John Mackay11 years, 11 months agoyou skimmed over a spot @12.10 where you folded 55 vs a 15% utg rfi, you started explaining your thoughts on calling vs folding there an then since its live got you distracted (understandable obv) - can you give your thoughts on calling pairs 22-66 vs an EP open depending on RFi percentages, and also what would make you deviate from calling (eg.agro blinds squeezers is something that'd be pretty important obv, howver people really vary their play a lot just sqz vs MP/CO/Btn/SB and don't really attack utg as much)
Lucas Greenwood11 years, 11 months agoBasically 55 isn't that strong a hand, we have a tough time showing down a winner unless we make a set and players play well enough now that they won't auto stackoff overpairs so I don't think the implied odds are strong enough to call.
I would choose to call if any of the players behind or the opener were fish, and I would also 3bet it as a bluff reasonably often, particularly vs players who open wider utg.
I don't think you need to shove the river. Its very unlikely that you have a 6, or JT in your range, so repping those hands shouldn't necessarily be your goal. I think it's more likely that you have a 9, a boat yourself, or exactly the type of hand that you have (float). If we look at our opponents range, the part that does not include a 9, boats or JT/6 (can't get those to fold), we are looking at AQ/AK, 7X and TT-AA by the river. I think our opponent double barrels TT-AA some of the time as well, making those hands rarer in this spot. Even tho the pot is bloated, and your ship represents a PSB, I think you can accomplish the same thing (trying to fold out AQ/AK, 7X and TT-AA) by betting something like 120$. As the board has straightened out, you could easily be lowering your value bet size when you're holding a nine, or even a boat. I think it's next to impossible that you will ever get C/R bluffed, that you can save about 200$ here, still fold out our opponents weaker range (AA and below) and still be able to have value hands in this spot. Or at least, your opponents will probably perceive it that way. GL Lucas, welcome to Runitonce!
Lucas Greenwood11 years, 11 months agoThanks for the comment, I agree with pretty much all of it. I don't think the river bluff is good, and I should probably be giving up, particularly because I agree that he probably bets turn with JJ-AA fairly often and will likely c/f his AK/AQ some of the time as well.Bhtopspin11 years, 11 months agoYou don't think that the opponent will call $120 with TT-AA range there on the river? I mean the pot on turn was around $360 and betting $120 will give him 4 to 1 on his money and I think a lot of players will hero there hoping to catch random flop float, etc. As far as his AK, AQ type hands, I think he folds most of those on the turn. I agree that TT-AA range will bet turn often, but TT, JJ may check there to pot control and by shoving river, those hands will very likely fold. I am kind of leaning toward shove or check that river... check maybe 60-70% of time.
Mike Ferrell11 years, 11 months ago8:00
not a fan of the QJdd river fold. seems like a lot of your perceived range is 76s, 77, A8s, T9s etc. don't you think he can be vbetting TT/JJ, A9s there, or no?
Mike Ferrell11 years, 11 months agomeh he 3xed it pre so no 76s i wouldn't think in your range, but the other ones are all there, and your strongest hands are discounted relative to them since you didn't raise flop or turn.
Lucas Greenwood11 years, 10 months agoI'd say that my game probably involves more slowplaying than most, so I feel comfortable folding river, because I expect to show with sets/straights there fairly often. I'd also add I expect him to check fold a lot of his weaker holdings on the flop which makes me more inclined to fold, because basically I think his betting range on the flop contains so many strong hands (potentially enough strong hands that floating the flop is -ev).
Maddsoul11 years, 10 months agoThis is a good vid. Zoom makes for some pretty cool, fast action. Well played, just a tough break on that shove.
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I would choose to call if any of the players behind or the opener were fish, and I would also 3bet it as a bluff reasonably often, particularly vs players who open wider utg.
I don't think you need to shove the river. Its very unlikely that you have a 6, or JT in your range, so repping those hands shouldn't necessarily be your goal. I think it's more likely that you have a 9, a boat yourself, or exactly the type of hand that you have (float). If we look at our opponents range, the part that does not include a 9, boats or JT/6 (can't get those to fold), we are looking at AQ/AK, 7X and TT-AA by the river. I think our opponent double barrels TT-AA some of the time as well, making those hands rarer in this spot. Even tho the pot is bloated, and your ship represents a PSB, I think you can accomplish the same thing (trying to fold out AQ/AK, 7X and TT-AA) by betting something like 120$. As the board has straightened out, you could easily be lowering your value bet size when you're holding a nine, or even a boat. I think it's next to impossible that you will ever get C/R bluffed, that you can save about 200$ here, still fold out our opponents weaker range (AA and below) and still be able to have value hands in this spot. Or at least, your opponents will probably perceive it that way. GL Lucas, welcome to Runitonce!
not a fan of the QJdd river fold. seems like a lot of your perceived range is 76s, 77, A8s, T9s etc. don't you think he can be vbetting TT/JJ, A9s there, or no?
Lucas,
Good vid, will be watching them all.
Just one thought. 25m22s
Table 2 AJo 3B Why CB so
large?
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