Zoom and Analysis: 2 Table $2.5/$5 Zoom NLHE
Posted by Lucas Greenwood
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I have to say nothing tilts me more than having some coach talk about how Player x is from Country x so he's automatically "aggressive" or a "whale" or whatever adjective you want to throw in there. You might as well say all x people are lazy or all x people are cheap, it's basically the same thing. Other than that I'm only 2 minutes in so no "poker" questions
While I can understand your dislike for stereotyping without any other information the natural thing is to fall back on past experiences. Right or wrong if I see a lion I think it's dangerous, same goes in poker if you find a larger than average portion of x nationality is loose then without any other info it's natural to consider that might be the case, same as if an old guy sites at the table you'll think he's going to be tighter. Sadly stereotypes exist for a reason.
People's tendencies and behaviors are a result of their context, so its safe to assume that people from the same geographical area share some of these tendencies and behaviors. As stated by Forbes this is only useful when you have absolutely no prior knowledge of your opponent. For example I think its probably not a bad idea to spur anti gun law ideas in southern states..
I think you misplayed the AQ hand, I think your flop plan is fine to let the button stab with his entire range but I think that plan has to be re-evaluated on the turn after the BB calls and you overcall. It's a spot where the button is never going to continue to bluff on the turn after getting called by the BB and your over-call. He is also going to pot control a decent amount with weaker Qx type hands because your line looks so strong (check-overcalling) Your never check-overcalling a gutshot or TT-JJ here and you don't want villain to realize his equity with a hand like KJs, KTs, 9x
I think you have to lead the turn here as villain is never firing a 2nd barell as a bluff/semi bluff with the BB and you overcalling. I realize that leading the turn looks so strong but your check overcall looks so strong anyway that you lose to much value by allowing villain (Button) to check back hands that he would call a bet with
when you range villain in that huge overbet turn , when you have AA, do you really think he has all sets there?
i mean, that board crushes his range and its really bad for yours as you said cause you are flatting and not 3betting almost all broadways , medium pairs etc.. that said, why would he overbet hands that has your range close to drawing dead like sets , straights ? to me its much more likely he has combo draws , maybe 2pairs ...
take it easy colosk1, like it or not national stereotypes are part of the game and they do carry weight in certain poker decisions. Deal with it, were here to make the most amount of right decisions to win the most amount of money through any edge/advantage we can find on our opponent, not to be nice to everyone and worry about who's feelings we might hurt.
That said I agree that the overcall with the AQ hand seems bad, I personally like ending the hand on the flop when it goes bet/call, squeeze 3bet them to 85 or something and bet hard on the turn if they call when no scare cards hit. Sklansky says win the big pots right away, your line allowed 2 semi free cards basically
The turn is interesting as colosk1 said, he isn't bluffing turn very often with 2 callers, but by leading we don't rep the weaker hands that we would check call on the flop. Giving free cards does seem like an small issue, but the villian can still bet worse hands (KQ, QJ) when checked to and can also river worse one pair hands that may call. Interested to hear your thoughts Lucas!
at about 18:12 on the left table.
how are you adjusting your calling range there given that he 3b shoved with a 6 high FD?
I hate your line with AA. Where you 3bet, check call and then check fold. You have seriously underepped your hand. From my own past experiences villains turn over shove is very rarely the monsters you fear. He never has KJ IMO and very rarely takes this line with the sets. But Being a reg in these games I know the villains game very well. I would expect villains range to be very draw heavy on this turn. The reason I think you can never fold is decent 500nl regs will actually be value betting thinner than AA on this turn. When you check call this flop your range looks like a weak tp or 2nd pair. If I was villain and I had stabbed at this flop with KQ and then turned a Q, I can see myself over shoving for thin value expecting to get hero called by worse a decent amount.
Why ? So he never has KJ, he never has sets. What does he has ? Just AdJd/AcJc ? Looks pretty optimistic. I think that if i could say the word "never", i would say he never has AQ, but he certainly could have KJ/sets.
I think it's a clear fold.
9cTd6dQc Equity 88.48% { TT-99, 66, KJs, AdJd, AcJc } vs 11.52%{ AhAs }
He is beting 2.3x pot. You need 41% equity to call. Even adding a hand like AQo and an eventual AdKd, you just have 36%. And im not adding in his value range hands that he sometimes will show up like QQ, QTs, T9s, 78s.
I'm sorry but the ranges you construct for villain when analysing that AA hand are so far out IMO. I think it's important to note that you don't have blockers to either nut flush draw. For starters he therefore has every single AX of clubs and diamonds in his range as well as other weaker flush draw combos. I would also give him off suit combos of AJ that just turned an oesd.
Agree completely with this and above comment from this poster. Also, we're folding 100% of our range if we fold here I'd imagine.
You're still one of my favorite video producers though. <3
I liked the format, was kind of stop-start but was good to get the extra analysis on the more interesting/larger pots
Ok, a few things to respond to
1. RE: Country Reads
They certainly can be relevant, I wouldn't make dramatic changes in my ranges, but especially in spots where you have minimal reads on villain, I would suggest that it is a valuable piece of information. Part of this is because countries have different levels of education, average income, social norms etc which certainly can influence some players decision making. You obviously should avoid broad stereotypes i.e. "all players from country x are y" but thinking something like "typically players from country x are more inclined to y".
2. AQ hand I don't like check raising flop or betting turn, I can easily have QJ/QK/QT/JT/KJ, those hands are hands I want to call on the flop and check on the turn almost always, leading over reps my hand quite a bit, and even if I get called OTT I doubt I get called by worse OTR. I think constructing a c/c lead range strategy on this board probably isn't very sound and once I take the initial passive action of checking I should do the same OTT. If I lead the turn and get raised I should be folding fwiw, which is just another reason why I shouldn't lead.
3. AA hand I don't have PPT in front of me but I think its a fold for several reasons, the first being that villain is more likely to overbet his value hands than he is is his bluffs. The second being that this board smacks his range, and gives him a ton of combos of better hands, that fit his pf action. What I mean is given that he raises pf and calls a 3bet, his range is full of hands that he doesn't want to play for stacks pf but doesn't want to fold either i.e. middle-high pairs, and middle high suited connectors. OTF I check because this board hits is range better than mine and opt to call a bet. Even though this board is good for his range, villain does have the option to check back and chooses not to which gives us some information on his hand. On the turn when he overbets there are a few thing to consider, 1. Against his value range I have extremely poor equity, 0 outs against a straight, 2 outs against a set, and 8 outs against two pair. While all of his draws have at least 9 outs and potentially 15-18
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=9cTd6dQc&g=he&h1=AA&h2=ac2c%2Cac3c%2Cac4c%2Cac5c%2Cac7c%2Cac8c%2Cactc%2Cacjc%2Cackc%2Cad2d%2Cad3d%2Cad4d%2Cad5d%2Cad7d%2Cad8d%2Cad9d%2Cadjd%2Cadqd%2Cadkd%2CTT%2C99%2CTx9x%2C7x8x%2CKdJd%2CKcJc%2Cqdjd%2Cqdkd%2Cadqd%2Cjj&s=generic
This simulation is very generous and gives us just enough equity to get it in, it assumes he can every NFD, always shoves JJ OTT and never has QQ or QTs also a lot of his bluffs i.e. A2cc are extremely unlikely to be in his range, definetely a spot I need to fold even though I will be getting bluffed some % of the time.
4. QTs I mean knowing that he shoved a 6 high fd should make me inclined to play the hand the way I did and hope he gets it in light with KJ or a weak fd or Qx or Tx. Realistically I think my sizing is too big, I think the decision to c/r is fine but I would prefer smaller because I can c/r fold this flop. Obviously betting is a fine option as well but this is a flop I will c/r with my strong draws fairly often so adding some value hands to my c/r range is certainly fine.
In regards to point #2 the AQ hand. When your plan is to check call the flop, that's completely fine but I think you have to re-evaluate your decision on the turn when the button stabs and is called by the blind and yourself. If you were the button, what would you do in is his spot with your air range after you stabbed when checked to and were called in 2 spots, one of them an over call by the PFR? What would you do with KQs? QJs Are you really continuing to fire the turn with marginal hands there as the button? What range would you assign to the PFR if you were the button and he you were called by the blind and the PFR? You say you can easily have JT, KJ? Are you really not c-beting those draws on that dry board on the flop? Would any winning reg not cbet those hands on the flop on that dry of a board? I would say the very bottom of the button continuing range would be AQ.
In regards to facing a turn raise, it's not something you ever have to worry about seeing as how if you lead and get raised your never getting bluffed from a worse hand by the button when he still has to worry about the blind who's range is uncapped. It's not like the button is ever going to just randomly raise you when the BB still has to act and your line is already going to raise warning bells. The entire point is you overcalled. If the flop went: btn bets and the blind folds and you check call, then the check on the turn is mandatory.
If you are the button, what is your turn barreling range after you are called in 2 spots one of them an overcall from the PFR?
And in regards to my point of changing your plan on the turn, what I mean is you should be leading the turn, not X/raisign the flop
AA hand - You need 31.8% to make the call"profitable
I ran a simulation in Odds Oracle, and against the range I assigned to Villian, you have 35.44% equity. I gave him a bunch of suited connectors that have two pair, so your equity is probably a little higher.
Does anyone know how I can post it?
I see you only 3.5x 3-bet versus a min-raise. Isn't that a little too small, especially slightly deeper?
When you use ProPokerTools to justifie your JTs 3b flat. If i go for the same method as you a hand like 67s flops around 40% of the times at least 35%+ on the flop against tightest range you could ever imagine (QQ+AQs+AKo). So this means that i could flat the 3b with my all coldcall range ? How wide would you go ?
AA Hand:
Are you familiar with the expression sailing too close to the wind? From my perspective the important thing to understand is his value range as us beat quite badly, and a lot of his pf range are value hands OTT. When we do odds oracle situations and find we can construct a range where we are marginally making money getting in, we need to be very careful because if our assumptions are incorrect and villain is not bluffing often enough we will be losing a ton of bbs getting in. I think this is a spot where the downside of getting it in (putting in 80bbs with (10-0% equity) Is a much worse outcome than the alternative, getting it in against semibluffs, especially because he's not going to autobet flop and turn with a lot of his marginal holdings. I also need more than 31.8% equity, I need 33.3% equity if he bet pot OTT he bets over 2x pot. I need over 40%.
AQ Hand:
I could easily check JT OTF or KJ or KT either planning on c/r or planning on c/c. OTT I stand by my point, there are not that many free cards I am letting my opponent draw to, the most would be 11, (between the two of them) and the fewest would be (5-6). I also by leading overrep my hand, likely will induce villain to fold a hand like KQ or QJ, if I get called I will be completely lost on all rivers, since villain can easily smooth call a set or two pair OTT. I think choosing to lead the turn is not a good play with any hand once I've taken this line IMO, especially with a hand that I'm not comfortable facing two big bets. Keep in mind I will often fold my weak Qs to a turn a bet, meaning that its not a bad spot for villain to bluff if he has a hand with equity. I understand why you want to lead the turn, but I think letting a free card roll off is not ideal but still the best play.
67s Hand I think you could call 67s profitably, but you should probably 3b or fld it the first time around, not entirely sure on it, but in general I trust the oracle here. You should not be flatting the 3b with your entire cold call range, suited connectors have special properties, mainly they are good at flopping equity vs strong ranges. Calling the 3bet here with a hand like 66 or ATo would be horrible and PPT will confirm that I believe.
' sailing too close to the wind' love the expression~
In fact ATo flops 30% of the times 35%+ equity, and 66 51%. But should be a good aproach to construct a call-3b-range-as-cold-caller-pre. Great video.
Could u plz keep making this series of vids ? it's nice!
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