$500/$1,000: My How Things Have Changed
Posted by Luke Johnson
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Hey Luke love the video! Thanks!
Hey TRUEPOWER thanks a lot mate, glad you enjoyed :)
Haha let’s just get it in LOL
Like your analysis in prefer if Tom just flat this big size here as well.
Yep
He is of course supposed to be super aggressive in these games, so fastplaying the effective nuts can never be too, too bad.
Yeah everything about this hand just seems loosey goosey. Maybe elky feels like dwan is weak but even still.
Agreed. It is easy for us to comment without reads, but generally speaking this is OOL from Elky
29:45 when Phil folds K83-8-K board with 87. It reminds me of what he said in his Venividi challenge about trying to play solver-esk in the beginning, then he went back to his original style of just trying to hand read and not play like the solver. This is when he made the big comeback. I think this K83 board when he calls a PSB on the flop MW, it's just Phil playing a bit of bingo and keeping Dnegs honest. But he is just going with the read that Dnegs doesn't play pot-X-pot without a king here because if Phil called the flop, he must have at least a King or an 8 with no flush draw present. Would be very unwise to try and bluff someone off a full house, so I like Phil's fold.
There are going to be some other hands in Phil's defend OTF, like AQ AJbdfd, A3bdfd, perhaps T9bdfd. But yes, his range is most certainly strong
Luke Johnson Do we really defend these hands vs a PSB on the flop?
21:45 Dnegs bets 26k 3-way. If 8x is folding, then I don't think these back doors should continue vs a PSB.
Yes. Strong draws and definitely superior than naked 8x
Luke Johnson
I put this into wizard and you can see in the screen shot bdfd that do not contain a pair on the flop are just folding unless its ATs-AQs. All the QJs JTs 76s hands are just folding. I used 4x open using wizard and put a wider BB range since Galfond was defending 87o. If these hands are folding HU then they surely are folding MW. I think the big difference with this hand is that Galfond is OOP in the straddle ($2k). I did use 200bb ranges though, I am not sure how deep they were. I thought at 200bb they might float a little wider vs a PSB with a higher SPR.
But I don't think this is correct. We are just handcuffed to continue 8x, Kx, and 1 over + BDFD + BDSD as the bottom of our range.
RunItTw1ce Ah sorry, when reviewing your comment I misremembered the action preflop and had Galfond as IP OTF. Yes, folding the non premium BDFDs now.
Being deeper will definitely help BDFD's case and hurt 87o's case. This is accentuated when IP as we'll get to realise our robust equity more often. At 100bb I'd fold BDFDs and likely still fold 87o. Theory returns from GTOw not ideal here when in reality a PSB MW is going to be extremely equity driven.
Luke,
The first hand where Elezra has QQ on 973 rainbow and bets on the larger side into basically the entire table then faces a raise from Dwan next to act, seems like a spot that you do not want to 3 bet. Dwan is raising with half the table behind him, sure he can have draws but those draws have decent equity and your hand doesn't do well verses value. Curious what you think about his decision to fold to the jam after putting in what appeared to be half his stack. Does he think Dwan just never bluff jams this spot? Not sure why he 3 bets this spot and what does he do if Dwan just calls 3 bet and turn is a blank?
Thanks Luke.
777TripSevens777 later in the video you can hear them talking about this hand where Dwan said "how can you fold? It's only $250 more." Eli said something about if he calls then he probably calls down. So Eli used his flop 3bet as information that Dwan is never shoving worse. Eli didn't trust himself to fold later streets.
777TripSevens777 Yeah, I am not a fan of the 3b-fold either. Either flat the raise or 3b-gii. I'd prefer to just flat the 2b. Of course if I gave Dwan no bluffs we can outright fold.
If Dwan flats the 3b and turn blanks, we can still presumably vbet for b40 or so
RunItTw1ce Oh, nice note, thanks. 3betting "for information" isn't the worst play, but this tends to be more advisable vs nittier types who YOU KNOW aren't going to aggress with worse post your aggression. Vs aggro guys, though, you're still in the dark... so still not a fan of the 3b-fold here. Seems like a more astute play vs DNegs
These are fun reviews to watch.
16:20 I'm not sure what the exact spr was, but if it was 1 do we want to have a non all in bet size as dwan? Possibly with nutted draws to keep in worse or thinner value with 8x hands?
Thanks!
Yep. Something like b40 and AI seems good. With hands that lock down the board (AQss, QQ) we can size down, and with hands like QJcc KQcc we can shove. I wouldn't have any checks.
At 6:30, do you prefer a small bet or check in Eli's shoes?
Hey FIVEbetbLUFF
If I had to choose one or the other, I'd prefer a bet with QQ and a check with AA. However, I am more inclined to bet T9s with a BDFD, as it is more resistant to aggression when deep & MW. And yes, I'd size down to around 30% pot
At 23:40, would you call 87s with a bdfd in Phil's shoes facing a pot sized bet?
Yes, and probably do some raising as a bluff, too. Although not often as we aren't incentivised to fastplay too much
Thanks Luke, enjoyed the vid :)
04:32 you mentioned JTs wouldn’t be a bad hand to squeeze here given the dead money here — however wouldn’t T be a semi-bad blocker here given it blocks many folds? Seems to me that hands like AJo/KQo are better for blocker properties + worse equity realization postflop.
Curious on your thoughts in terms of combo selection here.
Both would be reasonable hands. It's true that a T blocks some folds, however KQo also does. Ultimately I would look to find both.
Also the same hand with 973r — curious if QQ checks the flop and it goes checking thru, how would you choose the bet sizing on the turn? HU I think overbet makes most sense for a brick turn, but I’m not so sure on a multi-way spot what’s the reasonable sizing to use here?
B40 seems good, turn dependant. With so many players in the hand, and given our check OTF (reducing our nut equity likelihood), I don't like sizing up too much.
24:30
Interesting take on bet sizing with “scroll bet” concept!
So in online context, would you say when the sizing looks more “artificial”, it's more likely to be value rather than bluff?
'Scroll bets' can sometimes be overly weak, too. It really depends on the context! Sometimes they may want to click pot and tick down a BB with value and tick up a few BB's with bluffs, other times this may flip. It's very subjective, however, there is definitely EV to be gained if we pay attention to the details.
Luke Johnson
Haha it is subjective from your description. :D
In your opinion then, what's the best way to observe/categorize how the opponent scroll for bluff or value? Thanks Luke!
I hesitate/don't want to give general advice here, as the premise is to consider each hand individually, against their timing's, sizes, player profile, etc. That gut instinct is really what matters in these spots.
Yeah it makes a lot of sense :D really individual/spot dependent case
32:05
you mentioned the tendency of people not 3betting enough on the table (I think it’s somewhat prevalent in today’s live game). In your opinion, what’s the best adjustment we can do to take advantage of that?
Playing more aggressive pre when IP? can we VPIP more? Being aggressive OTF since their ranges are wider?
Open much tighter in EP, to avoid going OOP MW with marginal opens
SQ very aggressively, to large sizes, to avoid sharing EQ MW with hands that will overfold preflop
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