Your vids are always great, lot of deep thinking !
it's also a good news you will make more MTT stuff, it would be good to see from you your approach to MTT to get to the final table, your different approach on different stage of the game, some concept/example stuff like you did in the past in some of your vids like on range like your 3-bet linear/polarized one, I always struggle when faced a 3-bet, on the limit I play there's not so much 4 bet light and often hesitate to do it, so I think I call too much.
How do you work on your MTT game. Common mistake to avoid in MTT, stack size & dynamics, SPR, what to avoid to do regarding the size of your stack...

Hey Lucas, thx 4 the vid

Had a quick observation on the 44 hand you had on the Qc-T-2c-5-K hand:

Preflop I think its a pretty str8fwd fold to the cold 4b as you said given stack sizes, but I wanted to focus on the river play:

What are you repping by betting the river in this hand? Overall I agree with your thoughts on the fact that we should be bluffing this river vs opponents who aren't very good at hand reading, but if we are facing a better plyr who can hand read, then I think they will deduce that you don't have very much value on the river here and are bluff-heavy for the following reasons:

1.) when your opponent chks to you on the flop, hands like KJ/AJcc/K9cc (if you 3bet this last 1 pre, which is questionable) are all likely to bet the flop for fold equity etc. in your spot, so you can't rly rep those hands credibly on the river. Also, any other Kx hands besides the above aren't really in your preflop 4b peeling range (and probably not even in your 3b range vs that mini stack open)

2.) When you do get to this river spot, If I was in your opponents shoes, I would likely think that your range mostly consists of strongish suited Tx type broadway hands (ATss, KTss, JTss, etc) - as well as a lot of med prs (99-66) and then exactly AJo

So, by betting the river here, you are repping a very narrow river range (basically exlusively KTss/AJo), when you have a lot more med prs/Tx type hands that you may try to bluff with on the river here. If you are going to bluff all of your med prs on the river (and check back your Tx hands), then your river "bluffing range" would be 24 combos (99-66), and your "value range" would be KTss/AJo (3 combos of KTss and 16 combos of AJo, but if your opponent has JJ then he blocks your AJo and reduces those combos down to 8).

So overall, you would be bluffing with 24 combos and would only have 11 value combos, making it an "easy" call for your opponent on the river if he has JJ.

LMK what you think and if all the above makes sense ^^^

A few things, I am repping a linear range pf because all my hands that I 3bet I will call get in against the opener, OTR I can rep hands, like KTs, some combos of KJ as well as AJ, I don't have a many bluffs though, potentially only 44-99 and Axs, where x is below 9 and doesn''t have a club. Given that I should be folding a9s and lower to the 4bet most of the time, I think I need to bluff with a hand like 44, its the bottom of my range, my opponent has played his hand weakly, and frankly if I have a hand otr that I should've folded at an earlier point it is by definition the bottom of my range.

Also I just want to point out I'm not autobetting here with AJ.KJ otf, I'm still behind villain's range and I don't expect him to fold AK or JJ

gotcha - yeah if KJ is in your flop chk back range then that makes it more credible

Lucas,

Thanks for the video. You do a wonderful job conveying your thoughts. I ran the numbers on the Q8's and I believe we are losing with the call. Clearly + Chip Ev but ICM isn't having it. :)

Here's the numbers for reference:

Thanks and keep them coming!

I did some calcs on the Q8s call, because I thought it would be a fold, and thought you might not be taking ICM in to enough consideration.

You need basically 45% to be +cEV in this spot. I agree that he's shoving close to NASH. Let's assume that he's shoving close to NASH after taking in to account the antes, which gives me about 8bb effectively. This assumption will extend our calling range, but even then I feel this is a fold. Let's have a look.

I feel like ICM calcs will actually represent TRUE equity in this situation, as blinds are coming around constantly, chip stacks are pretty even, we don't gain much stealing equity by having a bigger stack etc, so I'd basically take the word of the model on this one. So let's proceed...

So NASH at 8bb comes out to (22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T4s+, 95s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o)

Against this range we have 48.8% equity.

When we lose the hand (51.2%) we have 65 590 and villain has 147 038
When we win the hand (48.8%) we have 209 268 + 3rd place locked up

I saw the payouts at 3:36 in the video, so if I do a quick ICM calc....

If we lose, we have $4151.66 (x.512) = $2125.65
If we win, we have $5846.46 (x.488) = $2853.07
If we fold, we have $4959.52

win+lose = $4978.72

So essentially we have a break-even call. Keeping in mind that this is a slightly optimistic evaluation of his range, and many of his speculative hands are 8x

Q9s fares quite a bit better though. I'd say the Q8s represents the ceiling of my folding range here.

Hey Lucas thought you explained your thoughts well.
@23rd min What would your plan be with Q8s in bb vs a btn 2x if the sb folded given the btn has shown to r/f alot already.Merits of calling vs jamming vs a wide opener?
Thanks

Thanks for going over that spot for me guys, seems like you are correct with ICM considerations its a close fold. If the btn min opened, i think its very close between shove and call. I think given that the sb is very short and that should tighten the btns range I would call. I'd add that the fact that the btn covers me makes shoving less attractive than calling for sure.