$10,000 Party 20M Guaranteed: We're In the Money
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Hi Mathias, thanks for this one, and for this series ! I learned a lot by watching your videos.
9:00 I really like to raise aggro here but i dont like your combo a lot. Against ovp you basically have more ev to raise with a hand like 33. Same number of out agaisnt ovp (your 87s is counterfeited if a 7 comes) and if you hit a 3 , it will be easier for vilain to call you than if an 8 comes ott or otr. But because of BTn player who call, I think its better to have a removal on his 8x rather than random raise 33-44, so raising small pp might not be a thing.
Also, hands like 56 67s has 4 outs to the nuts.
So, raising seems good with 87s ; im just trying to reflect on which combo of non 4x is the best to raise here, these multiways spots are not so easy.
What is your thought on this point ?
28:12 What do you think of having a small raising range here with some 5x Qx and other stuff ?
if you bet 5.7M you just put 3.7M more and you put IP and OOP in a very tough spot on flop + they have to play passivly on most turn and river run out.
Ip should play very tight , and if OOP calls , your EQR goes up and so your ev has well.
42:34 Im not an expert of these stack sizes, but I really prefere to raise 84s here, and xcall some 87s 89s etc.. I dont know if tis a mistake at these stack sizes, but by raising you make fold a ton of better hands and still have 34_36% equity vs OVP, and xc xf this hands.
Its close on the turn facing a 3/4 bet, but it is really an easy fold?
In cashgame these kinds of hand (fd+over+gutter) even agaisnt a strong EP range are raising near 100%, because ev raise is better than ev call, you will be playing an ovb OTT most of the time. It might be the same thing at this stacks depth, because we can call if vilain 3b jam the flop ?
Are you agree with this ?
50:00
KT is one of your worst Kx on the river, you can even considering a fold on the turn imo.
T is not clean and it block all his QT JT region.
Also, even K3s_ K8s are better bluffcatcher. I dont think he is valuing KT this way.
It should also depend vilain s level of thinking process. Does he gonna X with his QJ QT because he is thinking he has to much sdv against some JT 45s 46s , or does he just bluff all the time his 48combos of QT JT QJ ? And in this case call print money here.
Not an easy one, I like the fold river, and actually I think its just a clear call turn, but how far are we allowed to fold on these ICM spots ?
My english is still improving ;)
Cheers.
thanks man and i appreciate your thoughts on these spots you pointed out.
9:00 Since this is a multi way spot and i havent worked with monker yet on these I cant give you an answer from a game theory point of view but only my own logic. I think gutshots are going to be raised for sure at some frequency, and I like your idea with the pairs actually, maybe they do go into raising range at a smaller frequency too here (i wouldnt think at high frequency), I mean they can bluff out some 55, 66, 77 and some of buttons 8x on turns, fold out all kinds of equity right away (overcards with backdoors basically), and yes as you mentioned they have two outs to the nuts too. 8x I still think can be in here but its not really a bluff, i mean sometimes maybe will become one but mostly we are protecting equity on the flop i would say.
And since we are not super deep here, Im thinking its important to have those immediate outs for the turn, so something like 97ss im not sure sure if that should be used here much, I would think more so when we are much deeper effectively.
28:12: yep raising range with those hands seems good to me, but thinking we still have to do some mixing calls and raises but again its a multi way spot so i cant give you a game theoretical answer here
so for 42:34 and our 84dd im running a CEV sim on this one using 30bb preflop cev ranges from monker and putting them into pio, to give us a good idea here because im simply not sure if we want to always call or raise this exact hand or mix as i said in the video:
So we do mostly end up calling here vs a small cbet with our particular combo, only 6% of raises. We actually more so checkraise 84ss 84cc like around 50% (makes sense, doesnt mind getting pushed out its equity as much). At this point of the tournament there are also some icm implications, I believe they make us call even more so then if its already mostly a call under CEV circumstances in theory. Truth is though ev is basically the same either way, but still I think we should end up mostly calling now seeing this.
50:00: yep I think also lower kings would definitely be better here to call. On average im thinking fold will be best here and true turn isnt clear cut either, but the better the player i think the more we want to call at least one more street for sure.
Hi Mathias, at 10min 87cc hand, you say at one point it's better to call river with higher 8x such as K8 or A8, but would these not represent blockers to some of his bluffs as well as value on river? AA/KK/AK/KQ combos? Would it not make more sense to randomise based on whether your kicker is a club? As it's perhaps more likely they continue barreling off when they turn a FD? So 87hh would make a better bluff catcher than 87cc as conceivably opponent could barrel 76cc/A7cc for 3 streets here.
Hey man, I’m not sure how the theory works out here having started 3way, but I’d assume he should not barrel so many clubs like I feel like he wants to unblock gutshots plus flushdraw Type hands as well as maybe 8xcc. But idk here for sure. However it’s probably true that any 8x calls here at some frequency and kicker isn’t so important I can see that
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