35.00 873ss
Kinda surprised to see 99 fold here vs the jam. I ran the hand and it looks like you're right that it's break even, and would therefore be -EV with reads that the BB isn't jamming light enough. In light of that, would it make sense to raise a little smaller here with our range? We would lose less money in this type of scenario, and reduce the BB's jamming frequency given that there's less in the pot.
Thank you for your comment! Yeah, it's the groundwork of BrPC's methodology, understing GTO, studying MDA and making the proper adjustments when necessary
Max Lacerda What about AXJc type hands? Most of the value is going to be 53s (straight), flush, or boats. Not sure how much of your range plays like this and just end up over folding in this line. To have a calling range I feel earlier streets have to be play very deceptive without betting flush draws and hope we have enough A2s A4s 88 etc type hands that play this way.
Over folding is correct when someone is underbluffing, just do some nodelocks yourself so you can check it, so there's no problem in doing so, the problem actually would've been to continue to call GTO or even overcall (if you're sure villain is underbluffing - which is the case here). I'd call AJ because I think it's reasonable for this player to have AT or A9 for value.
I ran it and was also surprised to see these hands are ~break even calls, so good spot from you there! One thing I would like to ask though is which part of the game tree you think population is under-bluffing? Based on my sim for this spot it's quite easy for BB to over-bluff the river in my opinion. With range explorer I can see that bluffs (anything worse than trips) have to give up 2/3 of the time on river. Turn bluffing region is somewhat natural in my opinion - offsuit broadways with FD, straight draws, some low pair + draw hands. Lots of the broadway missed flush draws are supposed to give up river, so there is scope for BB to easily overbluff river in my opinion.
matlittle do you mind sharing the PIO sims if you have it saved for this spot? Also curious what the BB range looks like preflop because I have seen some very wide ranges and very tight ranges to everything in between.
This is looking more like a call to me if enough of the 54s and off suit broadways find those bluffs. Then psychologically our perceived range should look a lot like AX, so villain is unlikely to bluff or expect hero to fold trips.
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Yes! Testing the ice! Qing Yang talked about that in the video "Non-Geometrical Sizing"; you referred to the concept around 20:45.
And that reminds me that RIO has some really outstanding Essential content, and your stuff in particular is excellent.
Yeah, exactly, Qing's videos are awesome btw. Thanks for the comment!
35.00 873ss
Kinda surprised to see 99 fold here vs the jam. I ran the hand and it looks like you're right that it's break even, and would therefore be -EV with reads that the BB isn't jamming light enough. In light of that, would it make sense to raise a little smaller here with our range? We would lose less money in this type of scenario, and reduce the BB's jamming frequency given that there's less in the pot.
Yeah, I prefer using a smaller sizing, it makes more sense specially since he c-bet aroung 1/2 pot, something like 2.5-2.7x looks good
I like how you weave MDA into your play and give MDA based tips
Thank you for your comment! Yeah, it's the groundwork of BrPC's methodology, understing GTO, studying MDA and making the proper adjustments when necessary
22:30 X-C-F....... what are you calling with here?
hands that beat value bets
Max Lacerda What about AXJc type hands? Most of the value is going to be 53s (straight), flush, or boats. Not sure how much of your range plays like this and just end up over folding in this line. To have a calling range I feel earlier streets have to be play very deceptive without betting flush draws and hope we have enough A2s A4s 88 etc type hands that play this way.
Over folding is correct when someone is underbluffing, just do some nodelocks yourself so you can check it, so there's no problem in doing so, the problem actually would've been to continue to call GTO or even overcall (if you're sure villain is underbluffing - which is the case here). I'd call AJ because I think it's reasonable for this player to have AT or A9 for value.
I ran it and was also surprised to see these hands are ~break even calls, so good spot from you there! One thing I would like to ask though is which part of the game tree you think population is under-bluffing? Based on my sim for this spot it's quite easy for BB to over-bluff the river in my opinion. With range explorer I can see that bluffs (anything worse than trips) have to give up 2/3 of the time on river. Turn bluffing region is somewhat natural in my opinion - offsuit broadways with FD, straight draws, some low pair + draw hands. Lots of the broadway missed flush draws are supposed to give up river, so there is scope for BB to easily overbluff river in my opinion.
The A river is somewhat decent for IP, so this is why BB has to give up quite often with bluffs at equilibrium.
matlittle do you mind sharing the PIO sims if you have it saved for this spot? Also curious what the BB range looks like preflop because I have seen some very wide ranges and very tight ranges to everything in between.
RunItTw1ce linked them below
This is looking more like a call to me if enough of the 54s and off suit broadways find those bluffs. Then psychologically our perceived range should look a lot like AX, so villain is unlikely to bluff or expect hero to fold trips.
Yeh, agree that it's a scary spot to bluff, especially when we consider that EP has to fold AX 1/3 of the time at equilibrium:
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