Hey Luke great job!
30:20 when said that you don’t like 53s 3bet BB vs CO mainly because unknown/bad regs doesn’t fold enough to 3bets, would you keep your frequencies but 3bet more linear like SB 3bet ranges or you would reduce your frequencies to only the stronger hands?
Thanks!
Yes I'm keen to know this too. I 3bet linear vs recs, with strong hands only, but I can never work out the borderline for which hands are strong enough to 3bet, so I end up with a low 3bet percentage. Could you give some of the threshold hands here for which you would 3bet vs a rec?
This hand was pretty interesting. You were surprised that BB didn't get to range bet the turn after raising the flop. In my sim, SB actually has a small donking frequency here (although we have different preflop ranges of course). I think that the big raise size causes BB to be flush-draw heavy in its bluffs, but also makes SB call mainly the stronger draws too, so that the spade turn brings a lot of flushes for SB too. SB also didn't have to defend flop especially light given the big raise size too. So on the turn BOTH players should have pretty strong ranges here, with both having similar amounts of flushes.
Its also worth mentioning that if BB turns out to be a fish rather than fishreg, you should not even consider folding. Recreational players will over-bluff this line by a MASSIVE amount. I did some research on this exact line and the results were pretty mind blowing.
Custom Ai Wizard link for exact bet size, pot size, and stack sizes in game. I never thought BvB would ever fold a flush, but only mandatory call AXs KXs+
Also Luke Johnson Idk the exact time stamp for this hand, but you mentioned wizard was calling J6s and your sim was 3 betting at some frequency, so you went with your PIO sim. In this custom Ai sim, wizard is 3 betting J6s on the flop about 30% of the time.
One last note JTo was close to a pure check back on the turn for this custom Ai, but J9o is barreling off, so it can't be too bad.
One last note JTo was close to a pure check back on the turn for this custom Ai, but J9o is barreling off, so it can't be too bad.
Interesting that the J9 bets and the JT checks here. I guess the JT folds more equity if it gets raised, plus it blocks more of the folding hands from SB like AT, JT, TT
Really interesting analysis on this hand here where you point out how easy the turn defence is for BB facing the overbet. I will try to find more spots like this when analysing hands. Is this spot easy to defend because:
1. A high board brings many top pairs for BB
2. 2 tone turn brings many nut draws
So then the BB can just fold naked pairs that are 2nd pair or worse?
I'm looking at a 3-broadway board of KcQdTd6c and again it's pretty easy for BB to defend on. A meaty board with lots of pairs and high equity draws for BB. Interestingly the solver will still bet some mergey hands on the turn, expecting BB to fold hands like naked top pair. Do you think this is unrealistic in reality and people will call too much of this type of hand?
Another mergey play the solver made was with the 33 in your hand on the A82, it was almost pure overbetting turn, expecting BB to fold some top pair, all naked pairs worse than top pair, whilst calling some hands the 33 beats like KX flush draws. Do you think that 33 is better in reality as a check due to BB likely over-calling (e.g. QX, 8X)?
Luke,
Nice video. The J6ss hand was pretty interesting for multiple reasons (the disconnect added some suspense to it). I agree with RunItTw1ce in that I would not think that J6ss would be folding in this configuration (seems too strong a hand too fold) especially if we are unsure if our opponent is over bluffing this spot. Also shows how two solvers can have different ways of getting to river at equilibrium.
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Hey Luke great job!
30:20 when said that you don’t like 53s 3bet BB vs CO mainly because unknown/bad regs doesn’t fold enough to 3bets, would you keep your frequencies but 3bet more linear like SB 3bet ranges or you would reduce your frequencies to only the stronger hands?
Thanks!
Yes I'm keen to know this too. I 3bet linear vs recs, with strong hands only, but I can never work out the borderline for which hands are strong enough to 3bet, so I end up with a low 3bet percentage. Could you give some of the threshold hands here for which you would 3bet vs a rec?
This hand was pretty interesting. You were surprised that BB didn't get to range bet the turn after raising the flop. In my sim, SB actually has a small donking frequency here (although we have different preflop ranges of course). I think that the big raise size causes BB to be flush-draw heavy in its bluffs, but also makes SB call mainly the stronger draws too, so that the spade turn brings a lot of flushes for SB too. SB also didn't have to defend flop especially light given the big raise size too. So on the turn BOTH players should have pretty strong ranges here, with both having similar amounts of flushes.
Its also worth mentioning that if BB turns out to be a fish rather than fishreg, you should not even consider folding. Recreational players will over-bluff this line by a MASSIVE amount. I did some research on this exact line and the results were pretty mind blowing.
Custom Ai Wizard link for exact bet size, pot size, and stack sizes in game. I never thought BvB would ever fold a flush, but only mandatory call AXs KXs+
Also Luke Johnson Idk the exact time stamp for this hand, but you mentioned wizard was calling J6s and your sim was 3 betting at some frequency, so you went with your PIO sim. In this custom Ai sim, wizard is 3 betting J6s on the flop about 30% of the time.
One last note JTo was close to a pure check back on the turn for this custom Ai, but J9o is barreling off, so it can't be too bad.
SB Cb 28% (1.21)
BB raises 111% (8.7)
SB calls.
Turn
BB cb 70% (15.33)
SB XC.
River
BB shoves 141% (73.72)
SB calls. 0EV.
Interesting that the J9 bets and the JT checks here. I guess the JT folds more equity if it gets raised, plus it blocks more of the folding hands from SB like AT, JT, TT
Really interesting analysis on this hand here where you point out how easy the turn defence is for BB facing the overbet. I will try to find more spots like this when analysing hands. Is this spot easy to defend because:
1. A high board brings many top pairs for BB
2. 2 tone turn brings many nut draws
So then the BB can just fold naked pairs that are 2nd pair or worse?
I'm looking at a 3-broadway board of KcQdTd6c and again it's pretty easy for BB to defend on. A meaty board with lots of pairs and high equity draws for BB. Interestingly the solver will still bet some mergey hands on the turn, expecting BB to fold hands like naked top pair. Do you think this is unrealistic in reality and people will call too much of this type of hand?
Another mergey play the solver made was with the 33 in your hand on the A82, it was almost pure overbetting turn, expecting BB to fold some top pair, all naked pairs worse than top pair, whilst calling some hands the 33 beats like KX flush draws. Do you think that 33 is better in reality as a check due to BB likely over-calling (e.g. QX, 8X)?
Luke,
Nice video. The J6ss hand was pretty interesting for multiple reasons (the disconnect added some suspense to it). I agree with RunItTw1ce in that I would not think that J6ss would be folding in this configuration (seems too strong a hand too fold) especially if we are unsure if our opponent is over bluffing this spot. Also shows how two solvers can have different ways of getting to river at equilibrium.
Thanks Luke
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