6 tables $3/$6 Deep 6-Max PLO with Antes (Part 3 )
Posted by Leo Nordin
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We'll make a cpl basic assumptions. Let's assume AlusivPnkBny always has AAxx with at least one suit (AA!wxyz) since stacks are deep and his range can generally be assumed to be strong. Let's also assume twin-caracas overcalls with PPT top-30% hands. That's not super precise, but it will work reasonably for this calculation and it makes things easier. His actual hand confirms that range somewhat. Let's also assume that Alusiv shoves every flop, and twin-caracas gets it in half the time. We'll also assume that we play perfectly. This doesn't always happen, but it doesn't happen for other players either, so on average it's probably fine to assume that we follow equities.
There will be two cases. One where twin-caracas folds and it's heads-up after the flop, and one where it's 3-way. In the 3-way case there will also be a small side pot.
When twin-caracas folds, the pot will be $1011 and effective stacks will be $1247. The required stack-off equity is 35% (1247/(1011+1247+1247)). Using the graph feature of PPT, we'll see that we'll have enough equity around 40% of the time. 60% of the time we will fold, and lose the $327 we already put in. When we call, our average equity will be around 60% of a $3505 pot. So 60% of the time we lose $327 and 40% of the time we win $856. That gives around $146 profit or ~24bb.
When twin-caracas shoves, the pot is still $1011 and effective stacks now $1055. The required equity in this case is 25% (1055/(1011+1055+1055+1055)). Using the same graph feature we'll see that we have enough equity around 45% of the time, and we'll have 50% equity on average when we call. We still lose $327 when we fold, and we win $1033 when we get it in. This comes to $284 profit. The side pot will also lose us $57 on average, so our total profit for this case is $227.
So we have a profitable situation here whether or not twin-caracas gets it in on the flop. If he gets it in 50% of the time, our average profit will be $187 or 31bb.
On a flop like this we have to get it in. Our flush draw will be dominated ~20% of the time, but we still have enough equity to call on average. In this particular hand we had 40% which is obviously excellent.
I've made some liberal rounding here for simplicity. Not enough to affect the end result in any significant way though. The assumptions are possibly on the conservative side, so it seems clear that the decisions to call preflop and shove the flop are correct.
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