Jeff_ Can you timestamp this please? I'm a bit lost as to what you're referring to!

Luke Johnson I think Jeff was talking about this hand at 9:36 where you said AT "shouldn't have it on the flop" The actual hand takes place T#1 at 7:50 mark. I do see mostly AcTx or AxTc betting this board for 2/3 sizing, but there are some combos of AsTx and AxTs betting as well for a 1/3 sizing. I would guess SB is making a mistake of betting too many single spade or single club hands for this 2/3 size on the flop.

I think I understand what Jeff_ is saying as well. You realize you made a mistake on the flop with over cbetting or using the wrong size. Usually when this happens I am more likely to forfeit the hand and take a more passive action rather than forcing aggression on turn / river with good blockers / unblockers.

I also double checked what you said on the turn at the 8min mark. Where you mentioned the 51% turn barrel is fine but 2/3 will have higher EV. Spot on! And I also have this issue because I try not to create such a low SPR on the river or pot commit myself on the turn with certain hands.

Hey RunItTw1ce

Luke Johnson I think Jeff was talking about this hand at 9:36 where you said AT "shouldn't have it on the flop" The actual hand takes place T#1 at 7:50 mark. I do see mostly AcTx or AxTc betting this board for 2/3 sizing, but there are some combos of AsTx and AxTs betting as well for a 1/3 sizing. I would guess SB is making a mistake of betting too many single spade or single club hands for this 2/3 size on the flop.
I think I understand what Jeff_ is saying as well. You realize you made a mistake on the flop with over cbetting or using the wrong size. Usually when this happens I am more likely to forfeit the hand and take a more passive action rather than forcing aggression on turn / river with good blockers / unblockers.

I see why you would want to forfeit the hand, but we definitely should not do this, unless we believe we massively haemorrhaged our entire range. Moreover, messing up a single combo shouldn't constitute a huge impact. Therefore, so long as our blocker properties are good, and our range can still aggress, we should not always look to shutdown

I also double checked what you said on the turn at the 8min mark. Where you mentioned the 51% turn barrel is fine but 2/3 will have higher EV. Spot on! And I also have this issue because I try not to create such a low SPR on the river or pot commit myself on the turn with certain hands.

Once we've already polarised the flop and the turn hasn't changed anything, it does not make sense to then size down.

Great video luke!

Hey Red-3Bet-Invest thank you very much!

At 23:38, i feel that the flop fold with 99s is just too nitty. I have not run a sim to support that, but i think we will be folding way too much if we fold 99s. Also, arguably 99s is probably a better call against a polarized range than even a K, as when we do improve, we still get value from his range.

It turns out that you're totally right. Appreciate being proven wrong! It turns out we cannot fold any PP's, and 99 does indeed XC for more EV than Kx.

What do you think of villain's strategy here with regards to the overbet stab sizing? Do you think it's good, and something you might implement yourself?

Upsides:
Given that SB checks range, the BB has to stab a very polar range
As most players will not have studied facing such a large sizing it will induce lots of mistakes

Downsides:
Increased complexity in gameplan
Larger sims if adding another potential betsize

Do you think it's worth attempting to implement sizings like this if you are playing stakes lower than high stakes, or there are more low hanging fruit to pick with higher EV gains?

Hey matlittle

What do you think of villain's strategy here with regards to the overbet stab sizing? Do you think it's good, and something you might implement yourself?

I don't believe it is required, but it is definitely not bad. It comes down to your approach of simple vs complex. Personally speaking, I have chosen "simple".

Do you think it's worth attempting to implement sizings like this if you are playing stakes lower than high stakes, or there are more low hanging fruit to pick with higher EV gains?

Good question. I'll list a few bulletpoints:
• I do not recommend to scale your approach with the stakes you play. Find your approach and stick to it, improving step by step
• There are times I add sizes to my "bet size repertoire". This doesn't strike me as one of them, but to somebody else, it may fit in nicely. Everyone builds their own game plan slightly different! As a quick TL;DR, I'd say yes, it is definitely worth implementing big sizes and small sizes to your game in certain nodes.

Apologies for the roundabout answer Hope you understand my points.

Hey Spelly89 can you timestamp please?

Sorry, sure 11:25 Luke Johnson

The reason we cannot use KT of these colours is because we interact with his folding range too much

Better hands would be our 8x that bluff turn (we have plenty due to being in the BB and having a polarised 3betting range preflop), and also some overpairs without any spades and ideally diamonds, that were vbetting turn, but now play the board and turn themselves in a bluff. AAdx would be ideal, blocking plenty of his Axdd which he shouldn't always stab on flop

Interestingly, there also be a marked suit preference for your turn QT raises as well; so strong that on turn QcTc would raise pure and QdTd would call pure against 2/3 sizing. It seems that a higher percentage of villian’s primary backdoor bluffs come from cc than any other suit e.g. A2c-A4cc and K2c-K4cc regions. At least, that’s my best explication. Again, this might also to some extent account for different turn strategies. Villian might be raising more offsuit value combos on flop after getting there with a wider preflop range relative to the number of suited flop backdoor raises he’d have with his range that calls facing 3x preflop.

Ok cool. Because 2/3p / check would be a really strange output from PIO given the polarity the situation should demand. Was your initial sim output from a 40bb preflop setup?

Hey Carambalage

The more I think about your small IP 3bet strat the smarter it seems, particularly BvB. You remove all polarity from the range, so no A2o, k6o etc which are combos people realise they must 3bet but are hard to execute well post and the correct villain response I assume is to go massive 4bet because you're so linear, but they won't because they're still operating under the assumptions of their own study and different ranges, and then you have a bunch of calls to the 4bet with higher than standard SPR and positional advantage.

Appreciate that! As you can imagine, my small 3bet has just become the norm to me after doing it for years. Sometimes I forget that it is 'unique' and that others may be struggling vs it haha

Just a question about splitting, Given that people are introducing more complexity into their games now how much attention do you give to splitting deviations? For instance, the Q10dd hand turn play at 39mins in, there are some villains here (even supposed good hs players!!!) who will put their qj/kq into the 2/3 sizing and never balance that with their 55/q10 which always go into the overbet bucket. Do you see this stuff happen a lot at 2k/5k+ and put much stock into the reaction game? Seems to me the EV edge you gain from complexity you lose in 'deception' a lot of the time

If you can get good at consistently figuring out the highest EV single sizing, then you typically do not lose much EV outside of the river, as you are able to reclaim part of the EV you lost by instead mixing river.

who will put their qj/kq into the 2/3 sizing and never balance that with their 55/q10 which always go into the overbet bucket

I just want to point out that this is a common flaw in people's thought processes. Poker is by nature a game of incomplete information. Therefore, try to refrain from "knowing" things about villain(s), unless you've hard the evidence!

the cool thing i see here is the a4 a5 a3 c/r over the low pockets

JoeAdams1 its based on XR hands without SDV that can still improve to top pair. A hand like A4s for example if opponent 4bet a hand like K10s, can still improve to A (3 outs) or bdfd (1 out). Where PP just has 2 outs and likely ends up getting bluffed off its equity from AJs/A10s that it is ahead of on future streets.

Hey RunItTw1ce

46min - You mentioned SB doesn't have a flatting range? I checked a couple of sims on wizard both for 10%, 13%, & 25% cb sizes and they all have flatting ranges.

As per previous comments, I highly recommend players to run their own sims

There was an old video with PSEK that talked about using small pairs in 4BP and the only raise size being XMR because of the SPR.

Yep, this will typically happen on the higher and more symmetrical boards. For instance, you will not see this being used on 866r.

I think Saulo might be mixing up either a texture or mixing up strategy in 3BP where some small pairs get turned into bluffs and 77 is going to be bottom of 3B range from the SB. So I think Saulo was turning bottom of pair range into a bluff.

Who knows where Saulo went wrong. I sided with the play 25% of the time. The lesson I took from being wrong here is that I need to do better at appreciating just how good the board is for the PFR. The better it is (KQQr is superb for the PFR), the less we are able to find these fancy Min2b bluffs w/ underpairs.

Can you elaborate on why you would not have a flatting range here in the SB?

Honestly, mainly because that is the recommendation from PIO. Whilst I try not to emulate PIO to a tee, PIO has outright ruled calling to be suboptimal in this hand (and in similar setups, too).

JoeAdams1 :

the cool thing i see here is the a4 a5 a3 c/r over the low pockets

RunItTw1ce :

its based on XR hands without SDV that can still improve to top pair. A hand like A4s for example if opponent 4bet a hand like K10s, can still improve to A (3 outs) or bdfd (1 out). Where PP just has 2 outs and likely ends up getting bluffed off its equity from AJs/A10s that it is ahead of on future streets.

Our outs with the bdnfd wheels are definitely less clean, but we must consider our effective blockers to the AA AK AQ range of IP. This seems to be the tipping point to make them BE at equilbrium

JoeAdams1 thank you mate!

Hey quik I don't agree

If villain A takes 50 seconds to call river, and Villain B only 5 seconds, then I envision Villain A to fold more in a vacuum. Moreover, Villain A needing the extra time means it is a tougher decision for them.

Hey vishant5

I try not to mix my sizes here. If I bet 1/3p with T3s, then it means I also have to vbet my turned top pairs, 2p's and straights for 1/3p, too. Instead, I'd prefer to xb T3 and then prioritise a bigger sizing for my more nuttier hands.

thanks love your content

Thanks mate. Appreciate the compliment and question!

Hey SoundSpeed

Great start to the series. Looking forward to more! In the review I do like seeing the sims but the style you used talking about the sims only was efficient and allowed you to get through more hands. Staring at sims can be tedious too.

Awesome! Glad you enjoyed :)

11:00 btm right review table you said you would have to raise fold t6hh on turn. Isn't that just giving up way too much eq? By raising we isolate vs only the stronger made hands and flush draws so I suppose that is why we have to fold to a reraise? Would cc be a viable option?

It wouldn't be, no. Try not to get tangled up by thinking about how much EQ you are raise-folding (or bet-folding). Once you vpip money to the pot, the money is dead. Therefore, your fold is not to be related to the now dead money.

11:57 top left you said you would bet diamonds before hearts, kt before jt. Can you talk about why that is?

When you think about IP's cbF strategy, once they xb, they will have more single heart hands that fold, relative to single diamond hands.

23:25 btm left kqo in sb. Is this a high freq fold for you?

Yep. I will occasionally 3b. I don't play CC's here

57:45 last hand analysis. So basically are you saying vs ep we turn that hand into a bluff a lot by raising because it's eq isn't as good, but vs lp we mostly call because:
A. Our eq is better vs lp rng and
B. We have better hands available to us to bluff with?

A: Yes
B. Yes, in LP we have other hands to bluff with

A hand like top pr on 977 seems too valuable to turn into a bluff however tp on 533 seems to make more sense as it is weaker.

We'd xr weak TP's on both 977 and 533. Moreso vs EP.

The way you explain suit dynamics is the most thorough I have ever seen. Do you find that your very detailed focus on that has improved ev a lot? I have a hard enough time just trying to get basic combos and frequencies down in gto.

Thank you!

Hard to say on how much EV I gain. Typically suit effects are quite marginal in EV. Occasionally, however, niche suit effects can work out to be the difference between a good play and a punt. Overall, I'd say the ROI of learning lots of cool suit effects isn't too high tbh

You are one of the best coaches on rio. I learn an incredible amount from your vids. Thank you!

& thank you again! Really appreciate comments like these! More videos to come, cheers :)

Hello Luke,

Hey :) matlittle

Enjoyed the ratio of play to depth of study on this video, looking forward to the next one.

Awesome! Glad to hear it

9.00 AsTd 3 barrel on 984ccs37
This was also an interesting hand, so I ran a sim for it -
AsT low frequency flop cbet
Turn should be a pure give up though with AsT due to blocking AXss which called the flop and will snap fold the turn
River - jam AT without Ac
77 pure fold on the turn

My sim aligns perfectly with yours.

Surprising to see 77 pure fold w/ 3:1 OTT. I would have made a mistake here.

52.42 KQ on AKTr
You said there is a minor blocker effect with the Kd, and I want to check that I understand it correctly. Does IP bet call some KXdd hands like K8dd on the flop ahead of Khh combos as the Ad being on the board means the KXdd are drawing to the backdoor nut flush rather than backdoor 2nd nut flush?
So then the bluffing preference for BB's KX on the offsuit turns would be Ks>Kh>Kd?

Yep perfect, exactly right. This is a consistent heuristic in many other spots, too!

27:55 You mentioned the J is good for your range, but you don't want to bet TX on the turn? I agree it seems a bit thin, but I think TX can still go 2 streets here. On the river you have check already checked, but if SB is betting all of its JX after playing BC-X-? then I think TX becomes an easy value bet on the right? Also going back to the turn I just see a ton of value from hands like 99, 88, 87, 97s, 85s, etc that have the pair + gutter. Probably end up with too many bluffs on the river and not enough value if you are not betting TX.

Turn:
Indeed the Jx is a good card, but Tx is just too thin.

River:
Tbh I agreed with your thoughts and thought my xb was a mistake in hindsight, but it turns out to be fine. We do find some Tx vbets, but we need a slightly better kicker.

58:00 You mentioned Ac5c folds the flop? I think most nut FD back door continues, The Ac5c also has some bdsd equity, but ace high is still beating some king-high as well that cb's. I am probably continuing too many back door draws. Just looking at a sim, I do see Ac5c folding a small frequency of the time (11%), but other hands I would continue with like QcTc / QcJc seem to be folding 87% of the time. With 2 overs + bdsd + bdfd, I don't see why these hands are folding vs a 1/3 bet. Is it just because hero is OOP?

Nice find with A5 bdfd defence. However, note that we don't defend A5s because we are ahead of Kx, as Kx are going to bluff on almost every runout when in EP

Please help me understand this spot for back door floats. This appears to be a huge leak of mine. Thanks Luke Johnson Looking more at the sim the KcTc will call vs 1/3 but QcTc folds. But QcTc turns OESD on J or 8, where KcTc only turns OE on 8. This is a bit confusing to me. Is turning top pair Qx not good enough? I don't see a big difference between KcTc > QcTc.

I would find it too hard to breakdown the spot in a single comment. I encourage you to drill the spot (as with LPvsBB) to find the heuristics and trends in your errors in process.

Can you make the screenshot a little bigger please?

Are the preflop ranges consistent?

Luke Johnson
Here is the QTc that is folding mostly.

Here is the QTc that is floating.

Preflop RFI + BB defense range. The two charts on the right are the ones that defend QTc on the flop and the two charts on the left are the ones that mostly fold QTc on the flop.

Thanks for the pics RunItTw1ce

It is a little surprising that it goes from a pure defend to almost a pure fold. From the pics alone I'm struggling to come to something concrete here. Sorry RunItTw1ce

Luke Johnson I think I came up with something that makes some sense to me at least. Preflop the charts on the right are 3 betting more suited broadways, so postflop it is choosing QTc to continue with because a lot of the other suited broadways get 3bet preflop. Where the chart on the left looks like a more polarized 3betting range, so postflop it has more AJs-ATs, KQs-K10s to defend with before having to defend QTc.

Another video Luke! You’re for sure my favorite coach here!

Hey Pinzo thank you very much!

45:06 if we check do we call a stab? If so what do we do on blank rivers?

All your comments seem to follow a similar theme, which is what we should do if XYZ happens. As noted in one of my other replies, I try to avoid thinking about Poker throug hthis lens, especially if the question has multiple threads; it is bet sizing specific OTT and OTR. I would highly recommend playing each spot as it comes

52:25 would it make sense to use this combo as a bluff on 3 streets?

Similar thoughts here, too

What do you mean with the spreadsheet you give to your students? Thanks!

Can you leave a timestamp, please?

interesting as well he called your sb 3 bet with ako utg
i assume the call is more reasonable since where deeper than 100bbs

Even at 100bb in these positions AKo is mostly a flat with a low freq 4b option in there, too. You can even play some calls with AKs/KK

im not sure if villain had flopped trip jacks that he would play the flop and turn like this, im sure aj or kj qj could re raise on the flop as well.

QJ-AJ would mostly (perhaps always) just call flop and turn, as OOP has all trip hands, plus more, including more flushes and overpairs. This totals up to IP not being very incentivised to start building an even bigger pot as an overall dog.

by the river, i really like the block bet, and ak blocks some aj kj, a5 even!

Block is interesting. Shoving also seems like a good option unblocking clubs

i wonder if he had ak of clubs if he can make this jam, kind of a pure bluff catcher.

In this line I'd be vbetting many lower flushes, and even some overpairs with club blockers, so his AKcc would be a very clear valuecatcher. Likely unable to shove, though

Yeah this makes sense. Too thin to shove and certainly an easy valuecatcher call, both in theory and in reality