I would have folded to villain's 3bet on the flop. After that, I definitely would have folded to villain's turn bet. Hero played this as if he was on the nut flush draw, imo.
In the Q8 hand, if we are checking the turn with most of our bluffs, aren't we a little too imbalanced on this river. We rep a thin value range, and it seems like we are always going to want to bluff this river card with every bluff we get there with. You say villain is a decent reg, so its likely he realizes his range is somewhat capped and hard to defend on the river, no?
Slightly less inclined to bluff. It's not complicated at all - all A-high FDs have a lot more SDV so I'd expect villain to x/b them OTT at least ocasionally. So yeah, I think the Ah river is just about the best one to be bluffing.
@ 17:35 I just think this is a terrible shove with a four straight on the board. I mean, we can break it down extensively with CREV but I think in reality when villain calls that shove OTR, he's often showing up with exactly what he did and I also don't think your fold equity was enough to justify that at all.
My point wasn't to prove that shoving is the best option. I just wanted to show it's not as simple as "4-straight board is an auto c/f for overpairs all the time".
hey jonas on the 94s hand you say that you have 30% EQ against AK but i don't think the villain would play AK this way at all as i think he would most likely just call your raise OTF. I think it is much more likely he has a set, A high flush draw or air.
also do you even feel that comfortable with your hand when you get there? i just think we are going to be coolering ourselves a lot here and i would most likely without reads just fold to to the raise OTF.
Sorry for the late reply, not used to the new website yet.
When it comes to EQ vs AK I was kinda trying to make a point more than anything else. Also on Stars.fr I wouldn't rule out AK at all :)
What I don't expect villain to 3b flop w/ is a naked A-high FD so I'm not worried about being dominated once I hit my flush. Maybe A3hh but that's one combo.
My hand will play fine vs his air/thin value hands and I do still have my FD equity vs his pure value range.
I'm not 100% sure of this but c/r/f FD should be a pretty big mistake overall in this scenario. I'd much rather just c/c then. Think about it - you can not only c/c on all the turns that you hit a pair on but you also get a pretty decent value hand on 9 additional turns - do you really wanna be blow away of this equity?
I'd be more inclinced to c/c the suited ones. I think in-game I'd go like 50/50 between cbet and c/c with all other 13 combos. I think in a vacuum both options are equally good.
Double/tripple candidates would be Tx/Jx hands unless the turn is a Q/K/A then I'd prefer Kx/Qx hands. Basically on blanks you wanna be blocking overpairs and on broadway turns his strongest broadway floats like KQ AQ.
Hey Man, great content and thanks for everything. I just have a simple question. I know you x/r on flop with the Q8 hand on the flop. Do you also think it's acceptable to fold it as well? I don't recall you going over that line and comparing it to the x/r. Thanks again for your time and content, have a great day man!
I want to chime in on the discussion about the AA hand. I'm not entirely sure, but when calculating the EV of chk river, doesn't CREV take into account that we are always x/calling when facing a bet (as that is what's shown in the tree), thus lowering the EV of chk a little bit ?
If this is true, this would make check(folding) a little bit more attractive/more +EV, though i still agree with you that it's probably a close decision either way.
Yep, you're right. Huge mistake on my part. I just quickly checked it and it's now pretty much equal EVs whether we c/f every single time or jam if we do get called by his strongest TP+ (KQ+). The point I was trying to illustrate still stands though not as well as I initially thought.
Ok, thanks for checking that again in CREV. I think this is just one of those spots that separates the crushers from the average grinders. The fact that he probably raises some of his stronger hands before the river supports your point as well and when it is that close in EV, jamming also allows us to have more bluffs and still feel good when he calls it off with KQ :-)
Yep, if I wanted a more solid gameplan that's what I'd do - I wouldn't raise anything OTF and raise just about everything OTT but against this villain I'm just gonna raise a lot OTF and then again a lot OTT. It's purely exploitative.
I don't have a better explanation for this really, I'd even go as far as saying that you're probably right - leave any x/callable hand as a x/c OTF. I just don't really do much c/raising OTT (it makes it really hard to properly keep track of your ranges) overall so it's not an option I consider every single time.
I guess there's smthing to be said about him having a lot of weak hands that still have 2 overcards to my hand and will often times x/b and if they do catch it OTT/OTR I won't be able to bluff him of them while if I x/r he's just folding them every single time. It's a pretty thin argument and it would involve a lot of calculations which I haven't done so don't take this for granted.
Sorry didn't mean to flag your reply Jonas I meant to reply to it :P What I was going to say is It's definitely a lot harder to think about our ranges ott in a spot like this in game, maybe the mistakes we might make could make the flop line better in the moment. Perhaps this would have to be a spot we should work on away from the tables before implementing.
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94s..on the turn you need 25% eq...
Either I made a mistake in saying the wrong words or HM2 would disagree with you. Meh, in this case it only can work in my favor :)
I would have folded to villain's 3bet on the flop. After that, I definitely would have folded to villain's turn bet. Hero played this as if he was on the nut flush draw, imo.
The discussion is not gonna go anywhere if your arguments are gonna be the type of "I know better".
In the Q8 hand, if we are checking the turn with most of our bluffs, aren't we a little too imbalanced on this river. We rep a thin value range, and it seems like we are always going to want to bluff this river card with every bluff we get there with. You say villain is a decent reg, so its likely he realizes his range is somewhat capped and hard to defend on the river, no?
Not most, but a lot, yes. Also there's a huge difference between a bluff that has 8h and a one that doesn't.
Jonas I have a ? about the same hand.
Let's say the river is a 2h.. would you be more inclined to bluff this or less inclined and why?
Slightly less inclined to bluff. It's not complicated at all - all A-high FDs have a lot more SDV so I'd expect villain to x/b them OTT at least ocasionally. So yeah, I think the Ah river is just about the best one to be bluffing.
@ 17:35 I just think this is a terrible shove with a four straight on the board. I mean, we can break it down extensively with CREV but I think in reality when villain calls that shove OTR, he's often showing up with exactly what he did and I also don't think your fold equity was enough to justify that at all.
My point wasn't to prove that shoving is the best option. I just wanted to show it's not as simple as "4-straight board is an auto c/f for overpairs all the time".
hey jonas on the 94s hand you say that you have 30% EQ against AK but i don't think the villain would play AK this way at all as i think he would most likely just call your raise OTF. I think it is much more likely he has a set, A high flush draw or air.
also do you even feel that comfortable with your hand when you get there? i just think we are going to be coolering ourselves a lot here and i would most likely without reads just fold to to the raise OTF.
Sorry for the late reply, not used to the new website yet.
When it comes to EQ vs AK I was kinda trying to make a point more than anything else. Also on Stars.fr I wouldn't rule out AK at all :)
What I don't expect villain to 3b flop w/ is a naked A-high FD so I'm not worried about being dominated once I hit my flush. Maybe A3hh but that's one combo.
My hand will play fine vs his air/thin value hands and I do still have my FD equity vs his pure value range.
I'm not 100% sure of this but c/r/f FD should be a pretty big mistake overall in this scenario. I'd much rather just c/c then. Think about it - you can not only c/c on all the turns that you hit a pair on but you also get a pretty decent value hand on 9 additional turns - do you really wanna be blow away of this equity?
Jonas are you cbetting all of the AKo combos (i assume you`re cbetting 3 suited combos 100%) on 952rb, or less and why ?
What are some other good double/triple barrel candidates on this board in your opinion ?
Nice video btw.
I'd be more inclinced to c/c the suited ones. I think in-game I'd go like 50/50 between cbet and c/c with all other 13 combos. I think in a vacuum both options are equally good.
Double/tripple candidates would be Tx/Jx hands unless the turn is a Q/K/A then I'd prefer Kx/Qx hands. Basically on blanks you wanna be blocking overpairs and on broadway turns his strongest broadway floats like KQ AQ.
Hey Man, great content and thanks for everything. I just have a simple question. I know you x/r on flop with the Q8 hand on the flop. Do you also think it's acceptable to fold it as well? I don't recall you going over that line and comparing it to the x/r. Thanks again for your time and content, have a great day man!
Nop, no way I'm folding any gutshot ever when it's a SRP BTNvBB scenario.
Hey Jonas,
first of all, nice video!
I want to chime in on the discussion about the AA hand. I'm not entirely sure, but when calculating the EV of chk river, doesn't CREV take into account that we are always x/calling when facing a bet (as that is what's shown in the tree), thus lowering the EV of chk a little bit ?
If this is true, this would make check(folding) a little bit more attractive/more +EV, though i still agree with you that it's probably a close decision either way.
Cheers.
Yep, you're right. Huge mistake on my part. I just quickly checked it and it's now pretty much equal EVs whether we c/f every single time or jam if we do get called by his strongest TP+ (KQ+). The point I was trying to illustrate still stands though not as well as I initially thought.
Ok, thanks for checking that again in CREV. I think this is just one of those spots that separates the crushers from the average grinders. The fact that he probably raises some of his stronger hands before the river supports your point as well and when it is that close in EV, jamming also allows us to have more bluffs and still feel good when he calls it off with KQ :-)
94s hand, why did you decide to c/r flop as opposed to c/r ott? If he has a high cbet ott wouldn't there be more value in c/r the turn?
Yep, if I wanted a more solid gameplan that's what I'd do - I wouldn't raise anything OTF and raise just about everything OTT but against this villain I'm just gonna raise a lot OTF and then again a lot OTT. It's purely exploitative.
I don't have a better explanation for this really, I'd even go as far as saying that you're probably right - leave any x/callable hand as a x/c OTF. I just don't really do much c/raising OTT (it makes it really hard to properly keep track of your ranges) overall so it's not an option I consider every single time.
I guess there's smthing to be said about him having a lot of weak hands that still have 2 overcards to my hand and will often times x/b and if they do catch it OTT/OTR I won't be able to bluff him of them while if I x/r he's just folding them every single time. It's a pretty thin argument and it would involve a lot of calculations which I haven't done so don't take this for granted.
Sorry didn't mean to flag your reply Jonas I meant to reply to it :P What I was going to say is It's definitely a lot harder to think about our ranges ott in a spot like this in game, maybe the mistakes we might make could make the flop line better in the moment. Perhaps this would have to be a spot we should work on away from the tables before implementing.
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