I have a question about the TT hand at the end of the video. Is it possible to illustrate that concept of how getting AsQ to call or fold will effect our EV with a simple toy game? I'm not sure I fully understood that explanation in the video. I would have thought that since poker is a zero sum game(before rake) that if AsQ's EV of call or fold was equal, that would also have an equally equivalent effect on our EV, but it sounds like I'm misunderstanding or misapplying something since you appear to be favoring getting it to fold.

Great video overall, I enjoyed it.

Thanks jd.

I used AsQ as an example of hand that would be close to indifferent when we jam. The point of the example was just to illustrate that gauging your decision to jam strictly on your equity when called is the wrong approach when a high fraction of villains range is drawing very live vs your hand. If its easier, think of it as value-betting vs a draw. In an extreme situation where villain held 100% FD+overcards, it would be very hard to devise a strategy for villain OTR that would not incentivize us to just be jamming turn with a pair.

in less extreme spots like the hand in question it could still be correct to jam with say 40% equity when called , assuming villain is folding out a significant amount of drawing equity.

dark jacks, lol

Nick,
The best part of the video was @ 21 minutes in when you talked about the difference in mindset between average players who call too much on the river and justify it by not being able to fold given the opponent might be bluffing. I really liked that. With that said, question on the JJ hand.

When you 4bet JJ and cbet 779hhx. Aren't there just a ton of draws and floats we are pushing off their equity by shipping the turn? I imagine a good % of the time he's shipping AA/KK pre in these positions (your games prob play diff than mine), which really only leaves QQ/99 that have us beat. Also, Wouldn't you think he would be betting QQ on that turn card as well? His line really doesn't make a ton of sense (to me).

The main part I wanted to ask you was, when you bet flop and check it down, don't you think it gives villain incentive to bluff and changes his range quite a bit? I feel like someones range changes a lot when you bet/bet/bet or bet/bet/check as opposed to cbetting the flop and it checking down.

Thanks!

I spent a good deal of time talking to a friend about that hand the other day. I think it's probably the toughest hand in the video. here are more of my thoughts on it:

-my river X/F was purely exploitative, based on the fact that i believe IP should likely be balancing some AQ/AK as bluffs on this river, and i dont think that happens often enough in practice in this line.

-I find it very hard to give a good estimate for villain's call 4-bet range without a lot of player specific info. I could devise a range for him that JJ does well to jam turn against, and i could also devise one that would make jamming JJ a huge overplay. That being said, checking JJ is likely not a very big mistake even vs the preferred (weaker) villain range, so it seemed like checking stands the best chance at being a higher EV play vs the assortment of strategies villain might actually be playing.

-if villain bets turn, i'm X/C'ing. If he follows thru OTR, i'm probably going to X/F exploitatively for the same reasons i listed earlier -- i just think people won't barrel aggressively enough with hands like AQ/AK to give me incentive to call. That being said, if i'm making an effort to play more balanced, i probably have to felt it on most rivers.
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Very nice video. A lot of tough close spots and bad turn/river cards.
I feel like there is this dark atmosphere in 4-bet pots. Either our bluff works and we win a small pot and forget about quickly. Or then our bluff gets called, or we're behind and we lose much bigger pot. It's also hard to figure out the optimal plays, so sometimes you just have to go with what is +EV play. If we're wrong we can lose entire stack. With small SPR it's also much worse when scare card hits, i.e Qx.
I think those tough close spots are a great test of discipline for a player.
35:40 Do you think we can all AJ occasionally, because we could be ahead of draws? Of course AK is preferred over AJ tho.