$200NL: Think Simple

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$200NL: Think Simple

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Max Lacerda

Essential Pro

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$200NL: Think Simple

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Max Lacerda

POSTED Mar 03, 2022

Max Lacerda seeks to build on some of the theoretical concepts discussed in previous videos by utilizing real hands in real time and keeping the focus on maintaining a simple but effective approach.

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GEOabc 2 years, 10 months ago

Yes! Testing the ice! Qing Yang talked about that in the video "Non-Geometrical Sizing"; you referred to the concept around 20:45.

And that reminds me that RIO has some really outstanding Essential content, and your stuff in particular is excellent.

matlittle 2 years, 10 months ago

35.00 873ss
Kinda surprised to see 99 fold here vs the jam. I ran the hand and it looks like you're right that it's break even, and would therefore be -EV with reads that the BB isn't jamming light enough. In light of that, would it make sense to raise a little smaller here with our range? We would lose less money in this type of scenario, and reduce the BB's jamming frequency given that there's less in the pot.

Max Lacerda 2 years, 10 months ago

Yeah, I prefer using a smaller sizing, it makes more sense specially since he c-bet aroung 1/2 pot, something like 2.5-2.7x looks good

RunItTw1ce 2 years, 10 months ago

22:30 X-C-F....... what are you calling with here?

RunItTw1ce 2 years, 10 months ago

Max Lacerda What about AXJc type hands? Most of the value is going to be 53s (straight), flush, or boats. Not sure how much of your range plays like this and just end up over folding in this line. To have a calling range I feel earlier streets have to be play very deceptive without betting flush draws and hope we have enough A2s A4s 88 etc type hands that play this way.

Max Lacerda 2 years, 10 months ago

Over folding is correct when someone is underbluffing, just do some nodelocks yourself so you can check it, so there's no problem in doing so, the problem actually would've been to continue to call GTO or even overcall (if you're sure villain is underbluffing - which is the case here). I'd call AJ because I think it's reasonable for this player to have AT or A9 for value.

matlittle 2 years, 10 months ago

I ran it and was also surprised to see these hands are ~break even calls, so good spot from you there! One thing I would like to ask though is which part of the game tree you think population is under-bluffing? Based on my sim for this spot it's quite easy for BB to over-bluff the river in my opinion. With range explorer I can see that bluffs (anything worse than trips) have to give up 2/3 of the time on river. Turn bluffing region is somewhat natural in my opinion - offsuit broadways with FD, straight draws, some low pair + draw hands. Lots of the broadway missed flush draws are supposed to give up river, so there is scope for BB to easily overbluff river in my opinion.

RunItTw1ce 2 years, 10 months ago

matlittle do you mind sharing the PIO sims if you have it saved for this spot? Also curious what the BB range looks like preflop because I have seen some very wide ranges and very tight ranges to everything in between.

matlittle 2 years, 10 months ago
  1. Flatting range BB vs EP
  2. BB Probing turn range
  3. BB River betting range

RunItTw1ce 2 years, 10 months ago

This is looking more like a call to me if enough of the 54s and off suit broadways find those bluffs. Then psychologically our perceived range should look a lot like AX, so villain is unlikely to bluff or expect hero to fold trips.

matlittle 2 years, 10 months ago

Yeh, agree that it's a scary spot to bluff, especially when we consider that EP has to fold AX 1/3 of the time at equilibrium:

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