Live NHLE Hands (part 2)
Posted by Garrett Adelstein
Video Player is loading.
This is a modal window.
The media could not be loaded, either because the server or network failed or because the format is not supported.
Resume Video
Start from Beginning
Watch Video
10
Loading 37 Comments...
I liked this video quite a lot. To take my game to the next level I need to envision and execute more of the two street bluffs you highlighted here.
Thanks Koos!
With AJ on QJ8T I understand your decision to empty the clip. However as a blocker type hand, I'd rather not have a J in my hand as it reduces times he has Jx which we would rather see him have in his turn-call/fold-river-shove range. You could be potentially over bluffing in this spot if you are choosing this type of hand. I like having the ace though. How often do you just cbet AK on this flop? I probably just bet it more then I should and would be getting to turn with nowhere near all my AK combos as played.
Also on 853r-8-4,
After he checks turn there are 2.4 psb's left and you bet 54pct/93pct ai respectively. Are you just emptying the clip with your whole range once this turn comes down and he checks? If he is potentially tight as a 6% 3bet range I am folding flop. Not much room to maneuver if he double barrels some of his high card hands unless you have mastered the art of the soul read (which you may have).
Good video looking forward to next one.
About the AJ hand, and this applies to further comments below about it as well: A pretty big part of the reason I took the line I did here was for leveling reasons. In recent sessions, I had shown this player the goods lots and lots, particularly in spots where I'm repping super narrow. Also, this player certainly assumes I have a ton of 9x combos in my range, including 99 which is one hand I forget to mention in the video.
In the end, you just aren't going to see practically anyone calling without 9x or better here very often at all. I purposely picked these hands because they spark discussion, are super close, and certainly could have been played poorly. IMO, showing a bunch of hands where I overbet the river for thin value and am called by worse aren't often particularly interesting and after awhile make me come off pretty egomaniacal :) I'm my defense however, the fact he went deep into the tank w 9x means something I think.
Compared to many other variables, I think having a J in my hand is pretty far down the list. He is reasonably likely to check a J on the flop anyway for pot control/pick off delayed cbet bluffs and avoid having me c/r and dealing w that nightmare. As for overbluffing, see above about reasons why I went crazy here. The reality is that even against great players I play nowhere near GTO. I have an absurd amount of confidence (probably to my detriment) in all the lines I take and I have always incorporated game flow/leveling into my decisions way more than most. That was true back in my HU online days and is even more so the case in live poker.
Like 56ss, AT and AJ, I am going to be both betting and checking some % of the time. Again recent history plays a big role in this for me. But yes, I would c/ r/f/ and call w AK on the flop sometimes. And he reality is he plays a ton of guessing games trying to figure out that breakdown.
W/ 66, yes I had decided to empty the clip w my whole range based on the info I had. Yes I believe his 3b range is wider than 6, I'd say 10-12% as an educated guess. Agreed w my image the flop is a fold against 6%
Re AJ hand; It is defenitely an interesting hand to look at further despite not being a big math guy myself and being well aware that live poker hands focus much more on exploit-ability, I will give this hand the ole college try from a post analysis gto standpoint .
Qd8dJsTh2s
5700 more on river to win 16,070, so opponent needs to be good 35.4% of time or more to call on the river. how often does he have a 9?
On a linear 67% continuing range where 96o is at the very bottom. (note: this range assume he never 4bets)
67% = 750 hands
67%:(9) = 133 hands (99,A9,K9,Q9,J9,T9,98-96,9x5x-9x2x)
*So this assumes if he could have 96o he could also have 92ss which may or may not be case, but slight lol @ him defending so wide to begin with.
T9 probably bets the flop a lot and so do some of these other nines (i.e. he may occasionally just bet A9/K9/Q9,etc). Then since its 200bb deep btn vs blinds, comes question how often he can have AK himself (16 combos) or if he always 4bets, we reduce AK combos by 25% since we have an ace ourselves. So he probably has anywhere between 100-130 combos that get to turn as played that are straights. Or about 14-17% of his total range will be straights that will call down if we empty the clip assuming blank rivers (9,K,A rivers change stuff). On the turn we are risking 7100 additional chips to win a pot size of 1870, so he must defend a total of least ~20% to keep you from making a profit which means he needs to call occasionally wider then straights to keep from being exploited. Which intuitively makes sense, if you are going to go crazy bluffing here, he should have to occasionally call wider then just straights to stop you from profiting. But you are not always going crazy here so a happy medium somewhere exists.
If we look at your staight/value combos, 16combos of AK and 21 combos of 9x (99,Ax9x,Kx9x,Qx9x,Jx9x, 1comboT9s) for a total of 37 combos. That assumes you are 3betting a linear wide range for value of 18%. I think 37 combos is pretty generous and its probably a lot lower considering flop action can sometimes reduce some of these. On the river he needs to be good 35.4% of time, so our optimal gto bluffing range down should be 64.6% value/ 35.4% bluff or 37 combos value/ 20.2 bluff. Assuming only 30 value combos/ 16 combos bluff.
Picking the 16 combos to bluff:
1.) hands with favorable blockers.
= Ax or Kx that we chkd back flop with.
2.) hands that don't have a pair
-Gives him better chance of having a pair type hand himself which he will not be able to comfortably call a shove with.
Why I think having a jack in your hand sucks:
Qd-8d-Js-Tc-2s (board inputed)
68%:(J) = 93 combos (JJ,AJ,KJ,QJ,JT-J7,Jx6x-Jx2x)
68%:(J)!9 = 81 combos
So 12 combos will be a straight on turn.
Not all these 93 combos will chk flop (JJ, QJ, J8 usually always will bet) so assuming that it brings us down to 72 combos minus straight combos for a total of 53 combos.
*If anyone is confused by notation, it means all hands in a 68% range with a jack, and a 68% opening range with a jack that does not include a 9 in the hand.
How us having say a Jc in our hand affects things.
68%:(J)!Jc = 61 combos
68% (J)!Jc!9 = 53 combos.
So 8 combos will be straight on turn.
Again, not all these 61 combos will bet flop (JJ, QJ, J8) so that brings us to 47 combos minus straight combos that's 39 combos.
So its a difference of a total of 14 relevant combos (53-39) that he can potentially call turn/fold river with then if you didn't have the J in your hand. Which is nice to avoid if you can, which I don't see why you cant choose a suited ace or something instead. choosing the best bluffing hands very carefully is becoming a popular trend among the best online players. i can see why it obviously applies a lot less to live poker where the fact you are even bluffing in this spot is quite revolutionary compared to many live players, but its def. an important point not to be overlooked. good luck and sorry for the million word essay.
67- fine but probably check flop
JJ-probably check turn
JT- very,very,very bad
66-good
AJ-very bad
Why do you prefer checking the 67 in the first hand? Because you don't want to be raised OOP, or maybe because you'll have to check some 4-straights, board pairs and flush turns that will turn your hand face up?
Appreciate the input (not being sarcastic at all)
I'm sure myself and everyone else would love to hear you elaborate a bit on this or any other videos if you're so inclined.
Constructive criticism is welcomed by most/all but simply stating your opinion as fact without backing it up with any form of explanation or justification is simply lame.
Nice video, Garrett.
I like how you seem so confident in everyone's ranges being wide, and being able to own them.
In a future video, could you talk a little bit about how to adjust your pre-flop game when you're playing live, opposed to online?
Thanks Chael. And sure Ill try to remember to incorporate that topic in a future hand where bringing up preflop is relevant.
First thoughts. Glad to see some live poker content.
NLHE not NHLE (title typo; not very important)
The 76 hand your line seems fine I'd prob ck flop given he will be value betting pretty wide with the whale in the pot knowing he is calling light. Likewise he doesn't have to worry about you bluff raising his thin value bets because you won't be bluff raising with the whale in the pot much. By leading I think you fold out the hands that you were worried about checking like A9 which are drawing dead anyway. There are some benefits to leading vs KQ type stuff that may not bet.
From his perspective I think he should certainly be betting turn. He is not capped and can have sets ie boats so he doesn't have to be concerned with you bluff raising turn. He gets value and protection vs your draws and low straights. Id check all rivers in his shoes.
The 66 hand seems odd bluff choice. The turn isnt all that worrisome for him in fact its a card that he should be pretty happy betting turn jamming river. And with 1PSB left on river seems ambitious to bluff. If said player is 3betting 6% as you stated folding flop at that SPR> any other line.The AJ hand also seems -ev. You state you would xc AK on flop? you are only 60% vs a complete random hand on that board and he will be checking back a lot of Jx, Qx, and 8x hands to get to SD. I dont think you rep AK well. Also, you stated you expect him to call turn with a hand like Q3 yet you still opt to bluff. If a player is calling you as light as Q3 on turn I doubt said player is folding enough on river to make a bluff +ev given Q3 his a super light call on turn and he will have much stronger hands as well.
Can you explain further why he should be happy betting the 8 turn and jamming the river?
Really like your thoughts on the 76, thanks for chiming in. I personally am not a fan of considering my equity against a random hand there for a ton of reasons, but mostly just because his flop betting range is somewhat polarized
I didn't realize I said 6% on his 3B %. I don't think that's really the case thinking about it now. And honestly I do think I can play really well on the turn based on this players tendencies, but whatever, I def think folding the flop is fine at 6%.
See above for some thoughts on AJ hand. I think calculating my equity against a random hand is a pretty flawed variable to consider when deciding how to play AK here, let alone when deciding if he thinks I have AK as some of my value range, but I can see how that analysis could be helpful to some.
Against, my thoughts on him calling the turn but folding the river are highly player dependent. But again, you certainly could be right about my turn + river sucking. It's pretty damn hard to get to the bottom of it.
Dbrose,
I could do a more accurate job showing this if I was at home with odds oracle but Ill do what I can from my Ipad.
1) first you will notice QQs equity actually rises on the 8 turn compared to his equity on flop. Accordingly if this isn't a bad flop for QQ then the turn can't be bad for QQ.2) QQ has 80% equity on the 8 turn. Seems like a value bet is in order, checking would be a slow play/deception.
3) if you look at the graph you will see that average equity for QQ across all turns is approx 80%. On the 8 turn QQ has 80% another indication it's at least an average turn for a hand that already was far ahead of Gmans range.
4) if you sim the hand with a J turn which overall a blank instead of an 8, QQ has 1% higher equity than on the 8 turn. This is because SCs like 56 now do not have 2pr outs.
In summary, on the 8 turn QQ is still far ahead of Gmans range and if QQ chooses not to bet it should be with the intention of balancing his checking range with some slowplays.
*it should be mentioned that if stacks were much deeper it becomes closer because although QQ is equivalently ahead of Gmans range, Gman will have more nutty combos and will be in tough spots vs a raise.
In the hands stack depth, Gman could never bluff and only jam better than QQ and QQ would still have a +ev bet/call. Gman only has QQ beat 15% of the time on the turn.
The above analysis is a good learning tool and in a vacuum very helpful. But like the majority of hands I play live, it has little application in real time and most of the assumptions above are way off. This is partly a function of most of my opponents playing far from GTO/super transparently, and mostly a function of me just being a complete maniac and creating completely unique dynamics that essentially throw out standard lines. With all that said, I do appreciate your analysis and hopefully my posts don't come across argumentative just for the hell of it.
You don't come off argumentative in the slightest. In fact, I was hesitant as a fellow pro making the above comments given they were implying the bluff was imo a mistake.
I get that your opponents aren't playing GTO and may be taking suboptimal lines like not realizing he can vbet QQ. I wasn't saying that he would vbet them just that he should.
I'd like to ask though you mention that these hands don't play as they would in a vacuum mostly due to your image being "a complete maniac".
Wouldn't this image make your opponents call you down lighter thus making bluffing less attractive than if they were calling at GTO frequency?
Generally yes. My only defense is that against this specific opponent I am pretty sure that exactly 100% of the time he had called down in a big pot I showed him the best hand. And we have logged a ton of hours together. I also would argue he really hates to have to call off his stack w a non-nutted hand. With that said, the hand could still be a disaster for sure.
Makes sense. I wasn't privy to any of that so I couldn't make that inference. All I knew was what GTO strategy likely looks like and that you are viewed as ultra agressive. Anyways thanks for the discussion.
Zach, thanks for the analysis. Do you think on the 8 turn you are more likely to get looked up for 3 streets as well? After I asked the question I thought for sure that would be your answer, but it may be due to the games I play in where villain is more likely to shut down with QQ on an 8 turn. Thanks!
If villains think you will be checking your over pairs then yes. This would mean you are more polarized and would have many moire bluffs than value. However if they think you can still bet overpairs then it should slightly decrease their call down because when behind they wont have 2pr river equity.
I think villain should be betting his over-pairs but for smaller sizing than on other turns like a J. Somebody better versed in GT could confirm this but I believe that since we still have an equity advantage we want to bet but since villain has more nutty combos a smaller bet works best.
Great video, Garrett !!
Do you have a specific plan about the videos you will release for future ? I just though that i would love to see a video about live body tells/reads in some detail, i think it would be very very beneficial. Anybody else interrested in that ?
Thanks! And ya, I will try to incorporate some specific physical tells that made me think a certain way during a hand in the future.
Re AJ hand; It is defenitely an interesting hand to look at further despite not being a big math guy myself and being well aware that live poker hands focus much more on exploit-ability, I will give this hand the ole college try from a post analysis gto standpoint .
Qd8dJsTh2s
5700 more on river to win 16,070, so opponent needs to be good 35.4% of time or more to call on the river. how often does he have a 9?
On a linear 67% continuing range where 96o is at the very bottom. (note: this range assume he never 4bets)
67% = 750 hands
67%:(9) = 133 hands (99,A9,K9,Q9,J9,T9,98-96,9x5x-9x2x)
*So this assumes if he could have 96o he could also have 92ss which may or may not be case, but slight lol @ him defending so wide to begin with.
T9 probably bets the flop a lot and so do some of these other nines (i.e. he may occasionally just bet A9/K9/Q9,etc). Then since its 200bb deep btn vs blinds, comes question how often he can have AK himself (16 combos) or if he always 4bets, we reduce AK combos by 25% since we have an ace ourselves. So he probably has anywhere between 100-130 combos that get to turn as played that are straights. Or about 14-17% of his total range will be straights that will call down if we empty the clip assuming blank rivers (9,K,A rivers change stuff). On the turn we are risking 7100 additional chips to win a pot size of 1870, so he must defend a total of least ~20% to keep you from making a profit which means he needs to call occasionally wider then straights to keep from being exploited. Which intuitively makes sense, if you are going to go crazy bluffing here, he should have to occasionally call wider then just straights to stop you from profiting. But you are not always going crazy here so a happy medium somewhere exists.
First, thanks for taking the time to write all of this out, really cool stuff. Yet another example illustrating one of the main reasons I coach/produce videos:I learn/have things reinforced from you guys all the time!
I think looking at the turn to risk 7200 to win 1780 if not the right way to look at it. Plenty of the time he calls turn/folds river and thus I win almost 3X that amount. And even though this player is a bit more balanced in terms of calling down, there are several types of very poor players who live to take the call/call/fold line postflop. So when a triple barrel goes wrong I worry less about "Well on the flop there was only $x in the pot, wtf did I spew off for" and more "I have printed so much money against this player closing my eyes and triple barreling, that this is probably fine". It's also cool to have the rest of the table see you triple barreling 4X an orbit :)
If we look at your staight/value combos, 16combos of AK and 21 combos of 9x (99,Ax9x,Kx9x,Qx9x,Jx9x, 1comboT9s) for a total of 37 combos. That assumes you are 3betting a linear wide range for value of 18%. I think 37 combos is pretty generous and its probably a lot lower considering flop action can sometimes reduce some of these. On the river he needs to be good 35.4% of time, so our optimal gto bluffing range down should be 64.6% value/ 35.4% bluff or 37 combos value/ 20.2 bluff. Assuming only 30 value combos/ 16 combos bluff.
I would 3B bluff non-suited combos of T9o and T8o PF sometimes. I would never have an 18% linear value range, that % would always be smaller, what changes is the "bluff" aka K4ss not 92o to value ratio depending on how wide I think my opponent is calling me PF.
Picking the 16 combos to bluff:
1.) hands with favorable blockers.
= Ax or Kx that we chkd back flop with.
2.) hands that don't have a pair
-Gives him better chance of having a pair type hand himself which he will not be able to comfortably call a shove with.
The problem w/ the above is it's super hard for me to get to the turn w/ most of the hands you mention directly above, AK/AT being the exceptions. I'm all about floating OOP even after PF raising way more than most would be, but this is just a silly board to c/c the flop w/ A5 or K5.
Why I think having a jack in your hand sucks:
Qd-8d-Js-Tc-2s (board inputed)
68%:(J) = 93 combos (JJ,AJ,KJ,QJ,JT-J7,Jx6x-Jx2x)
68%:(J)!9 = 81 combos
So 12 combos will be a straight on turn.
Not all these 93 combos will chk flop (JJ, QJ, J8 usually always will bet) so assuming that it brings us down to 72 combos minus straight combos for a total of 53 combos.
*If anyone is confused by notation, it means all hands in a 68% range with a jack, and a 68% opening range with a jack that does not include a 9 in the hand.
How us having say a Jc in our hand affects things.
68%:(J)!Jc = 61 combos
68% (J)!Jc!9 = 53 combos.
So 8 combos will be straight on turn.
Again, not all these 61 combos will bet flop (JJ, QJ, J8) so that brings us to 47 combos minus straight combos that's 39 combos.
So its a difference of a total of 14 relevant combos (53-39) that he can potentially call turn/fold river with then if you didn't have the J in your hand. Which is nice to avoid if you can, which I don't see why you cant choose a suited ace or something instead. choosing the best bluffing hands very carefully is becoming a popular trend among the best online players. i can see why it obviously applies a lot less to live poker where the fact you are even bluffing in this spot is quite revolutionary compared to many live players, but its def. an important point not to be overlooked. good luck and sorry for the million word essay.
Thanks again for the feedback, and I like/agree w/ the last part of the analysis above.
Nice video again. Hands seem pretty close and spark discussion which is good.
In the future though I'd like to see you just do a video on 1 or 2 orbits of play. Sure it might be a bit boring seeing you fold standard spots but it would be interesting to see how your super laggy style does in situations where a lot of us are folding.
Also agree with above posters that I'd like some content on tells and also preflop game.
Great vid Garrett, no complaints here. Two question, on the 85384 board. Hypothetically lets say the same spot arises, say next orbit. Similar flop turn river and post flop action etc. Is your bluffing frequency going up or down on the river given the history of what just went down with the QQ? Maybe thinking something like "i just got caught, no way he thinks ill run another one right now" type thinking...
What are your thoughts on how the majority of recreational players react after winning a huge pot? Its my opinion that we have significantly more fold equity directly after they rake, obv it varies player to player but in general whats your opinion on this matter? Kinda of like they are in a good mood and satisfied with their current situation so it seems easier for them to just let the medium sized pots go easier?????
If he's bad, no question my bluffing frequency goes down. His level 1 thinking is as simple as this guy bluffs, I no fold. If he's kind of smart aka level 2, it's close but there is certainly merit to going crazy again right away. And if he's really smart, flip a coin/his decisions might be based closer to GTO if he wants to avoid that leveling war. Oversimplified but you get the gist.
Sure I think some specific types of rec players may "lock it up". But against me, way more are chomping at the bit to get me again!
Good video Garrett. You do a pretty good job explaining your thought process and I really like it when you talk about what you would have done if different cards came like the AJ hand if the board had paired the river. I was going to ask about that then you answered in the video. That really gives us useful insight as to how you think about the game, which is what I benefit most from. Not what to do, but how to think.
I agree with you that picking some hands where you are bluffing in close spots and get looked up is far more interesting than cherry picking hands where you just pwn people for thin value.
+1 on incorporating discussion of live tells in your videos. Better yet, make live tells the main topic of a video. Specifically, I'm really working on spotting tells of weakness and uncertainty early in a hand (like on the flop) so that I can proceed with big bluffs with more confidence.
Also, I remember you saying you normally play 8-10 hours a day. I'm curious how you structure your breaks, meals and snacks in a "normal" day of grinding. Do you bring food with you or just eat casino food? I don't have many healthy options at some of the places I play, so I try to bring healthy snacks. But I often hit a wall around 6 hours and need a proper meal. So most of the time I just end up going home unless the game is exceptionally good, but I feel like I'm not maximizing my potential. Whether ITT or in a video, I'd love to hear your thoughts on this.
Sorry guys, I've been awful at RIO stuff lately. My most recent video had audio problems so I am redoing that right now and it should be released soon. And I apologize for the incredibly tardy response to these last few comments as well...
Thanks for the praise. And ya it's settled, my video after next will discuss live tells as part of its content. Thanks for the suggestions. I also am going to discuss my routine and how I believe it gives me a mental edge in that video.
But to briefly answer your question, the casinos I play at all will make me whatever I want and bring it to the table <insert embarrassing survivor confessional here>
Garrett really enjoyed all three videos especially the first one as getting your overall thoughts on being as profitable as possible invaluable. Also, thanks for taking the time for the detailed blog responses. I've been a winning live 10/20 player for over 5 years but from listening to you and reading your posts I believe my biggest weakness is my information gathering on villains and developing strategies to exploit them. Of course I am doing it but the level of detail your brain is gathering is completely different than what mine is gathering over an 8+ hour session or even a single hand. I'd be interested in hearing any thoughts you have on this subject. Maybe after you go over a HH you could describe what details stood out to you and what you are remembering and how you may adjust against them in the future. Or what is going through your head during an average hand you are not in and just observing. Lastly, I hope you keep a combo of power point and HH in future videos. I personally learn better focusing on one subject, say 3 betting, than touching on lots of different subjects at one time. Maybe that's just me.
Thanks again. Looking forward to video #4.
Thanks! This is kind of one of those too hard to answer questions. My highly oversimplified advice is to just always be running scenarios in your head between hands and even between sessions. "If I open in this position and he calls in the CO and I triple barrel this board what range do I think he will call down/fold/where will he fold" is one example of millions.
i feel like the AJ hand is fine given we have Ace blocker to AK (plus he didn't 4b) and we can very credibly have AK here. Also, its hard to envision much worse hands that get to the turn this way. The one i think is most bad (just my opinion) is the JT. bc dude is a reg that cold called SB and we don't block any of his nutted hands (77, 99). if we had 7x, 9x i would like it more. i like the barrel with it tho but its a pretty shitty spot i think. I mean we block JJ/TT but with the fish in the pot behind he could have QQ+ (i think?) and then ofc 77-99. Anyways, nice video. what sick games you playing in! antes that equal half the BB wtf? lolol
Thanks reshove. In live poker, anything can happen haha
Really looking forward to the next video.
Hi Garrett, Will you be completing this series? Really thought the first 3 were valuable so I keep checking back. Thanks
Garrett Adelstein
Hey guys, I'm going to get this next video to ya ASAP, hopefully in the next several days. Unfortunately it will likely be my last for RIO.
Long story short, making videos has come with a ton of negative feedback from my peers (many of which have become good friends) in the LA live poker scene in regards to making the games tougher. It also has potentially played a role in me no longer getting to play in some 100/200 and 200/400 100 ante NL games; I worry about that having an impact in future big games as well.
I've also realized way too late that some of the positives I used to enjoy about video production just aren't there for me anymore (enjoyment of teaching, notoriety/respect among peers, the challenge of putting together a quality video, among others). I know that I planned on making 8 videos this year, not 4, and as such want to apologize to all the members as well as those who run the show here at RIO for not following through. It was my responsibility to weigh the pros and cons of getting back into video production before joining the RIO, and I'm regretful I didn't do a better job of that.Gl everyone, and sorry again.
Garrett, signed up for RIO as your videos were recommended to me. Cancelled subscription. Have 9 days left on RIO. Hoping you will put up #4 before then. Thanks!!!
Be the first to add a comment
You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.