Is It Worth Calling 3 Barrels Without the Nuts? (3Bet Pot Edition)
Posted by thejericho2
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What is the optimal response knowing that most people underbluff a bit on the river?
Obviously the max exploit would be to fold all our bluffcatchers but I guess it's not your approach or what you will suggest?
I guess we can fold like 25% more to make it not so obvious meanwhile still saving some money making -ev calls?
Also it would be interesting if you could analyse turn value to bluff ratio as well. If people are also underbluffing the turn maybe we could already overfold a bit on the turn and it also make our defence easier and more natural on the river facing another underbluffed bet?
I would say that the optimal response would be to fold a bit more on boards where the preflop 3bet caller is perceived strong
I'm not sure if starting to overfold the turn is the way to go. A lot of people will barrel turn w any sort of equity they have, and then, give up river if they don't hit.
Do you ever go max eploit and fold all your bluffcatchers on the river? If so, at what point do you feel you have enough information to do so (e.g. sample size of specific stat(s))?
matlittle
In some cases where I'm vs a weaker player, perhaps. It's hard to do so w/o a decent sample size though.
Defend vs triple IP seems pretty reasonable - it seems like you keep a strong range pf then (just) make hands. Once you don't fast play flop you move best value combos towards river node.
I enjoyed seeing all the OOP turn 2brl cbet sizes used. I think the F/T sizing structure really dictates how many combos are available on the river and therefore how likely villain is the bet. This is an area that study has really helped me understand going smaller vs larger, yet I still feel like I am not slotting hands correctly with my range quite often!
After defend 3b OOP C/C flop I have tried donk leading turn in certain formations. I think the c/c down in this line hoping for bluffs is one of the hardest to get right. After a wide range cbet, against my narrow pf range and very narrow c/c range, I think there is an equity shift such that my range because super strong against his missed range. Offensively attacking the weaker part of villain's range feels better than playing X/guess. Mixed results for me since villain still has plenty of premiums to defend with, but even though they have a positional advantage it is nodes less familiar for them so I think they're likely to make more mistakes.
Thanks for the video! I get a lot out of hearing your thought process.
Thanks for the kind words :)
It takes some time to slot the correct combos in the correct sizes when barreling in 3bet pots. Training w some sims in a GTO trainer will help you out.
I agree w you that x/c in 3bp OOP is what of the hardest spots in NLH. There are certainly spots where you can lead turn after x/c flop. However, they are few and far between in my experience.
A 2nd part of this analyzing river bet size being value / bluff heavy would be cool to see. I think the river all ins are more value heavy. People tend to bluff smaller size just hoping you missed some draw or fold 2nd pair.
Indeed, that might be a tell. Can be a cool idea to look into it.
Cool video. The oop spots where interesting.
4:00 is the flop call with a5 standard facing the big cbet and we have only a gutter and overcard? Maybe more standard if we had a bdfd.
9:00 do we need to call turn? We block some of his bluffs with the Ac.
48:30 what about xr jam river? Or should we have the Ac to do that?
Thanks!
Thanks, I enjoyed making it.
A5cc: yeah std flop call when drawing to the nuts, even vs the bigger cbet size.
AKo: no, we can fold. It's not a great call ott and it's an even worse call otr.
QJo: think jamming and calling can be okay. There are better combos though, like ATcx.
7.00 A94r99 with A4
Feels like this spot is never really bluffed, and we are only chopping at best. When our opponent jams rather than bets smaller, it becomes even more grim. Do you thinking calling here might even be -EV against the vast majority of players with Ax?
10.00 JJ2r55 with 99
Similar spot to above, think it's probably underbluffed a lot, although I think it's probably more important to defend here than the previous spot. I can see a good reg 3 barreling here with hands like KQhh or KThh. More passive regs however I don't think would bluff anywhere near enough.
Also for the first hand at 7.00 there are no flop draws, no turn draws, turn is bad for opponent but they bet anyway. Think that an ace might need to size down to get value on the river whereas most people will shove quads thinking that no one will fold an ace.
I agree that the A4 could be an explo fold in that spot. Thing is, he never has AA since AA would always check the turn. So we're only losing vs quads, It's hard to make this fold but I could see it being good sometimes. And yeah, they probably have two sizes otr which would make it easier for us to play then.
For the 99 hand, I don't think that we can ever fold river. It's just too high in our range. And like you mentioned, good regs will have bluffs there. However, I do agree w you that more passive regs will have difficulty finding bluffs in that spot.
13.18 955rJT
Ran this one and it's quite interesting - the J turn is so good for BB as it connects with their high card heavy range, so they get to bet range for 1/2 pot. River shove with AKhh is not PIO approved as the Kh blocks fewer KQ combos as KQhh doesn't get there as frequently for IP as the other combos which have backdoor flush draws on the flop. Ah is funnily enough a good bluffing blocker and AhKo gets bluffed always - because IP should fold some AJs on the river, so Ah unblocks that folding region given that the J is a heart too.
17.00 JTss222
AQo folding almost always on the turn. If you get to the river calling around 50% of the time though, so not a bad play overall.
Enjoyed this format, think it's good to review different lines every now and then to see whether people are bluffing enough! Intuition alone doesn't always get us to the right answer with stuff like this.
Interesting comments on the 955 board. It makes sense that Ah would be a good blocker to bluff w otr w your explanation.
The AQ play is just not great ott because board is paired so outs are tainted. But yeah, River is probably w/e if we get there.
Thanks for the kind words regarding the video format. I appreciate the constructive feedback :) And you are right; intuition alone usually won't be enough for us to decipher all the spots.
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