on thin (or most people say extremely thin) value bets situations specially because playing in 20bb games each thin situation makes a huge difference.
(some hypothesis here, player is an unknown and we are not facing him again and if we face we will use a different strategy)
27:39 you didn't talk much about the bvb spot 74s on T64. I think we can exploit this amazing rundown (undercard to the board and paired top pair) by betting 74 small OTR (I know we are outkicked sometimes, also but he has very few 4x). I think that if we are not doing it after we bet such a weak hand OTF (it is ok to protect our hand in a spot that villain is probably capped) we are sacrificing a bit of the EV in the whole hand. Villain's range doesn't have that many 6x and those that he has is probably suited so he has much more Ax/KQ offsuit combos here that incentive me to bet small OTR to make him indifferent from folding with a large chunk of his range that contains A9, for example. I see this spots in which both ranges are capped to the river (he can't pretty much x/r us here) this small thin value bets tend to work better.
I am sorry if this doesn't apply to this 100bb games and would like to hear something from you.
Nick Howard10 years, 6 months agoi am definitely on board with that reasoning in practice. only thing i would say is that we are so capped ourselves when we reopen river in that line that (maybe) villain gains enough EV back from being able to CR a hand like 77 or A6 OTR ... that it may deincentivize us from reopening the betting this weak. But i dont see this as a threat unless we have a ton of history + villain is very smart, so small bet looks like it should give us some extra EV. Mayb we could find a balance by checking back some hands like 88/weak TP ott, to protect the river reopening range.
yeah, for sure the best counter strategy is to x/r some rivers but this one specially I think he can't (obv we are not facing the best runout ever 100% of the time) represent much.. even tough 77 is an amazing hand to do it if he knows that we are betting so thin.
I made this x/r with 64 on A4xssKxs OTR and got called by JJ... so I think few people also recognize that their thin value bets are getting x/r a good portion of the time also and start calling me lighter. Reopening the betting with ranges so capped is certainly something tricky but it puts a reasonable doubt on people's mind when betting this thin some rivers and I've been called a lot on it.
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Nice video!
What is the equity program you are using in this vid?
It comes from HUNL Tipton's work. Direct link EDvis download (only works on windows)
This format is just awesome. Keep this coming Nick.
I am working a bit on thin (or most people say extremely thin) value bets situations specially because playing in 20bb games each thin situation makes a huge difference.
(some hypothesis here, player is an unknown and we are not facing him again and if we face we will use a different strategy)
27:39 you didn't talk much about the bvb spot 74s on T64. I think we can exploit this amazing rundown (undercard to the board and paired top pair) by betting 74 small OTR (I know we are outkicked sometimes, also but he has very few 4x). I think that if we are not doing it after we bet such a weak hand OTF (it is ok to protect our hand in a spot that villain is probably capped) we are sacrificing a bit of the EV in the whole hand. Villain's range doesn't have that many 6x and those that he has is probably suited so he has much more Ax/KQ offsuit combos here that incentive me to bet small OTR to make him indifferent from folding with a large chunk of his range that contains A9, for example. I see this spots in which both ranges are capped to the river (he can't pretty much x/r us here) this small thin value bets tend to work better.
I am sorry if this doesn't apply to this 100bb games and would like to hear something from you.
yeah, for sure the best counter strategy is to x/r some rivers but this one specially I think he can't (obv we are not facing the best runout ever 100% of the time) represent much.. even tough 77 is an amazing hand to do it if he knows that we are betting so thin.
I made this x/r with 64 on A4xssKxs OTR and got called by JJ... so I think few people also recognize that their thin value bets are getting x/r a good portion of the time also and start calling me lighter. Reopening the betting with ranges so capped is certainly something tricky but it puts a reasonable doubt on people's mind when betting this thin some rivers and I've been called a lot on it.
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